February 2024 mid/ long range

[weathertree4u2]

Not really seeing anything promising in the long range - probably just my untrained eye, but what do those with more experience think Spring/Summer will hold for the area - the forum area; looks like Bastardi is predicting higher than normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. 

[Carvers Gap]

The second half of summer (or maybe all of it) and all of fall could have significantly above normal temps.  In NE TN, drought can be excessive during La Niña.  Sometimes middle and western areas will dodge that drought and get the opposite.  Hot and dry as the summer progresses and into fall.

 

As for spring, I think we see a Nino hangover with rainy and cloudy conditions for the first half of it w some sharp cold snaps - almost winter like at times.  Depending on when the atmosphere responds to the likely Niña, will depend on when it flips to the furnace - could be May or could be late June or even early July.  You will know it when u see it.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Most people I see talking about it seem to think the hurricane season this year will be bonkers. I think I saw some reports of current heat in the Atlantic = to what we normally see in July.

Supposedly high ACE seasons can correlate to better winters in the east. Raindance is already worried about + temp anomalies in the southwest. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

I'm with Carvers. Everything I see is pointing toward a hot, dry Summer. Imo, the only caveat may be if we're fortunate enough for TC activity to bring us beneficial Rains. TC development will probably begin early as Holston pointed out Factors arguing for a very active Season and the already very warm SST'S of which would favor that early start. 

   

[midwoodian]

Had a dusting of snow in Signal Mountain last night, totally unexpected.




.

[Daniel Boone]

Light patchy Dusting here as well. 

[jaxjagman]

Still believe this is a colder pattern as we get into March,2m's map is the Euro

[jaxjagman]

This is what the Euro showed 2 days ago,so it fluctuates daily,But there still should be a trough in the east into March by the looks in East Asia

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS continues to get colder.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I'm with Carvers. Everything I see is pointing toward a hot, dry Summer. Imo, the only caveat may be if we're fortunate enough for TC activity to bring us beneficial Rains. TC development will probably begin early as Holston pointed out Factors arguing for a very active Season and the already very warm SST'S of which would favor that early start. 

   

Tropical activity can definitely mute temps.  I think we might see some early tropical activity, a lulll, and then a tropical activity to end the heat during.....mid-late October.  I would guess Nov-Dec would be seasonal to BN for temps before the Jan-Feb torch next winter.  Though, I will say that if Nina is weak....it could be colder.  I am still a bit torn on next winter.  The QBO may be set to drop during later winter. 

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Tropical activity can definitely mute temps.  I think we might see some early tropical activity, a lulll, and then a tropical activity to end the heat during.....mid-late October.  I would guess Nov-Dec would be seasonal to BN for temps before the Jan-Feb torch next winter.  Though, I will say that if Nina is weak....it could be colder.  I am still a bit torn on next winter.  The QBO may be set to drop during later winter. 

Yeah, next Winter is a bit murky as like you said, if the Nina is weak it can be a whole different ballgame. 

[Matthew70]

I feel like nature is hard to predict these days.  Seems everything is reverse of what it should be.  This winter was to be a backloaded winter & instead we had 1 week in mid January.  From MJO to teleconnections we keep adding or finding something that affects the weather patterns.  I remember in the last 2 years it was supposed to be a hot dry summer when it was the opposite.  Nature sure is bipolar! Lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

I feel like nature is hard to predict these days.  Seems everything is reverse of what it should be.  This winter was to be a backloaded winter & instead we had 1 week in mid January.  From MJO to teleconnections we keep adding or finding something that affects the weather patterns.  I remember in the last 2 years it was supposed to be a hot dry summer when it was the opposite.  Nature sure is bipolar! Lol. 

