Carvers Gap Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Winter is probably over except higher elevations like jaxjagman alluded to. My thoughts are already on next winter lol. Imo, if the niña is central based, or cooler in central pacific, game over for most except the west. If the niña, regardless of strength, is east based or cooler off peru, then we should see episodes of cold. Most niñas are front loaded. It was very surprising to see the -pdo as strong as it was this niño We'll see, man. You may be right, but nobody knows the future. I have seen warm springs flip cold far too many times. Agree on next winter.....but again, sometimes winters buck seasonal analogs. We are overdue a snowless winter - forum wide. Those do happen. But I think we possibly see a decent winter again next winter. I think we are in a -NAO cycle, and that will help. With the PDO being a decadal oscillation, it doesn't surprise me that it didn't flip. I do think we are due to see it come up for air at some point. Hopefully that times w/ next winter, though there is no evidence of that at this point. The Nina is showing hints of being centered over the dateline. Not a great signal at this point, but a LONG way to go. My money is on an early winter as well w/ maybe some NAO help and an SSW which we would need for the second half of winter. All of that is assuming the ENSO state. A few years ago, they got the ENSO wrong(for winter) w/ the lead time being June of the same year....a single, volcanic eruption could change everything or even something we haven't thought of yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Regarding JB’s wondering about a possible +PDO next winter, I now think I know where he got that from. If interested, read this post I just made in the Mid-Atlantic forum, where they were also talking about it: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 I just noticed that the 2/25 and 2/26 extended GEFS runs are colder for 3/10-14 vs earlier runs and that the 2/26 run is significantly colder than earlier runs for 3/20+ fwiw. Perhaps this is the very weak SPV having a say so but who knows? And the extended models can’t be trusted regardless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 19 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?). I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter. We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!). We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored. Also, JB thinks the PDO is set to flip positive next winter. I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it. Anyone have a forecast for it? Pattern of how the NINO got broke down from a strong Nino in 1997 into a strong NINA later into 1998,in most ways its very similar. Abstract [1] The intensity of the 1997 El Niño and the 8°C sudden drop in sea surface temperature (SST) around 0°–130°W during the turn into La Niña in 1998 were a surprise to the scientific community. This succession of warm and cold events was observed from start to finish with a comprehensive set of remotely sensed and in situ observations. In this study we employ space-based observations to demonstrate, for the first time, their maturity in capturing the preconditioning, onset, evolution, and decay of the 1997 El Niño and its transition into the 1998 La Niña. An accumulation of warm water in the west and equatorial wave reflection on the western ocean boundary appeared favorable for the development of El Niño. However, the action of a series of westerly wind bursts from December 1996 to June 1997, notably in March 1997, was instrumental in setting up this huge El Niño. The westerly wind bursts excited equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves and advected the eastern edge of the warm pool eastward, which triggered a distinct warming over the central and eastern parts of the equatorial basin. Once these warmed regions joined, the coupling between the SST and surface winds was fully effective, and El Niño reached its mature phase. By that time much of the warm waters of the western equatorial Pacific was transferred toward the east by surface eastward currents. The demise of El Niño and its turn into La Niña in spring 1998 were due to the arrival in the east of various interrelated phenomena. Upwelling was brought from the west by favorable off-equatorial wind stress curl and equatorial Kelvin waves generated by easterly winds and wave reflection on the western ocean boundary. Additional upwelling was brought from the east by equatorial Rossby waves generated by westerly winds. These various upwelling signals were added to the general uplifting of the thermocline because of the slow discharge of the upper layer of the equatorial basin by diverging surface currents. A series of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, characterized by upwelling and opposite surface currents, led to the breakup of the warm waters, the surfacing of the thermocline, and the drastic drop in SST in May 1998 around 0°–130°W. With the arrival of cold water in the east the easterly winds expanded from the west, and La Niña turned into a growing mode. This view of the 1997–1998 El Niño–La Niña, afforded from space, enables the testing of various El Niño theories. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2001jc000850 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Does anyone have or don't mind sharing the sst distribution maps for the 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 niñas? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 31 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Does anyone have or don't mind sharing the sst distribution maps for the 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 niñas? Thanks in advance https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/tables/monthly.