Carvers Gap Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 58 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: https://x.com/markskaggs10/status/1760342557572174082?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg . I always kind of enjoy watching shortwaves during spring, especially for the mountains. Back when I lived in JC, those little shortwaves could leave 1-2" of snow on northwest facing slopes. I think we get one more window for those somewhere during the last 2-3 weeks of March or early April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I don't know what the issue w/ LR ext modeling is. It may just be LR ext modeling is not great during Jan/Feb. I suspect modeling missed the IO/SOI/MC area forecast. The anomalous GOA slp during December was not great. I also think the NAO is terribly difficult to forecast at any range, and that was a big miss. The NAO could have given us a chance for cold later this winter. When modeling lost it....flipped warm. So, I think the combo of difficulty in modeling the NAO and also MC regions modeling failures caused the bust. The strat split miss probably didn't help. Guessing we also have an ascending QBO and declining El Nino. Again, not all El Nino winters are cold and stormy. We thankfully got a decent, little window. But the 90s El Nino winters were hot garbage with the exception of a couple of really notable events. And honestly, outside of last winter, three of the last four winters have had some decent winter weather to track for at least some portion of the forum area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I don't know what the issue w/ LR ext modeling is. It may just be LR ext modeling is not great during Jan/Feb. I suspect modeling missed the IO/SOI/MC area forecast. The anomalous GOA slp during December was not great. I also think the NAO is terribly difficult to forecast at any range, and that was a big miss. The NAO could have given us a chance for cold later this winter. When modeling lost it....flipped warm. So, I think the combo of difficulty in modeling the NAO and also MC regions modeling failures caused the bust. The strat split miss probably didn't help. Guessing we also have an ascending QBO and declining El Nino. Again, not all El Nino winters are cold and stormy. We thankfully got a decent, little window. But the 90s El Nino winters were hot garbage with the exception of a couple of really notable events. And honestly, outside of last winter, three of the last four winters have had some decent winter weather to track for at least some portion of the forum area. 3 of the last 4 winters in MBY I’ve had at least one 6” snow and two 7-9” snow. Not at all going to complain. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 26 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: 3 of the last 4 winters in MBY I’ve had at least one 6” snow and two 7-9” snow. Not at all going to complain. . Yea, technically, I have done well also north of Nashville the last two seasons, however, I would have liked to have had a longer "winter" season that just the week we had in January this year but technically both seasons I have had above the seasonal average in snowfall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Yea, technically, I have done well also north of Nashville the last two seasons, however, I would have liked to have had a longer "winter" season that just the week we had in January this year but technically both seasons I have had above the seasonal average in snowfall Winter definitely doesn’t last long anymore . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Winter definitely doesn’t last long anymore . Yea, I shudder to think what would happen to the forum area if we had a winter like we had when we were kids in the 1970's 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Yea, I shudder to think what would happen to the forum area if we had a winter like we had when we were kids in the 1970's I’m almost 50 so I remember a little of the 70’s but the 80’s is where I really remember. My first memory was an ice storm in Knoxville maybe around 82’. I remember me and my dad going from Powell to Knoxville to pick my grandma up and take her home. She was Knoxville’s City Court Clerk. I also remember the April 1987 snow storm that’s been talked about already. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I don't know what the issue w/ LR ext modeling is. It may just be LR ext modeling is not great during Jan/Feb. I suspect modeling missed the IO/SOI/MC area forecast. The anomalous GOA slp during December was not great. I also think the NAO is terribly difficult to forecast at any range, and that was a big miss. The NAO could have given us a chance for cold later this winter. When modeling lost it....flipped warm. So, I think the combo of difficulty in modeling the NAO and also MC regions modeling failures caused the bust. The strat split miss probably didn't help. Guessing we also have an ascending QBO and declining El Nino. Again, not all El Nino winters are cold and stormy. We thankfully got a decent, little window. But the 90s El Nino winters were hot garbage with the exception of a couple of really notable events. And honestly, outside of last winter, three of the last four winters have had some decent winter weather to track for at least some portion of the forum area. We have had great winters the last three years in North Mississippi... 