February 2024 mid/ long range

[tnweathernut]

13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Big ol Miller A/B hybrid incoming on the 12z GFS in fantasy range. 

But the big high is dropping down again. Four out of the last five runs now. 

 

 

 

That run ended with a raging snowstorm in northern Mexico.............  lol 

One word summarizes the direction we are heading - "potential"

[Carvers Gap]

Well, the 12z GFS was a pretty good run.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS has the cold here by the 14th and is quicker by four days compared to the Weeklies which was derived from 0z.   To have the cold here as the tough arrives implies a storm in that mix to draw the air down. I don’t have a great internet connection, but great 12z suite.

[Carvers Gap]

Better WiFi now...The Euro Weeklies also are colder w/ the control being colder - very cold to be exact.   Looks like ensembles are swing the cold and a likely strong rotation into phase 8 of the MJO. Pattern change is at about d14 and progressing.  The colder ensemble looks(and the gefs was cold at 12z) tell me the warmer individuals are slowly getting tossed as we get closer.

[fountainguy97]

Phew those Carolina boys are flirting with a big event if that NE energy can phase in a few hours faster.

 

euro extended looks fabulous. I'd almost bet on it at this point. We are repeating the December/january pattern but MJO should be better I believe. 
 

Just like the January event models were hinting at this pattern change earlier in February and have pushed it back a couple weeks.  Classic occurrence for a legit change in the weather for the US as a whole. Look at the book-end storms of this upcoming pattern for potential big hitters into mid-late February. 

[BNAwx]

We’re obviously heading into a mid-February to mid-March 1960 kind of pattern.  
 

I wish…

[Itryatgolf70]

I definitely don't want dry cold lol. Hopefully we will get cold and moisture to combine for us for another opportunity. If the mjo is really advancing, the ensembles and weeklies will move up in time. Something to watch imo

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, BNAwx said:

We’re obviously heading into a mid-February to mid-March 1960 kind of pattern.  
 

I wish…

Wouldn't that be something to behold! 

[Itryatgolf70]

30 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wouldn't that be something to behold! 

We are due for sure!

[weathertree4u2]

my bigger concern is that we seem to be back into the pattern of a few days of rain then two weeks without rain. Any ideas when it might be different? Anybody? 

[Carvers Gap]

Don't really have much to add today.  The cold is coming into focus, but really we have about another week before really getting anything into a reasonable range to track.  Been following the Tennessee-Virginia vs NCAA case.

[John1122]

The EPO is going negative and the PNA positive around mid-month. That happened in the 2015 El Nino and we got harsh winter the last 10 days of February and the first week of March capped off winter with a West Tennessee blizzard. 

[Itryatgolf70]

51 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The EPO is going negative and the PNA positive around mid-month. That happened in the 2015 El Nino and we got harsh winter the last 10 days of February and the first week of March capped off winter with a West Tennessee blizzard. 

We had a heck of a winter storm March 2015! Best winter storm I've seen yet. 

[Carvers Gap]

As noted over the summer, the Mountain West would likely see their best winter early.  El Nino winters are no bueno for Montana and Wyoming.  Cooke City, Montana, has bare ground showing and pavement on their streets is seen.  Not sure I ever remember seeing that happen.  That is a major hit for an area dependent on snow for snow machines.  My guess is that drought will develop quite quickly for the summer, and that is not good news for obvious reasons.  Again, I am a little careful as to how I word things so as it doesn't provide an easy search in a search engine for parties up to no good.

[Carvers Gap]

Day 8-14 analogs:

19800207
19530209
19650228
19680207
20040209
19770211
19780216
19700209
19860206
20060207

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

As noted over the summer, the Mountain West would likely see their best winter early.  El Nino winters are no bueno for Montana and Wyoming.  Cooke City, Montana, has bare ground showing and pavement on their streets is seen.  Not sure I ever remember seeing that happen.  That is a major hit for an area dependent on snow for snow machines.  My guess is that drought will develop quite quickly for the summer, and that is not good news for obvious reasons.  Again, I am a little careful as to how I word things so as it doesn't provide an easy search in a search engine for parties up to no good.