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 And one more which is pretty cool...just move the slide: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_monthly/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Well I say, winter is now over with except for a couple of cold spells and the normal blackberry Dogwood winters. Hopefully we don’t have a killing freeze. Except for one week in January this winter was a complete sham.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Well I say, winter is now over with except for a couple of cold spells and the normal blackberry Dogwood winters. Hopefully we don’t have a killing freeze. Except for one week in January this winter was a complete sham.. Yea, pretty similar to the last several but hey, did have that week in January! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 5 hours ago, Matthew70 said: Well I say, winter is now over with except for a couple of cold spells and the normal blackberry Dogwood winters. Hopefully we don’t have a killing freeze. Except for one week in January this winter was a complete sham.. Yep. Many, because of that Week to 10 Days cold spell will say we had a pretty bad Winter this year, lol. Winters have been so non Winter for the last few overall, particularly last Winter, that folks have been desensitized to what a Normal Winter used to be. It's been another mild Winter as far as the Winter as a whole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, weathertree4u2 said: Yea, pretty similar to the last several but hey, did have that week in January! Yeah, at least it beat last year and the last few as far as an extended cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 This winter was substantially better IMBY when compared to last year....not even close. We had school systems closed for a solid week and deservedly so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This winter was substantially better IMBY when compared to last year....not even close. We had school systems closed for a solid week and deservedly so. Decent week of cold weather and a little snow was good, but hated to see winter end after that but we didn't know it yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Just now, Itryatgolf70 said: Decent week of cold weather and a little snow was good, but hated to see winter end after that but we didn't know it yet lol Better than decent. Half a foot in a winter storm...I take it over 4x2" snows any day of the week. Great run. Hate it had to end, but good run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 I am holding one card tight. Got to know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Best week of winter I've had since moving to east TN in 1994. No complaints here at all. Now to find some fish that are biting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Seems like Wise, VA ought to be a good place to better understand long term winter patterns, a place purportedly averaging 50 plus inches of snow and isn't dependent on one or 2 storm tracks to make or break snow totals. When a place averages 8 inches a year it can be fickle, but when you avg 50 inches and your ending up in 20s or less it tends to stick out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 I know we had the great 10 day stretch in January but, the Winter rated as the 3 months of Winter period will still go down as a mild Winter. In area's that Seasonal Snowfall Averages have dropped so low , it will go down as a decent Winter on that premise and on the coldest stretch in several years. Go back to the Averages 30 year's ago and the area's that reached or exceeded their Average this Winter would have been below on Snowfall. Bigbald made a good point irt what I'm conveying. I'm sure glad we got that true Winter stretch as it would have been really hard for snow lover's to take if we hadn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Horrible winter here. Less than an inch of sleet was my seasonal total. I missed a 6" snow event by about 20 miles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Monster Post A little bit of this, and a little bit of that type of post...Be sure to check the links as they have great information. The Rutgers Snow Lab is pretty phenomenal. Part I (The past): Again, I think the GOA low pressure (on steroids) just prior to Christmas cooked our goose. It created a massive Chinook. When the pattern switched to a favorable eastern trough just days after Christmas, there was zero cold air to dump into it. If that GOA doesn't develop, we make out like gangbusters. It wasn't until the back half of the pattern when the NAO matured that we got enough cross polar flow to reach into the SE and connect w/ the active STJ. You can see the storm track clearly. Here is the animated storm map for the season (goes storm-by-storm): https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/js_animate.html?nsteps=151&year=2024&month=2&day=29&type=ruc_snow_precip®ion=National&ts=24&large=1 With the accompanying link, you can see the cold press southwestward during late December and early January. At that point it is just the luck of the draw. With the lack of strong source regions, the cold never really made it into the eastern coastal Plain. I think part of that was an active STJ, and part of it was the cold parked itself in Eurasia. That happens during some winters. Part II (Current): Additionally, I think we have ENSO natural conditions currently (maybe even a bit earlier than predicted): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf I think we kind of are in a quick transition to nada and then Nina. But beware, the potential for a cool, spring(especially mid-later March) due to a