7-10 days of winter is actually very normal for this area (not higher elevations).  The record snow in Knoxville this year and record number of snow (4"+) w/ snow on the ground is telling.  As for backloaded, it was close.  If the storm had arrive about a week later, that would have been backloaded.  Technically, it hit right in the middle of met winter.  The main part of winter came during mid-January which is prime climatology.  Many places at lower elevations are at or above snow norms.  When we get a really severe cold outbreak like that, winter will often end - even if December.  That has happened more times than I can count.  The only surprise to me this winter was the anomalous slp in the GOA which brought the monster chinook to Canada during December.  That probably delayed the cold about 1-2 weeks after Christmas.  February has been warm, but the Nino really has collapsed, or is collapsing.  Plus, we could still see more snow.  We have about 4 more weeks where it can snow in the valleys(increasingly problematic w/ each passing week).  I don't really see anything on the horizon right now, but there are some decent windows.

As for predictability....it is always tough, but lean on ENSO and you will often be right.  I learned that from our mets here..  I managed to get 3/3 for DJF temps last winter.  This winter I have 2 out of 3 for DJM - Feb will obviously bust.  That is far above what I am normally capable of in terms of temps.  Normally, I am much, much worse than that.  It really is a crapshoot.  I share that to say that predictability has been not bad.  Next winter is an entirely different animal in terms of predictability - going to see some seasonal busts next winter IMHO.  One other surprise is that the mountains/foothills didn't get more snow, but....that may also get rectified at least for the mountains.  There were some BIG late season snows in the mountains during the 90s.

One thing to note, there were some El Nino winter analogs which were not good.  Some were really good.  This winter was kind of a mix of the two.  So, really having a historic snowstorm for many areas equates to a good winter for me.   I do think next winter will see continued bouts of severe cold, especially middle and west.  The fact middle and west scored during a Nino is a HUGE bonus.  

[Carvers Gap]

And one last note, the TN Valley has always been home to extreme weather, especially flooding and drought.  TVA has steadied that quite a bit, but it was rough prior to TVA.  There have generally been wild swings in TN for at least the last 150 years.   Our latitude is almost always problematic.  We live in the subtropics and that is always important to remember.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, next Winter is a bit murky as like you said, if the Nina is weak it can be a whole different ballgame. 

If the qbo is positive and higher sunspots, that can allow it to be colder, especially in niñas. If the niña is central based next winter, probably another warm winter. If it's east based, probably a version of 21-22 winter. All speculation at this point. We were very lucky to see January cold. 

[Itryatgolf70]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

7-10 days of winter is actually very normal for this area (not higher elevations).  The record snow in Knoxville this year and record number of snow (4"+) w/ snow on the ground is telling.  As for backloaded, it was close.  If the storm had arrive about a week later, that would have been backloaded.  Technically, it hit right in the middle of met winter.  The main part of winter came during mid-January which is prime climatology.  Many places at lower elevations are at or above snow norms.  When we get a really severe cold outbreak like that, winter will often end - even if December.  That has happened more times than I can count.  The only surprise to me this winter was the anomalous slp in the GOA which brought the monster chinook to Canada during December.  That probably delayed the cold about 1-2 weeks after Christmas.  February has been warm, but the Nino really has collapsed, or is collapsing.  Plus, we could still see more snow.  We have about 4 more weeks where it can snow in the valleys(increasingly problematic w/ each passing week).  I don't really see anything on the horizon right now, but there are some decent windows.

As for predictability....it is always tough, but lean on ENSO and you will often be right.  I learned that from our mets here..  I managed to get 3/3 for DJF temps last winter.  This winter I have 2 out of 3 for DJM - Feb will obviously bust.  That is far above what I am normally capable of in terms of temps.  Normally, I am much, much worse than that.  It really is a crapshoot.  I share that to say that predictability has been not bad.  Next winter is an entirely different animal in terms of predictability - going to see some seasonal busts next winter IMHO.  One other surprise is that the mountains/foothills didn't get more snow, but....that may also get rectified at least for the mountains.  There were some BIG late season snows in the mountains during the 90s.

