Itryatgolf70 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is one which actually rivals 93' but gets a little less press. This was my spring break in HS. We couldn't leave the house for the entire break - snowed in. Folks raised in E TN, E KY, and SW VA know to keep looking back over one shoulder. Now, I am in not forecasting this, but LR ext modeling is showing cold worthy of this type of storm. It can and does snow at lower elevations in many areas during March and sometimes April, though this is an extreme example. This is a great article about the storm.....It includes synoptical set-ups and photos. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm If the niña is central based this next winter, we may have another warm winter most likely so we should hope that it's more east based, similar to this niño currently. If it's east based, most likely December will be warm but after that it may turn colder. Looking at the big picture very early look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This is one which actually rivals 93' but gets a little less press. This was my spring break in HS. We couldn't leave the house for the entire break - snowed in. Folks raised in E TN, E KY, and SW VA know to keep looking back over one shoulder. Now, I am in not forecasting this, but LR ext modeling is showing cold worthy of this type of storm. It can and does snow at lower elevations in many areas during March and sometimes April, though this is an extreme example. This is a great article about the storm.....It includes synoptical set-ups and photos. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm This got shuffled to the previous page along w/ some other great content by forum posters(go back and read all of it). This is just kind of interesting from a hobby perspective. This is an early April winter storm that began w/ a slp in the Lakes (yep...a low in the Lakes), trailing cold front that hit the GOM, and a slp that climbed as an inland runner. Really, it is a textbook Apps snow storm that began as a wave along a strong cold front. That is one of the reasons that I watch strong cold fronts during spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This got shuffled to the previous page, but I encourage everyone to read about this early April winter storm, if not just because it is interesting. This is a storm that began w/ a slp in the Lakes (yep...a low in the Lakes), trailing cold front that hit the GOM, and a slp that climbed as an inland runner. Really, it is a textbook Apps runner that began as a wave along a strong cold front. That is one of the reasons that I watch strong cold fronts during spring. Yep. Remember it well. Did have Pics of it. It started on Thursday the 2nd and ended Sunday the 5th. I took Pics each Morning of it. It was constant steady Snow the whole period. It was simply amazing. The LP did as you said and then got cut off from the flow and became a cutoff Low over the Southern Apps. It was raining in Detroit and Buffalo while snowing here. There was no drifting in the Valleys, just straight down Snowfall. I remember it being in the 70's for a couple weeks before that. So ground was warm. I remember sticking my hand through to the ground and it would be wet underneath. I had about 2 feet on ground at deepest near Pennington gap. A Neighbor had a junk car parked on North side of his home and there was 30" on it. WCYB reported a report from High knob near Norton of 54". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said: Yep. Remember it well. Did have Pics of it. It started on Thursday the 2nd and ended Sunday the 5th. I took Pics each Morning of it. It was constant steady Snow the whole period. It was simply amazing. The LP did as you said and then got cut off from the flow and became a cutoff Low over the Southern Apps. It was raining in Detroit and Buffalo while snowing here. There was no drifting in the Valleys, just straight down Snowfall. I remember it being in the 70's for a couple weeks before that. So ground was warm. I remember sticking my hand through to the ground and it would be wet underneath. I had about 2 feet on ground at deepest near Pennington gap. A Neighbor had a junk car parked on North side of his home and there was 30" on it. WCYB reported a report from High knob near Norton of 54". I edited the Apps runner part...should read textbook Apps snowstorm. I liked snow, even then. But I have to admit, that maybe was a bit much given that my entire spring break was stuck in the house. And yes, the snow was a paste job. Man, 54"?!?!?! That is insane. Yeah, I don't remember the run-up to that storm even being remotely cold at all. It caught everyone off guard. There are a couple of Pisgah storms I am going to have to look up later. They were during the early 90s or late 80s. They may have been back-to-back. This spring kind of has that feel where a well-timed cold shot could cause some mischief. I wonder if we dig back through met records if we find an SSW lurking in the shadows of one or all of those storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: I edited the Apps runner part...should read textbook Apps snowstorm. I liked snow, even then. But I have to admit, that maybe was a bit much given that my entire spring break was stuck in the house. And yes, the snow