Nino rebound/hangover....lurks. I borrowed a graphic from The Weather Channel for ENSO neutral aka La Nada: Part III (Big Picture): Here is a plot for North American/Greenland combined snow cover trends. This forum would have STRUGGLED during the 90s winters after 95-96. Many of those years were El Nino, some supers. They were brutal in terms of snow - and I mean brutal. During one winter, we didn't even quit mowing. You can see that in regards to this graph. Take a look at January 2024 and decadal trend - up. Interestingly, December has really increased while Feb/March (over the years) have decreased. That fits what I am seeing IMBY - more snow in early December than I remember, but less snow at the end of winter. Also, I don't remember much December snow at all as a kid(70s and bell bottoms)...and the linked NCEP confirms less snow during 70s Decembers for NA. Winters seem to be starting a bit earlier in terms of now in the eastern valley, but close up shop during spring earlier. Fun site...link is below the graphic. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/snow-cover/namgnld/1 Again, if you think it is bad now...go look at the 90s..... https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=1 Part IV (Future): The strength of the La Nina(the Nina watch has been issued) will be key to next winter. If the La Nina is weak, I am going to feel pretty good for most areas of the state. If it is moderate - just middle and west. If it is strong - torch. I look a little less at where it is centered and look more at its strength. Right now to my eyes, it looks weak. Weak La Nina patterns have been very good to western and middle portions(even to Knoxville) recently...some years weak La Nina patterns can push well east of that. And those years have been great. Summer impacts would likely mean an increasing dry and hot pattern for July and August(likely lasting into early-mid fall) w/ a sharp switch to a colder pattern for November. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 8 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Monster Post A little bit of this, and a little bit of that type of post...Be sure to check the links as they have great information. The Rutgers Snow Lab is pretty phenomenal. Part I (The past): Again, I think the GOA low pressure (on steroids) just prior to Christmas cooked our goose. It created a massive Chinook. When the pattern switched to a favorable eastern trough just days after Christmas, there was zero cold air to dump into it. If that GOA doesn't develop, we make out like gangbusters. It wasn't until the back half of the pattern when the NAO matured that we got enough cross polar flow to reach into the SE and connect w/ the active STJ. You can see the storm track clearly. Here is the animated storm map for the season (goes storm-by-storm): https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/js_animate.html?nsteps=151&year=2024&month=2&day=29&type=ruc_snow_precip®ion=National&ts=24&large=1 With the accompanying link, you can see the cold press southwestward during late December and early January. At that point it is just the luck of the draw. With the lack of strong source regions, the cold never really made it into the eastern coastal Plain. I think part of that was an active STJ, and part of it was the cold parked itself in Eurasia. That happens during some winters. Part II (Current): Additionally, I think we have ENSO natural conditions currently (maybe even a bit earlier than predicted): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf I think we kind of are in a quick transition to nada and then Nina. But beware, the potential for a cool, spring(especially mid-later March) due to a Nino rebound/hangover....lurks. I borrowed a graphic from The Weather Channel for ENSO neutral aka La Nada: Part III (Big Picture): Here is a plot for North American/Greenland combined snow cover trends. This forum would have STRUGGLED during the 90s winters after 95-96. Many of those years were El Nino, some supers. They were brutal in terms of snow - and I mean brutal. During one winter, we didn't even quit mowing. You can see that in regards to this graph. Take a look at January 2024 and decadal trend - up. Interestingly, December has really increased while Feb/March (over the years) have decreased. That fits what I am seeing IMBY - more snow in early December than I remember, but less snow at the end of winter. Also, I don't remember much December snow at all as a kid(70s and bell bottoms)...and the linked NCEP confirms less snow during 70s Decembers for NA. Winters seem to be starting a bit earlier in terms of now in the eastern valley, but close up shop during spring earlier. Fun site...link is below the graphic. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/snow-and-ice-extent/snow-cover/namgnld/1 Again, if you think it is bad now...go look at the 90s..... https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=0&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=1 Part IV (Future): The strength of the La Nina(the Nina watch has been issued) will be key to next winter. If the La Nina is weak, I am going to feel pretty good for most areas of the state. If it is moderate - just middle and west. If it is strong - torch. I look a little less at where it is centered and look more at its strength. Right now to my eyes, it looks weak. Weak La Nina patterns have been very good to western and middle portions(even to Knoxville) recently...some years weak La Nina patterns can push well east of that. And those years have been great. Summer impacts would likely mean an increasing dry and hot patter for July and August(likely lasting into early-mid fall) w/ a sharp switch to a colder pattern for November. The Feb outlook should be available soon. I feel that based is more important than strength imo. As crazy as this sounds, we want a +qbo and higher sunspots. Typically, they can correlate with cold patterns. They do better with niña usually if they set up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Yea, pretty similar to the last several but hey, did have that week in January! The week or so in January was epic though. 