Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Overnight ensemble runs are cold for the aforementioned timeframe. The GFS (pasts two runs) is picking up on a stormy time frame around the 20th. As many of noted, the best winter storms are often picked out at range. It could go poof, but worth watching. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Here was the SOI back into Dec before our cold shot and the SOI today,who know if it turns out as before,surely shouldnt be as cold if it does turn cold 5 Feb 2024 1007.06 1009.90 -36.41 -0.02 -3.85 4 Feb 2024 1008.30 1009.40 -28.05 0.94 -3.66 3 Feb 2024 1007.67 1007.55 -22.19 1.65 -3.51 2 Feb 2024 1006.85 1008.15 -29.01 2.20 -3.36 1 Feb 2024 1007.27 1008.65 -29.40 3.19 -3.02 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 12z suite has a great boundary setting up after the 15th. The CMC looks the best, but the GFS isn't terrible either. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 12z GEPS (ensemble) is showing multiple days with highs near or just below freezing....Those are probably a bit too cold, but that just shows the potential for where this pattern could go. So far, still on schedule for cold arriving on Feb13-14th depending on where you live in the forum. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 From the Mammoth area. At some point when I see atmospheric river forecast well in advance, gonna have to rent a chalet up there and make the trip. They got 3+ feet yesterday, not sure how much more last night. I was watching a youtube video filmed yesterday at just over 9000 feet and the guy said it was snowing 4 inches per hour. 339 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 5000 feet. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 feet. Additional snow accumulations as high as 7 feet are possible at elevations above 8,000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The Sierra Nevada above 5000 feet. * WHEN...Valid through 4 AM PST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 22 minutes ago, John1122 said: From the Mammoth area. At some point when I see atmospheric river forecast well in advance, gonna have to rent a chalet up there and make the trip. They got 3+ feet yesterday, not sure how much more last night. Great, now you've added yet another thing to my "one day when I'm retired" day dream bucket list. I've already got trips in there for the Keweenaw Peninsula and the Tug Hill Plateau. I'm going to have to keep working longer to afford all these trips. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Overnight ensemble runs are cold for the aforementioned timeframe. The GFS (pasts two runs) is picking up on a stormy time frame around the 20th. As many of noted, the best winter storms are often picked out at range. It could go poof, but worth watching.Weather Channel app is picking up on something in that time frame for our area with snow, rain, and freezing rain around the 19th. Posted earlier but had a typo fat fingering the date. Hopefully, the southern valley near Georgia border can actually get some white on the ground. Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 hours ago, John1122 said: From the Mammoth area. At some point when I see atmospheric river forecast well in advance, gonna have to rent a chalet up there and make the trip. They got 3+ feet yesterday, not sure how much more last night. I was watching a youtube video filmed yesterday at just over 9000 feet and the guy said it was snowing 4 inches per hour. 339 AM PST Mon Feb 5 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected above 5000 feet. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 feet. Additional snow accumulations as high as 7 feet are possible at elevations above 8,000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The Sierra Nevada above 5000 feet. * WHEN...Valid through 4 AM PST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. Just come up to Buffalo for a lake effect storm. Shorter drive and you dont have to chase in the rural areas/mountains. You can stay in a big town. We just got this a few weeks ago. Last winter we had 2 storms bigger and worse than this one. The one in January we recorded snowfall rates of over 5" per hour. Its all on my YouTube channel in my signature if you want to check it out. In the last 13 months I had a 80" storm in 3 days, a 53" storm with 70 MPH winds, and a 76" storm over 5 days. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just come up to Buffalo for a lake effect storm. Shorter drive and you dont have to chase in the rural areas/mountains. You can stay in a big town. We just got this a few weeks ago. Last winter we had 2 storms bigger and worse than this one. The one in January we recorded snowfall rates of over 5" per hour. Its all on my YouTube channel in my signature if you want to check it out. In the last 13 months I had a 80" storm in 3 days, a 53" storm with 70 MPH winds, and a 76" storm over 5 days. That is awesome! I have always wanted to see lake effect snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just come up to Buffalo for a lake effect storm. Shorter drive and you dont have to chase in the rural areas/mountains. You can stay in a big town. We just got this a few weeks ago. Last winter we had 2 storms bigger and worse than this one. The one in January we recorded snowfall rates of over 5" per hour. Its all on my YouTube channel in my signature if you want to check it out. In the last 13 months I had a 80" storm in 3 days, a 53" storm with 70 MPH winds, and a 76" storm over 5 days. I've been fortunate enough to be in heavy lake effect before but not like that. How widespread is it there? I've always heard a 10 mile wide path may get 3 or 4 feet but outside that it might just be a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've been fortunate enough to be in heavy lake effect before but not like that. How widespread is it there? I've always heard a 10 mile wide path may get 3 or 4 feet but outside that it might just be a few inches. The 2 from last year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2022-2023&event=A 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is awesome! I have always wanted to see lake effect snow. It’s insane I’ve