Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: thats crazy,even the GFS now,this was suppose to be into the OV Yeah, it snuck-up on me for sure. I was just looking at the GFS trends, and it has moved SE for several runs. When I say "on time," the 14th was the original pattern change date. Crazy that west TN(maybe portions of middle) might be backing into a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, it snuck-up on me for sure. I was just looking at the GFS trends, and it has moved SE for several runs. When I say "on time," the 14th was the original pattern change date. Crazy that west TN(maybe portion of middle) might be backing into a storm. Its insane Carver if this were to happen..lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Its insane Carver if this were to happen..lol I know, right. The SE trend has been real all winter, but I hadn't even bothered to check the near term. Looks like it is rates driven w/ some marginal cold to work with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 HRRR has me jonesin’. If it’s right, let’s freakin’ go! Like Jax, thought this was an OV special riding into church this morning. 925’s have me nervous but 850’s should do the trick. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We just need the Pacific not to have massive jet extensions....that has been a problem for several winters. I have my theories on why this is occurring(one of you knows my thoughts), but I do wonder. Your theories are usually at least in the ballpark . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 No worries [mention=3027]jaxjagman[/mention] or [mention=13698]Daniel Boone[/mention] I was trying to ride a line between serious and funny. I thought it was hilarious. (Was actually waiting on a political joke to follow ). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0z HRRR says, 'Congrats, Bowling Green. You will double your January 2024 snow total.' Smh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Middle TN just got NAM'd. The crazy trends continue. Gotta think there will be some northerly corrections and amounts potentially lower due to wet ratios. Timing will be key should this system speed up. Right now, it sure looks like this will be a nocturnal event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Can we continue to get that SE trend ftw ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 ARW is in as well. Crazy stuff. I have my doubts that feedback is going on....but big totals like that are not unusual for a Feb snowstorm. Models often underestimate QPF. Wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z Euro tried to get interesting as well for the Plateau. Holston went out and found a snowstorm to track. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This is what KY said this afternoon .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 345 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 Monday Night through Wednesday Night... The forecast for Monday night is quite complex and contains a substantial amount of uncertainty. An area of surface low pressure is forecast to move east-northeast across northern TN and into southeast KY and into West Virgina during evening and into the overnight hours. On the north side of this low pressure system, widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to be moving across Kentucky and portions of southern Indiana. As the low slides into southeast KY, colder air will quickly wrap into the backside of the system resulting in the rain quickly changing over to wet snow. Much of the current guidance shows a heavy band of wet snow transversing the region Monday evening within a strongly forced deformation band. Earlier runs from the overnight period suggested that this heavier band would transverse southern IL/IN/OH. However, there has been a notable southward trend in this band in the morning and afternoon guidance. As of this writing, the highest threat of accumulating snows continues to be over portions of southern Indiana and the northern half of Kentucky. Initially, surface and ground temperatures are expected to be well above freezing early Monday evening. However, as the transition to snow happens (which may be quite fast), the rate of snowfall will likely overwhelm the warm ground/surface temperatures. Still, we`ll loose some of the early accumulation due to the warm ground and above freezing surface temps, but air temps are likely to fall pretty quickly as we transition over to snow. The snow is likely to be the heaviest from late Monday evening into the early hours of Tuesday morning. Given the amount of forcing and lift across the region Monday evening, the snow could come down quite impressively in some spots given the convective signals that we`re seeing in the high resolution models. It is possible that intense snow may fall in areas where rates could reach 1-2"/hr perhaps higher in isolated spots. Given the uncertainty in the overall setup, the marginal temperatures, and continued shifting of model guidance, messaging this system remains a bit problematic. Uncertainty in snowfall amounts and location remains too high to delineate any one area for a Winter Storm Watch. To alert the public of the adverse weather that is expected to impact the region, surrounding WFO`s collaborated and decided to go with a higher impact Winter Weather Advisory with this forecast issuance to get the word out. Snowfall amounts of 1-3 inches with localized amounts up to 4 inches are likely within the advisory area. Depending on forecast trends, this advisory will likely undergo further refinement over the next 24 hours. If confidence increases on where higher snows may end up falling, an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the area may be required in subsequent forecasts. Persons in southern Indiana and central Kentucky should continue to closely monitor forecasts tonight and on Monday and be prepared for hazardous road conditions Monday evening and Tuesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Choose your own adventure book on CPC MJO plots this morning. The GEFS now takes a full rotation through the cold phases. The Euro does not. I like the 6z GEFS....it has a cold front on the 14th, 17th, and 25th. They don't have a lot of staying power, but that fits the wild MJO look. That MJO look should support a very transient pattern. I would lean base warm, simply because the warm days will likely be warmer against the norms than the cold days. As noted earlier, to score at this point we are looking for a well placed storm which would be timed to hit one of those cold shots. It would not surprise me to see snow showers next weekend. The storm for the 17-18th is not there. I am 50/50 on whether it returns. It is kind of in that window where storms are often lost. As for the 14th system, American modeling still has a pretty good thump for west TN as well portions of middle. The 3k NAM and 12k NAM both have rates driven snow which is crazy hard to predict. It would not surprise me to see some