9” here, still had 4” or so a week later. Probably never said that before. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Truckee California : https://www.tahoeweathercam.com/mthardware.html 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 I'm going to try with a March/ spring mid/ long range thread. Saw some snow at 4am. That's all I got. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 14 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: The Feb outlook should be available soon. I feel that based is more important than strength imo. As crazy as this sounds, we want a +qbo and higher sunspots. Typically, they can correlate with cold patterns. They do better with niña usually if they set up. When in doubt, ENSO state and strength generally rule the roost in my experience. Solar max does certainly play a part in the weather. In fact, I believe that volcanism and solar are the two biggest drivers of our weather. I just don't think we understand those cycles very well because as humans we haven't observed them very long at all. Generally, it is pretty tough to find a decent winter where the QBO is not descending or in the negative range. As always, there are exceptions to many weather analog rules. One more interesting piece will be if the PDO does in fact reverse. Generally, I think we are at the beginning of a -NAO cycle during winter, and that will also play a part. The Nino location does play a roll in where the SER will set up shop. But generally a weak Nina means that the east based Nina would still be weak regardless of centering. Lately, it seems the IO is probably as big a driver as the Pacific...maybe bigger. Generally, in order, these are what drive my bigger picture thinking: Decadal indices or teleconnections: 1. AMO (easily the biggest driver IMHO) 2. PDO (very important when the AMO is not in a favorable state as it hasn't been since the late 80s) Seasonal 1. ENSO state and strength 2. MJO...which really is an extension of the IO lately 3. NAO 4. EPO/PNA (3 and 4 flip flop depending on which end of the forum one lives) 5. QBO which is probably related to 3 and 4. 6. When summer ends...extended summer generally causes problems for winter patterns as source regions in NA often don't get cold enough for long enough. 7. Recent seasonal trends(and maybe this should be higher up the list). The TN Valley will go through snow droughts, and when we are in one, nothing works...see many winters during the 90s. For next winter ENSO, PDO, MJO, and NAO/EPO potential will drive my ideas. In general for MBY, I think winter starts early and ends early. That could be quite different for your BY this winter due to your location being further west. I am pretty bullish at this point for middle and western regions. E TN is a wild card, and that will depend on the strength of the almost certain SER. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 And as a reminder, the 4-6 week pattern cycle window (been warm) closes within the next 10 days. You can see the pattern shake-up on both the GFS and CMC at 12z. Now, I don't claim to know what the next pattern cycle holds. I do suspect that March 10-31 should be more interesting than the last six weeks. I won't rule out cold and wintry weather. The 12z CMC provides an example of where this could lead. The Euro LR ext (control) has been fairly adamant of an anomalous cold shot during the last two weeks of March. That control has been pretty decent this winter and now early spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 This is what I am looking at...Listed below are 4 maps. Two are week 4 control runs (GEFS ext, and Euro LR ext), one is a week 3 ensemble (GEFS ext), and the last is week 3 (Euro LR ext control). I have been watching this time frame for several days(prob weeks). Due to "mission fatigue" on the forum, I have held this timeframe a bit closer to the best than normal. However, with the operationals run beginning to hint at this, it is worth noting. Note that Canada is very cold. Certainly, we could get the rugged pulled out from under us. It has occurred at this range just a few weeks ago, but this signal has been very steady and fits with the pattern cycle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 56 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And as a reminder, the 4-6 week pattern cycle window (been warm) closes within the next 10 days. You can see the pattern shake-up on both the GFS and CMC at 12z. Now, I don't claim to know what the next pattern cycle holds. I do suspect that March 10-31 should be more interesting than the last six weeks. I won't rule out cold and wintry weather. The 12z CMC provides an example of where this could lead. The Euro LR ext (control) has been fairly adamant of an anomalous cold shot during the last two weeks of March. That control has been pretty decent this winter and now early spring. I tell you what that 4 to 6 week window you preach about is darn close every single time just about. There is definitely something to that in my opinion going off of your theories. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 On 2/29/2024 at 9:29 PM, Daniel Boone said: Truckee California : https://www.tahoeweathercam.com/mthardware.html They are getting hammered on that cam right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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