It's funny you post this because I've been keeping up with the winter out in Utah and Colorado and the mountains have just been getting hammered this year.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As noted over the summer, the Mountain West would likely see their best winter early.  El Nino winters are no bueno for Montana and Wyoming.  Cooke City, Montana, has bare ground showing and pavement on their streets is seen.  Not sure I ever remember seeing that happen.  That is a major hit for an area dependent on snow for snow machines.  My guess is that drought will develop quite quickly for the summer, and that is not good news for obvious reasons.  Again, I am a little careful as to how I word things so as it doesn't provide an easy search in a search engine for parties up to no good.

I check out the Cams pretty regularly out west and in western Canada. Hard to believe, Jackson hole had mostly bare ground yesterday. Canmore Alberta same deal as the Snow cover they had had melted. Also, many area's in British Columbia had lost much of their snow pack. 

[Daniel Boone]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Day 8-14 analogs:

19800207
19530209
19650228
19680207
20040209
19770211
19780216
19700209
19860206
20060207

Mostly good Analogues there. Some great one's. 

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Day 8-14 analogs:

19800207
19530209
19650228
19680207
20040209
19770211
19780216
19700209
19860206
20060207

2-07-80 8 inches of snow from 2-6 to 2-8.  But it was the middle of a long/snowy stretch with quite a few below 0 lows and 17 straight days with snow on the ground here. 

2-28-65, mild with highs in the 60s. 

2-09-53 mild. Highs in the 50s

2-07-68 40s but went into the deep freeze the next day. Dry deep freeze. 

2-09-04 slightlybn, 40s./20s

2-11-77 climbed out of the deep freeze to near 60. 

2-16-78 chilly, 30s/20s, 2 inches of snow 

2-09-70 a few bn days in a row. But 3 or 4 degrees bn 

2-06-86 near 70 degree highs. We did get a huge Valentines day snow storm with 10 inches in 86. 

2-07-06 a couple days around -5bn but dry. 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

15 hours ago, weathertree4u2 said:

my bigger concern is that we seem to be back into the pattern of a few days of rain then two weeks without rain. Any ideas when it might be different? Anybody? 

I think we'll be ok, once we get out of this tropical forcing limbo we've been in for the past couple of weeks with the MJO loop in 6/7. 

 

As for other long range thoughts (not directly related to weathertree's question) this AM, the SOI 30 day average is now consistently falling.

 

I like to see the average tank, even more than big one day drops. Something bigger picture is going on then, IMO. Not going to worry much about the MJO until we get some looks that get us out of 6/7 loop purgatory. 

 

Another thing that some folks have been noticing is the SPV. Honestly, I kind of stopped looking since we had the earlier snow in mid range, but it looks like the SPV is going for a SSW again toward the third week of Feb. 

 

 

 

 

Here is the full tour of the GFS long range projection for the polar domain 10, 30, and 50 mb; temp anomalies and then height anomalies:

That is hands down the best looking attack on the SPV on all strat. levels I've seen this year. Could make for a cool wet spring if that happens. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

My big highs dropping down have stopped for now. I'm not surprised with the MJO loop. One thing that has remained consistent though is a bunch of available moisture sitting in the eastern Pac/ Baja region. 

 

[GaWx]

58 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think we'll be ok, once we get out of this tropical forcing limbo we've been in for the past couple of weeks with the MJO loop in 6/7. 

 

As for other long range thoughts (not directly related to weathertree's question) this AM, the SOI 30 day average is now consistently falling.

 

I like to see the average tank, even more than big one day drops. Something bigger picture is going on then, IMO. Not going to worry much about the MJO until we get some looks that get us out of 6/7 loop purgatory. 

 

Another thing that some folks have been noticing is the SPV. Honestly, I kind of stopped looking since we had the earlier snow in mid range, but it looks like the SPV is going for a SSW again toward the third week of Feb. 

 

 

 

 

Here is the full tour of the GFS long range projection for the polar domain 10, 30, and 50 mb; temp anomalies and then height anomalies:

That is hands down the best looking attack on the SPV on all strat. levels I've seen this year. Could make for a cool wet spring if that happens. 

 

 If the 6Z GFS 10 mb were to verify closely, that would result in a mid-month solid reversal/major SSW. There’d probably be significant implications for very late Feb into March in the E US based on the past. In other words, the chances of a very late spring would be increased.

