weathertree4u2 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Not trying to be a wet blanket, but does anyone remember the year where there was almost complete agreement we were headed toward a great pattern. Almost all ensembles were pointing toward it, and I think we were fringe OP range. Then, a SSW occurred and modeling did a 180. I don't remember the year, but I remember having a very different view of SSW's the year that happened. Yea, was not that long ago doesnt seem like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The 1986 event. This is snow depth the next day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 16 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Not trying to be a wet blanket, but does anyone remember the year where there was almost complete agreement we were headed toward a great pattern. Almost all ensembles were pointing toward it, and I think we were fringe OP range. Then, a SSW occurred and modeling did a 180. I don't remember the year, but I remember having a very different view of SSW's the year that happened. It happened a few years ago. I think the cold went to Asia. This is the map of all SSWs and where the cold is most likely to arrive. The Eastern U.S. is actually a very favorable destination on average. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 28 minutes ago, John1122 said: It happened a few years ago. I think the cold went to Asia. This is the map of all SSWs and where the cold is most likely to arrive. The Eastern U.S. is actually a very favorable destination on average. Yeah I remember that year a few years back. Everything looked great! Then Europe went into the freaking freezer and if I'm not mistaken all we got out of it was a cool wet spring that started turning warm late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The Euro control (weeklies) snowfall map is significant. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The Euro Weeklies (mean surface temps) are quite cold. As for the SSW, the MJO rotating back into 4-6 is an outside concern, but that has been brewing for a few days. The MJO has been in error most time this winter when it does anything but take the cold and warm tours. Could be a loop back into 6 early on, but after that should be good. The strat split may not help/hurt us until early or mid March. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 The Mean looks much better today instead of aiming towards the Maritime long range,its more headed into the IO.Its going back into the WP(PHASE6) D5,then its pretty clustered going into the WH by D10,some odd ball are showing the GFS.As of day 20,break out the darts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: Not trying to be a wet blanket, but does anyone remember the year where there was almost complete agreement we were headed toward a great pattern. Almost all ensembles were pointing toward it, and I think we were fringe OP range. Then, a SSW occurred and modeling did a 180. I don't remember the year, but I remember having a very different view of SSW's the year that happened. It's def. a concern. I think it was the event of Jan 2019. It happened during a weak El Nino, while the convection was over the MC and looked to maybe make it to the centra Pac. I think I remember you even said something like "I'm starting to hate poorly placed tropical convection." Best case scenario for this one is it transpires while the MJO is in the Eastern Pac/ western hemisphere and reinforces that. Sometimes these will reenforce tropical convection wherever it is at the time of a warming because the strat over the tropics tends to cool and enable convection there, while the pole warms. If this one happens, it is happening about the same time as the one in 2018 that just made a miserable spring. We got plenty of blocking, about 20 or so days later, but it was too late. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 Actually just went back to Jan 2019 discussion and found this (image is a screenshot, post was from Eric Webb): I think we chased the pattern for all of January and finally got the Dayton leeside micro low "revenge of the strat storm" that gave Blount and Sevier counties a few inches, but that was it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 2 Author Share Posted February 2 Just as a comparison, here is the Himawari imagery from the time of SSW in 2019: Here is todays: Thoughts? (apologies for one being visible and one being infrared, I could only see visible imagery for the historic database) For me they do look somewhat similar, but remember that the SSW in 2019 was happening in the visible image, we still have a couple of weeks, if it does happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 hours ago, John1122 said: The 1986 event. This is snow depth the next day. Definitely off here. Official Measurement of 13.5" Pennington gap. I took a couple pics my brother has in an old Album. I'll try to get and post those.That is what we recently discussed; the validity of snowfall records. Btw, that was the Storm that dropped 6" between 1 and 2:15 P.M. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Definitely off here. Official Measurement of 13.5" Pennington gap. I took a couple pics my brother has in an old Album. I'll try to get and post those.That is what we recently discussed; the validity of snowfall records. Btw, that was the Storm that dropped 6" between 1 and 2:15 P.M. . Yep, 10 inches here, Tazewell has a 9.5 inch depth reported the next day on their official record. That said, these reanalysis maps are usually closer to the truth than the maps that NOAA generates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Couple members show a split 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just chilling until this gets into range. Pretty severe cold shot showing up on lr ext modeling from say Feb 18-25. It is very apparent on both the CFSv2 and Weeklies control. That looks like consequences from the SSW from January. Crazy looking pattern. The Euro control has nearly two feet of snow over TRI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I have a bunch of slides, but I think the MJO is so conflicted that I am hesitant to post some of the extreme cold showing up. I think (and a lot of modeling supports this) that the MJO rotates through phase 8....but there is a school of thought that it dodges 8 and crosses back into the warm phases w/ barely any time in the cold phases. We have a decent majority showing cold phases of the MJO....but the EMON is iffy. I also didn't like the end of the 12z EPS today as it broke continuity....and looked like the MJO flipped warm. So, I am going to play my cards close today....and look for trends over the next 48 hours. The CPC 3-4 week forecast has BN temps, but beware.... The GMON MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 There is a pretty epic cold pattern on a lot of modeling....but the fail potential here, and I must warn you, is much higher than the mid-January set-up. But if the cold verifies...great pattern potentially. If it doesn't....that is just the way it goes. So, we wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 46 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: There is a pretty epic cold pattern on a lot of modeling....but the fail potential here, and I must warn you, is much higher than the mid-January set-up. But if the cold verifies...great pattern potentially. If it doesn't....that is just the way it goes. So, we wait. MJO has been a thorn in our side more times than not the last several years. No need to elaborate as we all know the culprit. For the severe wx enthusiasts I'm sure they're rooting for the Emon depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I think I have made a mistake. What I thought was a change in continuity - is not. It is phase 8 to phase 1 w/ AN heights over the Mountain West and norther Plains. The model is progressing as planned. That also means the 12z EPS was in phase 8/1...good sign. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 And to tag on to my recent post and in the them of Monopoly....Bank error in your favor. Collect $200. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Well I mowed my yard for the first time this year. Truly remarkable how green it is. Sadly it appears the cold damaged & maybe even killed some of my shrubs that I just planted. Sigh. Today was absolutely picture perfect. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Hopefully the pattern can turn wetter as we head into Spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 CPC MJO plot update....the MJO appears to be set to take the tour through cold phases. They’re could be a loop in 7, but most global ensembles (notably the EMON), take the MJO through cold phases. I suspect we see modeling adjust rapidly to that trend if it is real - and it should be. We will be fighting daylight and sun angle, but looks like winter is gonna go one last round. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Could be the kiss of death for early severe which was what i was thinking could happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 All global ensembles are on track for NA to cool down to BN temps by mid-Feb and then hold for several weeks. I am sure there is some fluctuation within the overall 500 pattern, but that is a really, really good look. The 0z Euro control is quite cold. Is it going to be cold enough to snow? Time will tell. BN temps in Feb don't equal BN temps in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I will wait for 12z and the afternoon weeklies and maybe make a post later today. Very good overnight trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Hudson anyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 This updates in our afternoon each day.But the ensembles are pretty clustered D5 going back into the WP,then by D10 about to be or getting into the WH so we might have to wait until the last week of Feb to get colder it seems like to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 40 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Could be the kiss of death for early severe which was what i was thinking could happen For the sake of your (and everyone else’s) property insurance rates, we better hope we get a few tranquil years in a row…. Already seeing 20-35% increases this year, with more likely on the way in the years to come because of the last 3+ years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: For the sake of your (and everyone else’s) property insurance rates, we better hope we get a few tranquil years in a row…. Already seeing 20-35% increases this year, with more likely on the way in the years to come because of the last 3+ years. Yes my insurance on my vehicles went up substantially. Which is not all Wx related. Its lack of availability of parts & people staying in rentals much longer is part of the problem. I just dread a cold spring soccer season. They are not fun to sit in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Cold soccer season is not fun.I remember those days when my kids played 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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