decent lollipops along the TN/KY border (middle and west). if American modeling is correct. As the 12z rolls in there are some pretty big differences between the 3k and 12k NAM. I am guessing modeling is struggling w/ rates driven stuff. It looks like the NAM favors a changeover in middle(and that is also nighttime which makes sense). The 12z changes over earlier in west TN. Whoever gets this system at night has the advantage. The Plateau may score some accumulation if the 3k is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Oddly, the 14th has been the day that we have looked at for a pattern change. To be clear, I don't think the new pattern is going to be all that great for snowfall in the valleys, but this would be a decent score for LR ext modeling. Of note, snowfall in forecasting is incredibly difficult to predict at range. Even when I do my "just for fun" seasonal modeling, I make a guess at snowfall...but it is like throwing darts while blindfolded. So beware, it can snow during a warm pattern. Here are the 12z outputs from meso scale modeling for the upcoming 14ths system. Nighttime is best option. I would not be surprised to see some folks in the forum area score if they catch this at night. This is probably a tougher sell for E TN unless you live near a break in the Plateau where moisture can slip through. Middle and west TN folks have a potentially minor or lollipop event to track. The ARW is not out yet, and it was bullish at 0z. I will add it here once it is completed. That map Tellico had this winter was really good about "flyways" for moisture entering the eastern valley. I was reading about a similar set-up around the Grand Tetons. I have always wondered why Jackson, WY, got so much less than Moran and Alpine. Those last two areas live near breaks in that mountain range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I know Cosgrove has mentioned that analogs point towards a warm spring w/ El Nino collapsing. This is also the time of year (shoulder season) where LR modeling will sometimes struggle mightily. All of that said, spring is not looking warm on LR ext or seasonal modeling. However, summer is looking very warm - meaning above normal. Given the performance of recent LR modeling and analog packages, I would say pretty everything is on the table for spring. I do think mid-late summer and most of fall will be hot/dry, maybe brutally hot if Nina kicks in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Holston……sorry for delayed reply, but the metal snowman has been put up for the season. Major renovations started on the house last week, so we packed up and moved into an AirBNB for two months. Wife didn’t want it getting damaged. I told her that it was required to stay up until mid-March (per forum request)……..but I got “that look” and an eye roll!! Such blasphemy from that woman!!!! . 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 ...and we are now left to fight inevitable spring with only the power of the one tone, wooly worm. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 46 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: ...and we are now left to fight inevitable spring with only the power of the one tone, wooly worm. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Saw that one back on August 20th, a full month before the black one reared its head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 One thing which keeps my attention(rightly or wrongly), the warm-up from Jan 21 to now was originally forecast to be just a 3-4 day warm-up. It missed the MJO rotation into the warm phases, and the supposed hiccup of a warm spell lasted for weeks. There is part of me that wonders if that is happening right now, except the cold pattern continues longer than forecast. Modeling has been guilty all season of perpetuating a pattern and missing the turn. Now, I think there is good evidence that the warm MJO wins, but I don't think it is a slam dunk. MjO plots this morning tended to go COD in the colder phases, and that is something to watch in terms of trends. Now, I think warm-ups are inevitable...spring is going to fight this. But when I look at the 12z CMC driving single digits and low teens into the region, I do wonder if modeling is under estimating the embedded cold shots..... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 When the Canadian starts to produce real feel temps like this, it is probably at least worth passing attention. There is probably some bias in play here, but the Canadian can sometimes spot colder air masses before the GFS. If this is legit, it could snow deep into South Carolina and even the Panhandle. I don't think it does, but this solution would allow for it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Winter. Weather. Advisories. Middle TN. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Winter. Weather. Advisories. Middle TN. I think it is amazing how this one seemingly came out of no where in just the last 36 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The cold front is right on time. What is crazy is that this was a cold/snow time frame for weeks, and frozen precip was lost about ten days ago(roughly IDK). Now, it is back. Feb 13-14 has been the pattern switch for a while. Hopefully, some folks will get a quick thump. The 12z GFS on cue has now three fairly strong cold fronts throughout its run. It is anything but wall-to-wall warm. I'll have to look but 10+ days of that might be BN. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 12z Euro drops some more snow with a front on Feb 17. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z Euro drops some more snow with a front on Feb 17. I’m getting interested in the 17th. I believe at one time the mods were showing a Miller A or some feature that enhanced on the lee side(I didn’t pay much attention to it). Mods have brought the temps down about 10 degrees since yesterday. I’m hoping in the next couple of days mods pick up on a wave or something anafrontal. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This guy has been hanging around my house the past few days. Maybe he's telling us winter isn't quite through yet. 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This guy has been hanging around my house the past few days. Maybe he's telling us winter isn't quite through yet. He’s got that look in his eye. Hopefully it’s not flowers blooming. . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We got a wooly worm substitute and an elk substitute(very cool BTW). We have winter wx advisories up for norther middle and west TN , and are tracking a slider on the 17th on the Euro. And the GFS is cold.... Honestly, this is what the Weeklies were advertising for weeks before losing them. This is probably a "light" version, but interesting to see it work out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Winter. Weather. Advisories. Middle TN. Thunder in the mountains! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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