Silas Lang Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12z GFS interesting. Flirting with something big on the 5th. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The 12z CMC has a strong Miller B solution for the MA and another lower latitude system after that. I wasn’t sold on that timeframe earlier...but the potential is there for sure. The 12z gfs went OTS, but if I showed its solution with a powerful slp over Louisiana...might make one think twice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Here is the MJO back into 2021 compared to this year,the stopping point is Feb 18th.We had a major winter storm Feb14-15 in Middle Tn.See and similarity? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 And the CMC is...something. Takes the Gulf low due north to Nashville then transfers to Asheville then finally goes to the coast with another low popping off the coast of GA at the end. Sort of crazy look all over the place. EDIT: to be clear, this about the storm potential on the 5th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Silas, you posted it. Awesome. That is a powerhouse. The GFS is often too progressive (exception was last winter), so that could be big. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: And the CMC is...something. takes the Gulf low due north to Nashville then transfers to Asheville then finally goes to the coast with another low popping off the coast of GA at the end. Sort of crazy look all over the place. Textbook Miller B, Mid Atlantic track. Energy goes through middle TN and then hands off to the Piedmont. Not good for us, but certainly that is a big storm signal for them and maybe NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12z Gefs and Geps.... MSLP and individual surface low placement maps (where all lows are on one map), show a trend towards a deeper low with more members to the north and west of the mean placement. Plenty of time for this to get bigger. Classic Nino, low road track. The Canadian ensemble has some big dog tracks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Textbook Miller B, Mid Atlantic track. Energy goes through middle TN and then hands off to the Piedmont. Not good for us, but certainly that is a big storm signal for them and maybe NC. Yeah, now that you mention it, I seem to remember this happening a few years ago. I was thinking "there is no way that low travels due north"...and it very well did! lol Wasn't there another one last year (maybe the year before) where the low travelled straight into the mountains? Regardless, I don't like energy transfers. Hope it stays a simple Gulf low for all of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I would say roughly 40% of ensembles from both the GEFS and GEPS have a big winter storm for the SE and/or MA. That is a pretty stout signal at this range. I think for the TN Valley, this is a tougher sell at this point. I would be fired up in the MA. E TN and NE TN(especially) are in the game...Gefs seemed to have more TN storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Silas Lang said: Yeah, now that you mention it, I seem to remember this happening a few years ago. I was thinking "there is no way that low travels due north"...and it very well did! lol Wasn't there another one last year (maybe the year before) where the low travelled straight into the mountains? Regardless, I don't like energy transfers. Hope it stays a simple Gulf low for all of us. Sneaky big storm at this range right now. Boone was on this from day one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I feel like the 12z GEFS does not support the operational run. I would say half probably have a decent snowstorm somewhere in the SE....there are some progressive OTS members for sure. However, the GEFS has more amped solutions than even the GEPS. Not in a place where I can post... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Here is the velocity comparing 2021 vs 2024,1st map is 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Then go ahead into mid March you can see what actually transpired in 2021,not saying this will happen again,just pointing stuff from 2021 vs 2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 19 hours ago, John1122 said: I just saw some verification scores, and what should be much to it's embarrassment, the GFS at 500 has been scoring worse than even the JMA. I know it’s been shared before but can you remind some of us where we can find these verification scores? I think it would be a fascinating study to analyze model scores by the six ENSO patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Meh,lets let it go,i shouldnt have said anything myself . You didn't mean anything wrong man. It's alright brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 The 12z GEPS now looks like the EPS ext from yesterday....The GEPS gets there about 24 hours quicker. Either way, this is what we mean when we begin to see Weeklies and global ensembles in sync. Pretty good agreement between two different models. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 And I should add that long pauses in winter are customary in the valleys. We don't do wall-to-wall winters very often as that is an extreme anomaly which doesn't occur but maybe every 15-20 years at best. Having February look that decent is a massive bonus and that is a textbook Nino look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GEPS now looks like the EPS ext from yesterday....The GEPS gets there about 24 hours quicker. Either way, this is what we mean when we begin to see Weeklies and global ensembles in sync. Pretty good agreement between two different models. This would be similar to what the GFS is showing with a warm up in East Asia which should possibly be into the 2nd week of Feb, for us then the heights fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GEPS now looks like the EPS ext from yesterday....The GEPS gets there about 24 hours quicker. Either way, this is what we mean when we begin to see Weeklies and global ensembles in sync. Pretty good agreement between two different models. Certainly as of today someone could get a winter storm towards the mid month of Feb in our parts if the teles work in our favor 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 It still amazes me how the pattern looks so similar to 2021.I had to rub my eyes,check it over and over and over to make sure i had the right dates,even the MJO into the IO almost did the same thing into Jan around the same exact time frame 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Quite a few more members today showing the MJO into the WH as we are into Feb.Mean doesnt seem to have a whole lot of support 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This is actually pretty nice the GEFS and EPS are on the same page,you can look at Carvers map above and the pattern should be something similar to his maps around mid Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Interesting. I said my grass is like spring green right now. Really weird after all the cold & snow we just had Snow has nitrogen in it. That’s why it’s green. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Aa far as believing, not that I do but, no different than believing 70 degrees that far out or posting something regarding a mild rainstorm. Are you criticising any of that ? As far as DT, I'm not a fan of him personally ( attitude problem) but, he is still overall a good Meteorologist. Yep… Some people: 220 hours out and 70 degrees = *cancel winter*Same people: 220 hours out and snow = *no way that’s happening*. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, PowellVolz said: Yep… Some people: 220 hours out and 70 degrees = *cancel winter* Same people: 220 hours out and snow = *no way that’s happening*. . I was not at all downing DT. He is a good forecaster but just like in this forum. We are told to take it with any LR with a grain of salt. DT makes it sound like it’s a done deal. Which he does a lot of his forecasting to get clicks & make $. Just like Bastardi. I don’t ever go with any LR forecasting on temps or precip. Chances are it will always be closer to averages for both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I was not at all downing DT. He is a good forecaster but just like in this forum. We are told to take it with any LR with a grain of salt. DT makes it sound like it’s a done deal. Which he does a lot of his forecasting to get clicks & make $. Just like Bastardi. I don’t ever go with any LR forecasting on temps or precip. Chances are it will always be closer to averages for both. I wasn’t pointing that at you but reading it again I see why you might have thought that. Sorry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Anybody have the euro weeklies from today? Didn't see it posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 42 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I wasn’t pointing that at you but reading it again I see why you might have thought that. Sorry . No reason to apologize. We’re all good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Anybody have the euro weeklies from today? Didn't see it posted. Maybe because its still Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 35 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Maybe because its still Sunday Okay. I thought they came out every day now. My apologies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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