was a paste job. Man, 54"?!?!?! That is insane. Yeah, I don't remember the run-up to that storm even being remotely cold at all. It caught everyone off guard. There are a couple of Pisgah storms I am going to have to look up later. They were during the early 90s or late 80s. They may have been back-to-back. This spring kind of has that feel where a well-timed cold shot could cause some mischief. I wonder if we dig back through met records if we find an SSW lurking in the shadows of one or all of those storms. Yeah, the morning of the day it started it was in the lower 50's here around 10 a.m.. The Front came through with just sprinkles. A rain snow mix began at 1:15 and fairly quickly turned to all Snow. It was all snow at start above 1500 Feet. It ended around the same time, oddly 3 days later. The Temp hung around 28-30 day and night during the period after it initially fell to that. Really unusual in so many ways. The Pisgah Storm was late May of 91 or 92. I'm thinking nearly 5 feer piled up at the Summit . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Found it. 1992. @Daniel Boonelooks like another stalled (or close to it) slp along a sharp cold front. My apologies to everyone w/ this -> This was early May!!! LOL. Just having some fun. Most of the snow fell above 2000'. Mt Pisgah had 61" of snow. That is mind boggling, AND they dealt with mixing issues at times. I do know that Beauty Spot near Newport can get absolutely hammered during March. Again, sharp cold fronts can produce at times. Another great write-up... https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2017/05/remembering-the-surprise-spring-snow-in-may-1992/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Found it. 1992. @Daniel Boonelooks like another stalled (or close to it) slp along a sharp cold front. My apologies to everyone w/ this -> This was early May!!! LOL. Just having some fun. Most of the snow fell above 2000'. Mt Pisgah had 61" of snow. That is mind boggling, AND they dealt with mixing issues at times. I do know that Beauty Spot near Newport can get absolutely hammered during March. Again, sharp cold fronts can produce at times. Another great write-up... https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2017/05/remembering-the-surprise-spring-snow-in-may-1992/ This was a very memorable storm here in Haywood. As reading the write up it's mentions Haywood and all the snow we got even in the Valley. I was only 7 but my mom told me we where out of school for a week. People were stranded everywhere. It's Snowed more than a foot up in the mountains in the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Does anyone know where I can access old gfs and or euro precip maps? Like 5 days leading into a certain winter storm and what the models were showing during that period. I used to have the site but lost it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: This is one which actually rivals 93' but gets a little less press. This was my spring break in HS. We couldn't leave the house for the entire break - snowed in. Folks raised in E TN, E KY, and SW VA know to keep looking back over one shoulder. Now, I am in not forecasting this, but LR ext modeling is showing cold worthy of this type of storm. It can and does snow at lower elevations in many areas during March and sometimes April, though this is an extreme example. This is a great article about the storm.....It includes synoptical set-ups and photos. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm I have home video footage of this storm. I was only 6 months old, so I surely don't remember it. My uncle filmed a good bit of it. I may try to film a little onto my phone and upload on YouTube. Very interesting to see that kind of storm in April. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 @Holston_River_Rambler, bowling ball around 300 on the 18z GFS. That will actually work - rain for that solution, but a stalled or slow rolling bowling ball is a good solution. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 19 hours ago, BuCoVaWx said: I have home video footage of this storm. I was only 6 months old, so I surely don't remember it. My uncle filmed a good bit of it. I may try to film a little onto my phone and upload on YouTube. Very interesting to see that kind of storm in April. What is your YouTube channel ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: What is your YouTube channel ? I wasn't able to film it today, will definitely get it tomorrow. I'll get back to you on the channel. Haven't used it in years lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Epic model failure! How a cold forecast goes torch. I'm out until spring severe. Except Banter, always college basketball. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Epic model failure! How a cold forecast goes torch. I'm out until spring severe. Except Banter, always college basketball. Think there was some bad data inputed into the model or just not explainable? The problem that I see is that the Euro Weeklies still look like they have the same cold bias (same exact setup) from mid-March to early April.....wondering if that is the same, false signal???? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 The strat has done that with every attempted warming this winter. Sad. I have to admit @Carvers Gap I'm losing heart. Crocuses and daffodils now spring where the elk once trod. Trees are budding out on top of little Brushy mt. The MJO avoids the western hemisphere like Dale Farmer avoids Boozy Creek. I told myself after the "el nino" tongue-in-cheek comment I needed some time off until the weekend, but I can't not check on Americanwx yet. Too early. But even today's February bowling balls hate us and want us to die : I think we even have some sort of a pseudo Norlun trough over the Carolinas aimed at Damascus VA 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 MJO is going into 1-2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The strat has done that with every attempted warming this winter. Sad. I have to admit @Carvers Gap I'm losing heart. Crocuses and daffodils now spring where the elk once trod. Trees are budding out on top of little Brushy mt. The MJO avoids the western hemisphere like Dale Farmer avoids Boozy Creek. I told myself after the "el nino" tongue-in-cheek comment I needed some time off until the weekend, but I can't not check on Americanwx yet. Too early. But even today's February bowling balls hate us and want us to die : I think we even have some sort of a pseudo Norlun trough over the Carolinas aimed at Damascus VA Yeah I've been tuned out since shortly after the January snow week. Some winters it just wants to snow and every system just works out. Others are like this and we have 3+ systems scoot south and whiff everyone. Tough draw of the cards this winter. Early season bushes/trees have buds here. It was very warm but has been colder recently especially the mornings. Just need a few good days in the low 60s and spring has sprung! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Have a feeling March 10-31 could be pretty cold. Euro Weeklies control was crazy cold this afternoon. It has been a pretty decent indicator of cold this winter. It was the first to catch the late Feb bust. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I wonder if the model mayhem this winter has been due to the constant pressure the strat PV has been under for what seems like the entirety of the winter season. This year just seemed anomalous to me in that regard but maybe it’s not as unusual as I think it’s been. One thing about this hobby is just when you think you’ve got a decent understanding of how everything “should” work, Mother Nature throws you a Mariano Rivera cutter…. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 14 minutes ago, BNAwx said: I wonder if the model mayhem this winter has been due to the constant pressure the strat PV has been under for what seems like the entirety of the winter season. This year just seemed anomalous to me in that regard but maybe it’s not as unusual as I think it’s been. One thing about this hobby is just when you think you’ve got a decent understanding of how everything “should” work, Mother Nature throws you a Mariano Rivera cutter…. I can appreciate this reference. Rivera's career ERA (2.21) will soon be the average snow total for most of our respective locales. P.S. It's a shame he never won a Cy Young. He deserved it in 2005. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwoodian Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I can appreciate this reference. Rivera's career ERA (2.21) will soon be the average snow total for most of our respective locales. P.S. It's a shame he never won a Cy Young. He deserved it in 2005. Wow I didn’t know that about winning a Cy Young. I would have bet money he would have. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 02/20/24 Valid - 02/28/24 - 03/12/24 RMM observations show a westward retreat of the MJO signal over the Western Pacific earlier this month, but the MJO has since resumed its eastward propagation and has moved into phase 8 (Western Hemisphere) in RMM space. Consistent with model guidance since last week, a much weakened MJO is generally favored in the RMM forecasts, with model solutions showing the signal mostly remaining within the unit circle during the next two weeks. However, there is some question as to whether this weakening is reflective of a disorganizing MJO or the removal of the 120-day mean which is strongly skewing the MJO signal to the right in RMM space. Upper-level velocity potential anomaly and OLR forecasts suggest the latter, which depict a more coherent MJO moving forward. Anomalous lower-level westerlies forecast continue to enhance probabilities for tropical cyclone (TC) development for the southwestern Indian Ocean through early March. It has been an active week for TCs around the globe, with 5 TCs that formed in 4 different basins. In the South Pacific, TC 15P formed east of the Cook Islands on February 15 and quickly dissipated. In the Australia region, TC Lincoln formed in the Gulf of Carpentaria on February 15 and moved inland quickly, bringing heavy rain to northwestern Australia. In the South Indian Ocean, on February 17 TC Djoungou formed east of Madagascar. It moved southwestward and became very strong before weakening and transitioning to an extratropical system. On February 18 TC Eleanor formed, also east of Madagascar. It is currently still active, meandering near Mauritius, and is currently forecast to eventually move towards Madagascar. For