4-6 inch storm last month, 2 inches and then a pretty significant ice storm in 2022- 2023 and 12 inches in one week in 2021-2022. This has been a great set up for the Western half of the forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The mean has been aiming basically skipping the cold phases for the longest time and dont seem to be backing down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: The mean has been aiming basically skipping the cold phases for the longest time and dont seem to be backing down If there is convection around the dateline, the mjo shouldn't be going again towards the mc. It didn't do it in January, especially the first half. Very interesting this winter and I imagine some forecasters got the winter correct, despite alot of conflicting signals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Seems like me there is going to be a strong Kelvin wave moving off AFRICA the next few days and excite the MJO and strenghten the signal into the Maritime,so much for my IO thinking it would go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: The mean has been aiming basically skipping the cold phases for the longest time and dont seem to be backing down This is probably correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: The mean has been aiming basically skipping the cold phases for the longest time and dont seem to be backing down Isn't 5 a cold phase during March? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Yep. Phase 5 MJO centered on FMA is cold. If the MJO above is correct, that isn't overly warm for mid-March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Yep. Phase 5 MJO centered on FMA is cold. If the MJO above is correct, that isn't overly warm for mid-March. I agree that being in phase 5 in March isn’t itself a warm signal. We happened to have talked about this same thing earlier today in the SE. I had myself assumed it was similar to met winter and thus had at first assumed phases 4 and 5 had a warm signal. Then I was corrected and I agreed with the correction when I saw what’s below. Looking closely at it, it shows both 4 and 5 averaging near normal for FMA in both the SE and TN Valley fwiw with average anomalies between -0.3C and +0.3C. I say fwiw because as we know the MJO is just one factor even though an important one. These are averages of numerous cases with some BN, some NN, and some AN. Phase 8 is also mainly near normal while 6 and 7 have averaged generally warmer than normal while 1-3 have averaged mainly colder than normal per the same source. I saw that today’s Weeklies start off mild for most days of Mar 1-10 in much of our areas with a transition to cold dominating the 2nd half of Mar. However, I’m taking especially the 2nd half of Mar cold prediction with a huge grain due to recent too cold predictions by all of the models. The Weeklies have strong -AO/-NAO blocking along with a moderate +PNA/Aleutian troughing. The problem though is that the AO and NAO forecasts made just 2 weeks ago for now/late Feb were a huge bust: Also, the +PNA ended much more quickly than forecasted. So, it remains to be seen to say the least whether or not these will verify though it appears that the forecast for -AO and -NAO would probably have a weak SPV to support them. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I guess it can.Last time it happened here was 2007,but we moved here about three years after,we didnt get those temps in Jacksonville,we was starting to hit the beach...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 26 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I guess it can.Last time it happened here was 2007,but we moved here about three years after,we didnt get those temps in Jacksonville,we was starting to hit the beach...lol Take that back,we moved to Lawrenceburg a couple years after the F5 hit Lawerenceburg a couple people took me on a tour where the tornado path went through there,think we moved to Nashville in 2010,not really positive on the exact dates but i dont remember it getting that cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Take that back,we moved to Lawrenceburg a couple years after the F5 hit Lawerenceburg a couple people took me on a tour where the tornado path went through there,think we moved to Nashville in 2010,not really positive on the exact dates but i dont remember it getting that cold I recall that in 2007. Things were almost fully leafed out, like two days after, all the leaves were brown and dropped. Some trees lost about two weeks of growth as they didn't leaf out again overnight of course. Seems like it was upper teens here where I am north of Nashville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 hours ago, GaWx said: I agree that being in phase 5 in March isn’t itself a warm signal. We happened to have talked about this same thing earlier today in the SE. I had myself assumed it was similar to met winter and thus had at first assumed phases 4 and 5 had a warm signal. Then I was corrected and I agreed with the correction when I saw what’s below. Looking closely at it, it shows both 4 and 5 averaging near normal for FMA in both the SE and TN Valley fwiw with average anomalies between -0.3C and +0.3C. I say fwiw because as we know the MJO is just one factor even though an important one. These are averages of numerous cases with some BN, some NN, and some AN. Phase 8 is also mainly near normal while 6 and 7 have averaged generally warmer than normal while 1-3 have averaged mainly colder than normal per the same source. I saw that today’s Weeklies start off mild for most days of Mar 1-10 in much of our areas with a transition to cold dominating the 2nd half of Mar. However, I’m taking especially the 2nd half of Mar cold prediction with a huge grain due to recent too cold predictions by all of the models. The