Met1985 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Some of the great winter patterns of E TN are mid-Feb to mid-March. Got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. I am somewhere between hold'em and run! LOL. Anyway, storm track looks like a classic Nino end game. No idea if it verifies, but it could certainly be worse. You are exactly right. This looks like classic NINO in February. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Thanks for the feedback . I’m actually located in western nc in Graham county (right on the TN line) but the past few gfs runs have had me under a warm nose I guess? I enjoy reading this Tenn valley forum. .What’s your elevation? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Some of the great winter patterns of E TN are mid-Feb to mid-March. Got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. I am somewhere between hold'em and run! LOL. Anyway, storm track looks like a classic Nino end game. No idea if it verifies, but it could certainly be worse. This is probably captain obvious but I’ll be shocked if that doesn’t verify at or above 2k feet. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheoahBald1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 What’s your elevation? .2100’. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, CheoahBald1 said: 2100’ . Welcome to this forum! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 hours ago, CheoahBald1 said: 2100’ . Welcome aboard! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2100’.That’s plenty high enough considering where your location is to score on most setups. It’s nice to have more people spread out at different elevations. Feel free to post more. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Feels like the family I've always been missing 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 15 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Some of the great winter patterns of E TN are mid-Feb to mid-March. Got to know when to hold'em, know when to fold'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run. I am somewhere between hold'em and run! LOL. Anyway, storm track looks like a classic Nino end game. No idea if it verifies, but it could certainly be worse. Ouch, ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The 1050 high at the end of the 18z GFS shows us the possibility of the upcoming pattern. I would be very surprised to see any cold get buried in the West after the 15th. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u2 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 1050 high at the end of the 18z GFS shows us the possibility of the upcoming pattern. I would be very surprised to see any cold get buried in the West after the 15th. Yea, looks like a good pattern after the middle of the month, seems like someone has been saying something about the middle of the month 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 The end of that GFS run looked ideal. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The 12z GEPS puts the Lower 48 in the freezer. The GEFS isn't far behind. Ensembles are cooling off. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The end of that GFS run looked ideal. I was about to say, finally some real cold looked to filter down at the end of that run. When it's raining in Minnesota, it's hard to get snow here. lol I know it's the GFS at 384, but it lines up with what some of y'all of been saying about mid February onward and opportunities. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 1050 high at the end of the 18z GFS shows us the possibility of the upcoming pattern. I would be very surprised to see any cold get buried in the West after the 15th. Think u meant 12zgfs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GEPS puts the Lower 48 in the freezer. The GEFS isn't far behind. Ensembles are cooling off. The 2m temps still looked warm, especially the gefs. Hopefully that changes. John homenuk still seems interested lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 30 Author Share Posted January 30 Big high again on the long range 18z GFS. If it starts spitting those out consistently, some good cold is probably coming. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The 2m temps still looked warm, especially the gefs. Hopefully that changes. John homenuk still seems interested lolA lot of the Twitter Mets that matter believe this is coming. Let’s not forget that the mods didn’t get on board with the last cold until about 3 weeks out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: The 2m temps still looked warm, especially the gefs. Hopefully that changes. John homenuk still seems interested lol The 2m temps on the GEPS were not warm at all - the opposite. I look at the GEFS for trends. It is cooling off. The GFS at 18z has the cold front again. Over time, ensembles will begin to add or subtract colder individuals. So, watching trends means the model is doing exactly that. I have heard a rule that if the GEPS is cold and getting colder...pay attention. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Think u meant 12zgfs lol LOL. Or I got an early look at the 18z run which has a 1052 at 372. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Big high again on the long range 18z GFS. If it starts spitting those out consistently, some good cold is probably coming. Yeah, good sign to see that. Maybe the only "fly in the ointment" is the Euro Weeklies have been trending slightly warmer with each run, but still cold. That said, they did the exact same thing around Christmas. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, good sign to see that. Maybe the only "fly in the ointment" is the Euro Weeklies have been trending slightly warmer with each run, but still cold. That said, they did the exact same thing around Christmas. Carver, don't want no mo kicking can stuff lol. Imo, if mjo moves quickly or refires, ensembles will adjust very fast!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, good sign to see that. Maybe the only "fly in the ointment" is the Euro Weeklies have been trending slightly warmer with each run, but still cold. That said, they did the exact same thing around Christmas. I’ve also been wondering about that fly in the ointment the last few days despite a still good looking pattern at H5. Also, the CFS ensemble means have been trending warmer for March while trending colder for Feb. We’ll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 Here we have it again at 6z: Plenty of shortwaves upstream NW/ W/ and SW: Not identical, but similar to 12z and 18z yesterday: But notably not 0z overnight. I mean don't know, what are the odds that a randomized model spits out a similar solution at 384 hours, especially after having a run that doesn't look quite the same and one run that looks totally different. I know, I know. But let's see over the coming days if there is something about the upcoming pattern that favors such an outcome. Wouldn't be surprised to see it pushed back by a few days, or if the trough ends up further west, but what I am looking for is consistency at this range. Just so I don't seem too weenyish, the Euro control looks different: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 -21 on the SOI today. Finally managed to clear that pesky convection from just over Darwin. But notice there is still some convective activity in N Australia and over the Maritime Continent. Convection over 4/5/6/7/8 = 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 If the MJO basically hangs around 7 it could favor, as You mentioned, a further west mean Trough. However, with blocking that should extend that trough, at least at times, east . If we can get that -EPO and PNA Ridge the Trough would probably setup Rockies to Apps . Similar to last Arctic Outbreak area . With all that said, if you take into account El Nino Ph 7 then you get a further East Trough. So, interesting period upcoming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: -21 on the SOI today. Finally managed to clear that pesky convection from just over Darwin. But notice there is still some convective activity in N Australia and over the Maritime Continent. Convection over 4/5/6/7/8 = Yeah and the WWB by the Mean takes it back into the WP for a brief time,starting to have my doubts it gets cold around the mid month,not real cold anyways 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Yeah and the WWB by the Mean takes it back into the WP for a brief time,starting to have my doubts it gets cold around the mid month,not real cold anyways Definitely a fly in the ointment. If it just doesn't go back to 6 I think we'll be alright with the Nino and blocking present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Definite some colder signs,upcoming.Not sure about the NAO,GEFS looks slightly +ve 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 Big ol Miller A/B hybrid incoming on the 12z GFS in fantasy range. But the big high is dropping down again. Four out of the last five runs now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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