the latest information on TC Eleanor please refer to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Finally, a rare South Atlantic TC formed southeast of Rio de Janeiro on February 18. It strengthened and was named Akara on February 19, and is currently tracking south. Despite a relatively weak RMM signal among forecast models, other indicators of MJO activity suggest a stronger MJO than might otherwise be expected. Upper-level velocity potential anomaly forecasts portray a weak to moderate MJO taking shape during weeks 2-3, with increasing anomalous divergence aloft over Africa and into the Indian Ocean as the forecast period progresses. This results in a moderate probability (>40%) for TC activity in the southwestern Indian Ocean during weeks 2-3. Interestingly, Indian Ocean MJO (phases 2 and 3) events historically lead to decreased chances for TC formation near Australia and the Maritime Continent but guidance from both the GEFS and ECMWF suggest a higher chance for TC genesis during the forecast period across the northern Australian coast than might otherwise be indicated, possibly due to Rossby or Kelvin wave interference. The large-scale environment is expected to remain weakly favorable for TC development over the southeastern Indian Ocean during week-3, and 20% chances for TC genesis are issued for portions of the northern Australian coast. The precipitation outlook for weeks 2 and 3 is based on potential TC activity, the anticipated state of the MJO, and a skill-weighted consensus of GEFS, CFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions. Above-normal precipitation continues for the Equatorial Eastern Pacific for both weeks, a response to the El Nino conditions, while suppressed precipitation is favored to the north and south of the El Nino-enhanced precipitation. Continued below-normal precipitation is indicated for portions of northern South America for week-2, and above-normal temperatures are likely for eastern Brazil during both weeks. Above-normal precipitation becomes more likely over the western Indian Ocean as the next MJO cycle begins during the forecast period. During week-2, above-normal temperatures are likely for the eastern U.S., much of Brazil, portions of western Australia, and much of southern Africa, while below-normal temperatures are favored for eastern China. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Bucowx posted those videos of April 1987 Snow Storm over in the Banter thread in case noone knows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Have a feeling March 10-31 could be pretty cold. Euro Weeklies control was crazy cold this afternoon. It has been a pretty decent indicator of cold this winter. It was the first to catch the late Feb bust. It won't matter except higher elevations if it even gets cold and snows. Always the exception I suppose. A true mjo phase 1-2 models willing definitely adjust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The strat has done that with every attempted warming this winter. Sad. I have to admit @Carvers Gap I'm losing heart. Crocuses and daffodils now spring where the elk once trod. Trees are budding out on top of little Brushy mt. The MJO avoids the western hemisphere like Dale Farmer avoids Boozy Creek. I told myself after the "el nino" tongue-in-cheek comment I needed some time off until the weekend, but I can't not check on Americanwx yet. Too early. But even today's February bowling balls hate us and want us to die : I think we even have some sort of a pseudo Norlun trough over the Carolinas aimed at Damascus VA I grew up on my family’s farm just outside Damascus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: It won't matter except higher elevations if it even gets cold and snows. Always the exception I suppose. A true mjo phase 1-2 models willing definitely adjust. One thing about this forum, not every post after winter is over is about snow. For those of us having to sit through youth outdoor sporting events....that exact comment that I made -> matters. So yeah, it kind of does matter, and that is exactly why I made it. Could it snow? Sure. But anomalous cold during March and April is worth a discussion whether it snows or not. We keep this place moving year round. It isn't all about snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Speaking of snow, I do think folks above 2500’ could see some snow Sat morning, maybe even some snow showers at lower. MRX mentioned light snow for higher elevations. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 True as a profession too, lol! I thought the Plains was strange forecasting. Then I moved to the Tennessee Valley. 15 hours ago, BNAwx said: ..One thing about this hobby is just when you think you’ve got a decent understanding of how everything “should” work, Mother Nature throws you a Mariano Rivera cutter…. But yeah, the strato fake-outs surely have caused problems for numerical models this season. Probably connect very late and just ruin severe season. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Speaking of snow, I do think folks above 2500’ could see some snow Sat morning, maybe even some snow showers at lower. MRX mentioned light snow for higherhttps://x.com/markskaggs10/status/1760342557572174082?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now