Weeklies have strong -AO/-NAO blocking along with a moderate +PNA/Aleutian troughing. The problem though is that the AO and NAO forecasts made just 2 weeks ago for now/late Feb were a huge bust: Also, the +PNA ended much more quickly than forecasted. So, it remains to be seen to say the least whether or not these will verify though it appears that the forecast for -AO and -NAO would probably have a weak SPV to support them. Good post. I think there is an error either in programming or data input right now which is resulting in a LR ext bias (across modeling) for cold during weeks 3-4. I can't put my finger on it. What shows up is a double block (NAO along w/ PNA or EPO), and it is not verifying or even coming close to verifying. LR modeling has been pretty decent since last Feb...until this past late-Jan. So, I wonder w/ the changing wavelengths if modeling just can keep up during spring shoulder season? I do wonder if data input is a problem - meaning modeling cannot keep up w the collapsing El Nino. In other words, SSTs are changing so quickly that modeling is in constant "catch-up" mode. But yes, HUGE grains of salt for anything during weeks 3-4(cold or warm) right now. I did notice the Euro ext control and ensemble on the Euro LR ext did get out of sync prior to the temp bust...controls flipped back warm and caught the Feb temp bust very early in the process. As for the MJO, I don't think the signal is super clear...at least not clear to modeling. It is very low amplitude on the CPC plots this morning. And while phase 8 is cold during winter, by late March...it looks exactly like what we have in regards to temps across the lower 48. Also, doesn't the MJO have less influence during March as well? Anyway, this is the look(below) that has been in the LR for much of Jan and Feb, and hasn't verifying. The GEFS ext is a bit more realistic w/ a transient NAO(which has been the pattern this winter) vs one which locks in. IF(huge if) that verifies, that is a ver wintry pattern for higher elevations...but like you, just not sure I buy it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GEFS might be more right with the MJO.It could be what some of the other models are showing the signal into the Maritime is actually because of a Equatorial Kelvin Wave.Dont know if it will be right,it dont seem to have much support 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I dunno,just seems like the MJO could be getting destructive interference from the EKW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run. I’m kinda in spring mode now. Seems like a warm February tends to lead a delayed spring. I’m sure we will have a couple cool days down the road but I hate extended cool periods in April. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 If the Euro Weeklies are going warm, I'm going to expect a cold snap. I believe in Murphy's capacity to thwart and troll spring breaks in our region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 On 2/22/2024 at 9:55 PM, *Flash* said: If the Euro Weeklies are going warm, I'm going to expect a cold snap. I believe in Murphy's capacity to thwart and troll spring breaks in our region. Word. Yeah, for sure! Weeklies are still cold, but have trended warmer....so, we will watch the trend. We are in a "base warm" pattern currently, and I don't see any evidence in the next three weeks for that to change. But yeah, when Spring Break arrives I expect frost all the way to Tampa! Powell is right. Warm February's often result in an extended cold shot during spring. And there are pretty good reasons for that. It usually means that the TPV has been pretty stable at higher latitudes. Usually(not always), it is going to get disrupted by changing wavelengths during spring and head towards middle latitudes. Sometimes we are fortunate and it just sits tight and doesn't move. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Composites in March with the MJO into the phase 3 and not into the Maritime.there is some lag time but not the degree we see here in our parts.Then you factor in with our lag here in NA with the ENSO should be something similar.I'm starting to think what was said a few days ago by some might be right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Maybe When we had the SSW earlier in Jan it effected the atmospheric Rossby wave train to some degree. around this time frame there was also a real strong Equatorial Rossby Wave,so the balance got thrown off with the pattern,so this could possibly be why our pattern went to junk seemingly 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Maybe When we had the SSW earlier in Jan it effected the atmospheric Rossby wave train to some degree. around this time frame there was also a real strong Equatorial Rossby Wave,so the balance got thrown off with the pattern,so this could possibly be why our pattern went to junk seemingly Yeah, I've been thinking along those lines as a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Maybe When we had the SSW earlier in Jan it effected the atmospheric Rossby wave train to some degree. around this time frame there was also a real strong Equatorial Rossby Wave,so the balance got thrown off with the pattern,so this could possibly be why our pattern went to junk seemingly Very interesting. Thanks for posting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24 Share Posted February 24 Just noticed the GFS just joined the GEPS,the next reversal is around the 6th of March,wouldnt be winter cold but still colder maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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