[PowellVolz]

2-07-80 8 inches of snow from 2-6 to 2-8.  But it was the middle of a long/snowy stretch with quite a few below 0 lows and 17 straight days with snow on the ground here. 
2-28-65, mild with highs in the 60s. 
2-09-53 mild. Highs in the 50s
2-07-68 40s but went into the deep freeze the next day. Dry deep freeze. 
2-09-04 slightlybn, 40s./20s
2-11-77 climbed out of the deep freeze to near 60. 
2-16-78 chilly, 30s/20s, 2 inches of snow 
2-09-70 a few bn days in a row. But 3 or 4 degrees bn 
2-06-86 near 70 degree highs. We did get a huge Valentines day snow storm with 10 inches in 86. 
2-07-06 a couple days around -5bn but dry. 
 
 
 
 
 

I remember the Valentines snow in 86, I was in middle school. Help me out here… was that sorta of a surprise for people north of 40 in Knox Co? Maybe I’m getting that part confused but I remember doing Valentines Day stuff in school and it starts snowing chicken feathers. My dad had the only 4x4 in my subdivision and he made several trips to and from picking up kids and getting them home. (How I would love to go back to a time when no one worried about a kid getting kidnapped or abused if you sent them home with a parent of another student ). So in my middle school years I remember two major snow events. The V Day storm and one that happened maybe in April? One of these storms was a surprise because we all got stuck at school. I remember watching the weather later that night and they showed South Knoxville with only rain while Powell/Halls had 6-10”.


.

[RawCrabMeat]

Groundhog did not see his shadow. Now, I’m not one to argue with his omniscient wisdom, but I’m not sure I fully agree with the early spring prediction. I mean, multiple recent gfs runs have a snowstorm in northern MEXICO by the end of 384 hours, lol. 

[John1122]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I remember the Valentines snow in 86, I was in middle school. Help me out here… was that sorta of a surprise for people north of 40 in Knox Co? Maybe I’m getting that part confused but I remember doing Valentines Day stuff in school and it starts snowing chicken feathers. My dad had the only 4x4 in my subdivision and he made several trips to and from picking up kids and getting them home. (How I would love to go back to a time when no one worried about a kid getting kidnapped or abused if you sent them home with a parent of another student ). So in my middle school years I remember two major snow events. The V Day storm and one that happened maybe in April? One of these storms was a surprise because we all got stuck at school. I remember watching the weather later that night and they showed South Knoxville with only rain while Powell/Halls had 6-10”.


.

The snowline in 1986 was south of 40 in East Tennessee. It snowed 5-6 inches in  Oak Ridge,  Lenoir City, and at McGhee-Tys. By Athens and Chattanooga there was only a trace though.  The highs south of 40 were around 35, along 40 around 32, and along the Kentucky/VA border, upper 20s. Strangely for the set up, it only snowed 2 inches in Crossville with a high of 33 on .70 precip. It snowed 6-8 inches in Fentress County just north of Crossville. 

I don't remember it being a surprise though. Just that back them you went to school and if it started snowing, you went home.  

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Ramblerbeat me to it.  Just too good not to have in the main thread.

 

 

[jaxjagman]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Ramblerbeat me to it.  Just too good not to have in the main thread.

 

 

Not sure about the GFS,it seems to be hinting at bringing  back a +EAMT and the MJO stays into the WP a bit longer.But there is some feedback problems it seems but its been showing this the last couple runs but dont have much of any support.Just about every model i look at shows the MJO going into the WH mid month

[jaxjagman]

That's really a considerable spread as we head past the Mid month of Feb,sometimes tho as we all know the GFS can pull a rabbit out of its hat in the long range,not often but it does happen

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The snowline in 1986 was south of 40 in East Tennessee. It snowed 5-6 inches in  Oak Ridge,  Lenoir City, and at McGhee-Tys. By Athens and Chattanooga there was only a trace though.  The highs south of 40 were around 35, along 40 around 32, and along the Kentucky/VA border, upper 20s. Strangely for the set up, it only snowed 2 inches in Crossville with a high of 33 on .70 precip. It snowed 6-8 inches in Fentress County just north of Crossville. 

I don't remember it being a surprise though. Just that back them you went to school and if it started snowing, you went home.  

Wound up with 13.5 Inches from that one. 

[tnweathernut]

Not trying to be a wet blanket, but does anyone remember the year where there was almost complete agreement we were headed toward a great pattern.  Almost all ensembles were pointing toward it, and I think we were fringe OP range.  Then, a SSW occurred and modeling did a 180.  I don't remember the year, but I remember having a very different view of SSW's the year that happened.