seen 8” per hour snowfall rates here. Early season events are very sloppy too, not fluff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've been fortunate enough to be in heavy lake effect before but not like that. How widespread is it there? I've always heard a 10 mile wide path may get 3 or 4 feet but outside that it might just be a few inches. It’s like any event though. You need to be above 7-8k feet to get the goods out west. The 5-6’ stuff is only across the very highest elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It’s like any event though. You need to be above 7-8k feet to get the goods out west. The 5-6’ stuff is only across the very highest elevations. That's why if I went west I'd to to Mammoth. The town is at 8,000 feet with tons of housing at 9-10k around the resort. They seem extremely efficient at clearing roads too. The fellow who does one of the channels I watch lives at about 9100 in what looks basically like a subdivision. Last year snow depth was over his 2nd story back deck, which is 26 feet in the air. I honestly thought about moving to upstate New York but I get outvoted. Real estate seems affordable in the Tug Hull plateau. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 30 minutes ago, John1122 said: That's why if I went west I'd to to Mammoth. The town is at 8,000 feet with tons of housing at 9-10k around the resort. They seem extremely efficient at clearing roads too. The fellow who does one of the channels I watch lives at about 9100 in what looks basically like a subdivision. Last year snow depth was over his 2nd story back deck, which is 26 feet in the air. I honestly thought about moving to upstate New York but I get outvoted. Real estate seems affordable in the Tug Hull plateau. Yeah real estate is cheap in tug, but super remote. I love where I live because it’s a town of 60-70k people, can walk to everything I need and still get slammed. Has the best of both worlds. The snow belt of Lake Erie has spots that average 200”+ per year, tug has spots that average 300”+ per. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The 2 from last year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2022-2023&event=A Watched storm chaser live stream of those. Lightning and thunder at times as well. Fun to watch ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 22 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Watched storm chaser live stream of those. Lightning and thunder at times as well. Fun to watch ! Here’s my channel. I livestream pretty much every lake effect snow event. https://youtube.com/@BuffaloWeather1?si=ejBQEpKesBefZzoL 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here’s my channel. I livestream pretty much every lake effect snow event. https://youtube.com/@BuffaloWeather1?si=ejBQEpKesBefZzoL Subscribed ! I'll check it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Y'all have me looking at jobs in Watertown now, lol. In other news, anyone at TRI and SWVA see the 0z Euro: 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The GFS has it too and it took a big jump SE at 12z. That's been a decent trend this winter on modeling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 12z GFS still showing a fairly significant system around the 20-21st. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 If the MJO didn’t look so squirrelly, I would roll with the Euro Weeklies today and say, “Extended winter is on tap!” But something feels off with this. I think it is going to be cold...but duration is sketchy. I do think a cold time frame from Feb 14 through the first week of March looks good. After that is what I am not sure about...if the Weeklies are correct, the Groundhog in PA is just a wee a bit off his game. LOL 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Technically, the Weeklies have sped up the change at 500 to Feb 12. Surface temp response still appears to be around the 15th with the strongest cold arriving around the 20th and after that relative to norms. Very similar progression to early January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Mean while in Central and East China 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: If the MJO didn’t look so squirrelly, I would roll with the Euro Weeklies today and say, “Extended winter is on tap!” But something feels off with this. I think it is going to be cold...but duration is sketchy. I do think a cold time frame from Feb 14 through the first week of March looks good. After that is what I am not sure about...if the Weeklies are correct, the Groundhog in PA is just a wee a bit off his game. LOL Agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 What is the issue with the GFS retaining all the moisture around the gulf but never really meeting any of the colder air. Is there a reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The 18z GEFS jumped in the cold boat. I am confident in the 3 week timeframe from say Feb14 to March 7. If we manage to stay cold all (or most) of March, winter hasn't even started. That....is how cold modeling looks right now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 On pretty much all ensembles, the feature(and it is striking) the NAO that starts to build. If that is correct and not an error, that is significant. I have been hesitant to really jump on that boat as it failed during late January, but that is a prominent feature which would trump all other drivers most likely. During late winter, that is a "draw four" in Uno. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, weathertree4u2 said: What is the issue with the GFS retaining all the moisture around the gulf but never really meeting any of the colder air. Is there a reason why? That's a puzzle really,tbh. Strong HP pressing can do it. I read something somewhere of a recent "upgrade" to the Model. Sometimes those can turn out to be downgrades unfortunately. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Here's a very good research/study of February and March 1960 covering the Southern Appalachian Region. Click on Visit Site as it's in PDF Format. https://images.app.goo.gl/yVE87S6UhpbiYWUe6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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