Matthew70 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We have had some good thunder the last two days here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We have had some good thunder the last two days here.Above all we had to have this rain. I was getting worried . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Thunder in the mountains! FTW ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The SSW event is underway now. Be interesting to see if we get cold here by beginning of March. I'm surprised the models are warm in the extended, especially the ensembles. Unless mjo is going into warm phases again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 18z GFS looks actually colder than 12z. It looks like winter. I feel like I have lived this sequence once already this winter? There is also another potential winter system around the 23rd..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So, the GFS has a pretty major cold outbreak around the 23-27th or so. It actually looks great right before this, but this is a big time look. NAO, PNA/EPO, undercutting of the western ridge, PV trapped under the couplet highs which are almost hooked over the top, low in the Aleutians. That is a cold, stormy signal. Remember how we have noted that modeling has a really hard time modeling the NAO, but when it gets it.....you see this. I don't know if this is a trend. For now, it is a two-run trend(12z and 18). It could end up flipping right back. But...the operational GFS is pretty renowned for catching trends early. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Almost every system on the GFS has some frozen precip over portions of the forum area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Modeling is also picking up on 1-2 pretty severe cold shots in March. Let's see where this goes tomorrow. For now, we have winter wx advisories posted. If we end up getting snow, someone needs to open up a thread for the winter wx advisory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: So, the GFS has a pretty major cold outbreak around the 23-27th or so. It actually looks great right before this, but this is a big time look. NAO, PNA/EPO, undercutting of the western ridge, PV trapped under the couplet highs which are almost hooked over the top, low in the Aleutians. That is a cold, stormy signal. Remember how we have noted that modeling has a really hard time modeling the NAO, but when it gets it.....you see this. I don't know if this is a trend. For now, it is a two-run trend(12z and 18). It could end up flipping right back. But...the operational GFS is pretty renowned for catching trends early. This look makes sense if we get a SSW and get things lined up! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: This look makes sense if we get a SSW and get things lined up! And this current SSW should show up around early March. We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now, but maybe went to Asia. It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event. Tough to know. I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though. Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And this current SSW should show up around early March. We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now, but maybe went to Asia. It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event. Tough to know. I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though. Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show. Yeah, the MJO is the problem; where it's going to be. Other than that I'd be pretty gung ho. If the MJO is low amp during warm phases we should still be alright if that Blocking and EPO Ridge sets up imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Reports of huge flakes trickling in a county or two to my west here in Jackson 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Weeklies have gone mild in 3 and 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 24 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Weeklies have gone mild in 3 and 4. Maybe that's a good sign for cold weather here lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Maybe that's a good sign for cold weather here lol Yeah, especially the way they've performed this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Pouring snow in White Bluff. Silver dollar sized flakes. About a half inch on the ground in only 15 minutes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Pouring snow in White Bluff. Silver dollar sized flakes. About a half inch on the ground in only 15 minutes. What’s your current temp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, BNAwx said: What’s your current temp? 36. I don't imagine this will last long but we've secured a decent coating under some pretty strong returns. This is the wettest, slushiest snow I can remember. Instantly melts on exposed skin and funnels down fast. If you ever wanted to take a shower in snow, this is your best bet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 What's interesting is when it snowed, it quickly changed to rain, despite it getting colder here. Very interesting. Bamwx posted an image showing northern plains already 23 degrees above average and we are 10 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Still snowing. Almost to an inch now. Super low ratios. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just switched over in Hermitage. Looks like some pretty hefty returns moving in from the northwest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @Daniel Boone The ensemble looks to me like week 3 is warm. Week 4 is quite cold(maybe colder). Honestly, week 3 for middle and E TN look pretty similar. The Plains during week 3 are warm...just a quick glance on my part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The Euro control weeklies lower the boom for the first week of March - SSW special right there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Somebody is gonna have to post some snow photos so those of us getting the liquid variety can live vicariously. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Still snowing. Almost to an inch now. Super low ratios. those are some huge flakes..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 should pick up soon,almost 40 dbz on the radar to just our NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: FTW ! It rarely fails us....thunder in the mountains. Just a wild rule that is probably more accurate than most weather models. Congratulations to everyone seeing snow. Pics or it didn't happen! LOL. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: those are some huge flakes..lol Not too shabby for a sneak-up event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro control weeklies lower the boom for the first week of March - SSW special right there. Yeah, honestly think models are having a very hard time deciphering all the variables. SSW affects will most definitely alter the extended one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 THUNDERSNOW !!My first time ever 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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