Silas Lang Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z GFS at hour 190ish looks beautiful. I’ll take that look even if it ends suppressed later in this run. Huge improvement. Not a hit, but I would take it this far out anyway. Way better than the cold rain look we had been seeing. The ingredients are at least there on the 12z run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 12z EPS has a monster NAO which suppresses the storm track after Feb 24th. At minimum, the mountains should get hammered. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Seemingly the Euro and CFS are close to being on the same page right now .CFS has been showing the velocity getting back into the IO and even Maritime into March,it just recently back down and now as we head towards the end of the first week of March its now into Africa just getting into the Western IO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, Silas Lang said: Huge improvement. Not a hit, but I would take it this far out anyway. Way better than the cold rain look we had been seeing. The ingredients are at least there on the 12z run. Annnddd the 18z looking totally different. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Annnddd the 18z looking totally different. lol And that is a surprise? OMG 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 39 minutes ago, weathertree4u2 said: And that is a surprise? OMG Not really. Just an observation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The Indo-Pacific is a mess. Convection that has come east from the Dateline is old news. Thunderstorms percolating over the Maritime Subcontinent (Indonesia / Malaysia) are a warm signal (current pattern) that was supposed to move east into colder phases again. Ope! Got new convection blowing up in the Indian Ocean. As it marches east it gets into the warm signal Maritime Subcontinent again. MJO models are not as messy as the reality I see on satellite. I suspect weather models will continue to struggle for North America. At least the southern storm track looks active. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Not really. Just an observation. Think he’s being facetious . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 18 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: The Indo-Pacific is a mess. Convection that has come east from the Dateline is old news. Thunderstorms percolating over the Maritime Subcontinent (Indonesia / Malaysia) are a warm signal (current pattern) that was supposed to move east into colder phases again. Ope! Got new convection blowing up in the Indian Ocean. As it marches east it gets into the warm signal Maritime Subcontinent again. MJO models are not as messy as the reality I see on satellite. I suspect weather models will continue to struggle for North America. At least the southern storm track looks active. Hello Nrgjeff. Any chance it fires up in the phase 1 and circles through IO and then the warm phases? That would be colder for a while lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 seriously though: 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Look at this beautiful microwave precipitable water imagery: Double tap action engage! Eastern and Central Pac precip train! The Pacific is lining em up 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: seriously though: I’m still skeptical. It was supposed to rain all day yesterday and all night last night. So far just a trace here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 I think it just depends on where you are. I could def. see SE TN dodging the higher totals. You get moreSE ridge and I get the firehose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Too warm on that run, but that is a FORMIDABLE solution on the 12z GFS around Feb 18th. That is likely a blizzard for portions of New England and inland mid-Atlantic. SLP rapidly deepens. If we can get that cold front to speed up, that is a big storm..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 That is the type of storm which can change up the entire NA wx pattern if it deepens an eastern trough. It has been there for several days, but that is a pretty big run for the NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 At this point, to be clear, the phase occurs too far to the East...but that is an impressive look. Sometimes, things have to be admired even if they don't affect us on a certain run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwoodian Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Reading between the lines on recent posts…fair to say it’s 50/50 we get another cold shot or prolonged cold snap in the Tennessee Valley?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 25 minutes ago, midwoodian said: Reading between the lines on recent posts…fair to say it’s 50/50 we get another cold shot or prolonged cold snap in the Tennessee Valley? . If we lose the EPO and it flips +, I say it’s under 50/50 though it depends on where you live. Not sure if winter can return if the MJO and EPO aren’t in our corner. We’re asking a whole lot from the Atlantic side at that point. ssstwitter.com_1707587255443.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I do like we have rain to help going into spring. I am not complaining about the temps either. Mid 50s to 60 is perfect soccer weather to sit & watch my daughter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: I do like we have rain to help going into spring. I am not complaining about the temps either. Mid 50s to 60 is perfect soccer weather to sit & watch my daughter. I was thinking the same thing, Matthew. The consolation prize to #wintercancel (being facetious there), is the split flow pattern helping keep us wet. When the year started, I recall some having concerns we wouldn’t bust the drought heading into spring. I look forward to the next Drought Monitor on Thursday to see how far we’ve come in recent weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Euro is at least looking like it wants to drop a hunk of frigid air south after about 190 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 Looks like it also snows/ wintery mixes in CAD regions of NC for something like 36+ hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 With the exception of something unexpected(LR modeling missing a cold front or a bowling ball perfectly placed), I believe winter at lower elevations is probably over after the Feb 18 system(unless CPC MJO plots are erroneously skipping cold phases which they certainly could be in error doing). Now, anything can happen during March. But as for temps, I think winter is done after say the 25th...and honestly it was over when the cold left during mid-late January. February should finish with much AN temps and rain. We are going to need every drop of this come next fall as I suspect drought takes hold late next summer along w/ temps that should be in the furnace through early October. Enjoy the cool temps and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks like it also snows/ wintery mixes in CAD regions of NC for something like 36+ hours That solution certainly makes more sense than a rainer on the 12z GFS. The western NC mountains should get popped w/ that set-up. E TN remains a dark horse with that set-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 At this point, I am still not totally sure modeling is sensing the -NAO. The LR right now has me super skittish. That is a common error, so I feel there is still a chance that modeling could turn colder if it can fight the Pacific. So, I do hold out a little hope that could happen. Also, if that storm deepens around the 18th...we could also see the NA pattern shift the cold eastward. I should note that I don't think the Pacific is going to be much help during coming winters due to the IO/MJO set-up. I think we are going to have to rely on Atlantic blocking which is what did the trick during mid-January. As soon as the NAO left, the cold pattern broke down within hours. Is the SSW at fault? We have seen that occur before, and our pattern went into the crapper within a few runs of it showing up......Asia looks cold as it should. Asia is the primary spot SSW cold goes(then western NA, and then eastern NA last as priorities). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, midwoodian said: Reading between the lines on recent posts…fair to say it’s 50/50 we get another cold shot or prolonged cold snap in the Tennessee Valley? . Between Feb 15-20th, yes...almost a certainty. As to whether it is prolonged? I think that is reaching the "highly unlikely" range of options. I tend to think of prolonged being 7-14 days. I don't see that at the moment, but you never know. Nothing is a certainty in the weather, except what is occurring right now. I would say 70/30 that we don't see a prolonged cold snap, but we could see mini-cold snaps. Looks like a pretty typical spring pattern setting up for March with swings to warm and cold. But again, modeling is all over the place right now....the mid-January cold shot was not seen until about 5-7 days out. It is looking likely that the LR predictions to a return to cold are likely going to bust pretty badly....but not for certain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I should note that I don't think the Pacific is going to be much help during coming winters due to the IO/MJO set-up. I think we've been fighting that since I've been typing on this site, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think we've been fighting that since I've been typing on this site, lol. Truth. We just need the Pac to be neutral as I think we are in a -NAO cycle. LOTS of discussion as to why the water is so warm east of Australia. That has caused absolute chaos this winter in regards to the SOI and MJO. I can't find a great explanation for it, but that area has a lot to say about our weather. What we need is a true weak la Nina or a true weak el Nino. Those weaker phases work...moderate, strong, or nada don't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 But I will say, extreme cold IMBY is often followed by winter breaking quickly for spring. 84-85 did that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 And ha, ha...right on schedule the 12z Euro brings in a massive cold front around the 20th. Not a "stop the presses" look, but a "similar to early January look." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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