One thing to note, there were some El Nino winter analogs which were not good.  Some were really good.  This winter was kind of a mix of the two.  So, really having a historic snowstorm for many areas equates to a good winter for me.   I do think next winter will see continued bouts of severe cold, especially middle and west.  The fact middle and west scored during a Nino is a HUGE bonus.  

I'm still somewhat intrigued in how the SSW plays out to see if we have one last big cold blast here. Not your typical niño this winter like many have alluded to

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, next Winter is a bit murky as like you said, if the Nina is weak it can be a whole different ballgame. 

January cold this winter (second half) was very predictable and fit seasonal norms to a T.  Next winter, there is a A LOT going on.  The strength of the Nina is going to be key.  If it is moderate to strong...no dice for eastern areas.  Some of our best winters are weak La Nina winters w/ a falling QBO.  The QBO should at least be descending by next winter even if positive.  The toughest thing about Nina winters is trying to sync cold w/ a weaker STJ.  But who knows, sometimes winters can buck climatology.  I think next winter has far more uncertainty.  We are definitely in a base Nina state right now.  I do expect the continent to be quite cold which means it will likely get very cold in eastern NA at some point.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Itryatgolf70 said:

I'm still somewhat intrigued in how the SSW plays out to see if we have one last big cold blast here. Not your typical niño this winter like many have alluded to

I think that has merit.  My guess would be western North America and then maybe it slides eastward.  There are still some big cold fronts showing up on the GFS.  Usually when winter is over, you don't see those cold fronts on LR modeling.  OTH, it may just be cold and rainy.  The Euro weeklies have hinted at a second-week cold shot.  There is definitely some warm weather in between those cold shots though.

[Carvers Gap]

If forced to make an early call for next winter, I would go:

Sept/Oct: Very hot and dry...w/ a flip to cold in either late Oct or early Nov

Nov/Dec:  Cold w/ chances for multiple winter storms

Jan:  Flip to warm...better chances further west in the forum one goes.

Feb:  Warm

January is what I can't wrap my head around yet.  It could be very cold and linger into early Feb.  Some weak Nina analogs do that.  At this point, I don't think we are fighting the QBO, but we will see (not a certainty yet).  Or it could flip warm and never look back.  We need to really be able to see the duration of this Nina.  If we start moderate and move back to weak as the winer progresses, that is going to make this really, really complex.  A weak ENSO state is almost always to our advantage.  We might not have those answers until early summer at the earliest.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Got an NAO that looks like the strat one from 2018 at the end of the 6z GFS. 

I guess we'll see if it can hold. 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Got an NAO that looks like the strat one from 2018 at the end of the 6z GFS. 

I guess we'll see if it can hold. 

This was yesterday

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This was yesterday

El Nino 

[jaxjagman]

About to move to severe with Jeff...not sure how much is left in this winter

[*Flash*]

22 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think that has merit.  My guess would be western North America and then maybe it slides eastward.  There are still some big cold fronts showing up on the GFS.  Usually when winter is over, you don't see those cold fronts on LR modeling.  OTH, it may just be cold and rainy.  The Euro weeklies have hinted at a second-week cold shot.  There is definitely some warm weather in between those cold shots though.

I concur with both you guys. I tend to think if a cold shot verifies, it will be too late for the valleys. Kinda in that awkward in-between phase where severe talk makes more sense for the majority but winter is still on the board for elevations partially immune to climo. While it would be great to have one more system to track, I agree with you Carver and others who have hinted at this winter clinching a passing grade depending on here you live. Had anyone told me on 12/1/23 my backyard would see 9" of snow for the winter (above average by 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 standards), I would have taken that and run. Quantity-wise, I prefer winters that produce a trackable winter storm per month on average, granted beggars can't be choosers. Sure seems to me that March is trending more towards lion than lamb. As long as the pattern doesn't become too dry and benign, I'll take it. 

