jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: For the sake of your (and everyone else’s) property insurance rates, we better hope we get a few tranquil years in a row…. Already seeing 20-35% increases this year, with more likely on the way in the years to come because of the last 3+ years. In the past few years parts of Nashville to the north of it has been like a tornado magnet,we havent had one here since 2020.Best area of severe though has always been along the TN/MS/AL border But yes,home insurance has certainly spiked up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I think Feb 20-28 is gonna be a wee bit chilly.... @John1122, I think we are gonna need a Mammoth update from you. Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Normally, I don't post 384 maps, but the ensembles are honking at 12z. It's on..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 hours ago, tnweathernut said: For the sake of your (and everyone else’s) property insurance rates, we better hope we get a few tranquil years in a row…. Already seeing 20-35% increases this year, with more likely on the way in the years to come because of the last 3+ years. No kidding. Mine spiked even though I've never had a claim and have had the same insurance company since 1986. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: There should be some good Mammoth video this next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The Euro Weeklies ext are pretty much frigid once this pattern matures. Really can't ask for a better look. I am not saying it is going to happen, but man....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Here you go, folks. 30 day maps of both precip and temps. Let's lock this in, and get to tracking in a few days. No idea if this happens, but we really can't ask for a better look. This is well within the range of normal ensembles, and not just ext stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The five days leading up to the above maps d10-15....all global ensembles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Below are the lead analogs to the extended maps. I "think the time to watch will be Feb20-28 and possible beyond. Day 8-14 CPC analogs 19680210 19780222 19840302 19770204 19680228 19800210 20050302 19700211 19580217 19950205 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Sorry for the mass dump, I have been sitting on these a few days. This is the Euro control 7d map for the 19-26th. That might be a bit extreme! 7 day departures at -23F below normal (departures and not actual temps)!!! LOL. But models have been keying on this timeframe for several weeks. Now that we are starting to see a bit better, I feel more comfortable with the share. Does this verify? IDK, but they are fun to look at.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I had all of these on deck last night, but wanted to see 24 more hours of model runs. There is not guarantee any of the above is reality, but modeling is leaning strong towards cold(maybe very cold) solutions. One thing which is showing up right now is a VERY strong -NAO which tends to be colder(less likely to hook into the SE ridge) during later winter. When we start to see California get slammed, that is a decidedly Nino signal. Maybe we are about to see the final breaths of Nino, but it is the perfect time of the year for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Below are the lead analogs to the extended maps. I "think the time to watch will be Feb20-28 and possible beyond. Day 8-14 CPC analogs 19680210 19780222 19840302 19770204 19680228 19800210 20050302 19700211 19580217 19950205 March 1970 saw a 9" snowfall in Middle TN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 So, maybe the short story is this, we had a bright, bright sunshiny day on Feb 2. You know who saw his shadow IMBY. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I'm always amazed that they don't post blizzard warnings for the Sierra. I've never seen one at Mammoth. Their winter storm warning says snowfall in excess of 3 inches per hour will cause whiteout conditions, and winds will be 45+ and stronger gusts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Blizzard22 said: Dang it goes from way above normal in West TN to way below normal in East TN. Those are - numbers in West Tn too. I see a -14 departure there near Dyersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Those are - numbers in West Tn too. I see a -14 departure there near Dyersburg. Yeah i looked at it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm always amazed that they don't post blizzard warnings for the Sierra. I've never seen one at Mammoth. Their winter storm warning says snowfall in excess of 3 inches per hour will cause whiteout conditions, and winds will be 45+ and stronger gusts. What kind of actual melted water precip are we talking? That is just an insane amount of water. If that was rain, that would be a monsoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 30day 500 map. Lots of good on that map if you like extended winter. Davis Straits - check. Aleutians - check. PNA/EPO - check. Storm track - check. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 thats pretty wild 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 hours ago, jaxjagman said: This updates in our afternoon each day.But the ensembles are pretty clustered D5 going back into the WP,then by D10 about to be or getting into the WH so we might have to wait until the last week of Feb to get colder it seems like to me The mean has been pretty consistent with bringing the MJO into around phase 8 today and is even just as consistent the last few days with the stopping point.It's having a hard time in the WP.yesterday it was fairly clustered by day 5,not as much today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The 18z GFS is how we get a warm pattern from a cold look...I don't think it is correct. As JB points out, it has problems when very cold air is in southwest Canada - feedback. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Well I mowed my yard for the first time this year. Truly remarkable how green it is. Sadly it appears the cold damaged & maybe even killed some of my shrubs that I just planted. Sigh. Today was absolutely picture perfect. What kind of shrubs?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Could be the kiss of death for early severe which was what i was thinking could happen:sleepy:Explain?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The five days leading up to the above maps d10-15....all global ensembles. Is 5 to 8 BN enough in the valley?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: Is 5 to 8 BN enough in the valley? . Yes, on the ensemble 30 day map further above. That means there are likely colder shots embedded in the valley. For example, TRI finished only -1F for 31 days during January. Even -5 for a week is cold during Feb. But for sure, Feb is not mid Jan. Sun angles work against us and nighttime snows are preferable. Also, those temps are cold for a d10-15 ensemble as ensembles wash out colder and warmer solutions. They are rarely colder than that at this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Explain? . Just shows the potential for a SSWE https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/readme.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Just shows the potential for a SSWE https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/readme.html The map you quoted me at is the wind reversal.To be a major SSWE you still need the temps at 10hpa to rise around 25 degrees,this is probably the easiest site to read the temps,there is nothing happening right now as the temps look steady the last couple days https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: What kind of shrubs?Nandinas again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 hours ago, Matthew70 said: 9 hours ago, PowellVolz said: What kind of shrubs?Nandinas again. They should come back out in spring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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