[Daniel Boone]

  In regards to this area; while January turned out good overall, December and February have not. The Winter was much better than last for obvious reasons. However, looking back at past long term(30 Years) Averages, if we receive no more measurable snow the winter will be another well below Average Winter in the Snowfall Dept.. The Average for the 1950-1980 era for my location was 2 feet( If measurements were taken as are nowadays, would be even more). The next 30 was 20. Now, 18". 

  As of now my Total is 11.2". It'll take 7 " to hit Today's Normal. They used to change the "Normals" every 30 Years. Now, every Year basically. This actually masks the scope of how things have changed over the Year's for many as they don't either remember or look back at past Climate Data. 

  Some Data is now missing of which used to be there. That begs the question where it got to and even why. Alot of Data that is still there is flawed or have missing data within the Set's.

  I am a retired Antique now, but, have alot of memory and experience under my belt having lived through these Climate Periods. I had my own Records for many Year's, hard copy and then Computer in these latter Year's. Unfortunately some were destroyed in a moving process and some a PC crash. I am thankful my Memory still serves me well. 

  I don't intend on being a Debbie downer or refuting anyone else's thought's/ feeling's irt this Winter but simply presenting facts mainly pertaining to my Area. The Reason Snowfall Averages have steadily declined is debatable. Some say solely AGW. Other's cyclical. I lean mainly SST location Anomalies. Sure, there has been a Global increase in Temps in our Lifetime but, not nearly to the degree some think or are saying. 

   Anyway, would like other's opinions/ thoughts. John, you have some data from your Local that goes a good ways back. Chime in.

[jaxjagman]

On 2/16/2024 at 10:55 AM, nrgjeff said:

Looks to me like the Strato warmings cannot connect with the Troposphere. Modelling for late February was a total bust. 
There is some hope in early March, but that gets toward mid March. No true connection with Canadian air either. We would have to hope for a bowling ball. They can and do happen that late. 
If this does not work I'm ready for severe early and often. 

Actually matches up pretty decently with what the EPS is showing which would be into the 2nd week of March,least it does today

[*Flash*]

Season snowfall to date. I imagine our part of the world won't see much adjustment on the 2023-24 seasonal snowfall maps. Easily could have been worse when you consider locations to our immediate northwest and, of course, the southern mid-Atlantic down through the Carolinas. The blues in Minnesota are also telling. 

[Carvers Gap]

I suspect we have at least one more storm thread, maybe two.  I could be wrong, but let's see.  I don't think we are out of the woods until the first week of April is over.  Plenty of warm embedded, but very strong cold shots are also prevalent.  Wavelengths are shortening, and bowling balls are showing up.  The 12z Euro control shows the potential w/ two separate winter storms during March.  The SSW is going to have to be reckoned with.  Late March is nasty on LR ext modeling.  It easily could be a mirage, but oof...

 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I suspect we have at least one more storm thread, maybe two.  I could be wrong, but let's see.  I don't think we are out of the woods until the first week of April is over.  Plenty of warm embedded, but very strong cold shots are also prevalent.  Wavelengths are shortening, and bowling balls are showing up.  The 12z Euro control shows the potential w/ two separate winter storms during March.  The SSW is going to have to be reckoned with.  Late March is nasty on LR ext modeling.  It easily could be a mirage, but oof...

 

 

If it's that late, other than higher elevations, it won't matter for most of us. I've been saying it probably will get cold again in March. Most are ready for spring now at this point

[Carvers Gap]

This is one which actually rivals 93' but gets a little less press.  This was my spring break in HS.  We couldn't leave the house for the entire break - snowed in.   Folks raised in E TN, E KY, and SW VA know to keep looking back over one shoulder.  Now, I am in not forecasting this, but LR ext modeling is showing cold worthy of this type of storm.  It can and does snow at lower elevations in many areas during March and sometimes April, though this is an extreme example.

This is a great article about the storm.....It includes synoptical set-ups and photos.  

https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm