Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Latest BOX

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

I don’t know what blend of models or crack the Wunderground app uses but it has me getting 8-13”.    
 

[NotSureWeather]

Last HRRR run looks a bit SE, slower and colder. Not by much, but every mile and degree will matter for some people.

[NotSureWeather]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Latest BOX

 

1-2” baby! LFG!

[Damage In Tolland]

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

An upper level trough and coastal low will bring rain, snow, and
mixed precipitation today into tonight. Radar currently shows
precipitation starting to enter the region from the west initially
as rain, but flipping to snow first for higher elevations above
500ft. Rain will then change over to snow for lower elevations
excluding the South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands where precip
will remain as rain all day. The heaviest snowfall looks to be
between 10am-2pm which is when the best moisture and lift will be
present in the dendritic growth zone. After 2pm, a dry slot works in
from the south cutting moisture to the dendritic growth zone. With
the lighter precip rates, expecting snow to flip back to rain or a
rain/snow mix for elevations under 500 feet while over 500 feet
should remain as light snow.

The latest model guidance continues to highlight the best chance for
6+ inches of snow across the highest elevations of 800-1000
feet. Confidence in snowfall amounts decrease significantly for
lower elevations esspically below 500 feet due to surface
temperatures slightly above freezing and mixed precipitation.
Generally expecting snow totals of 3-6 inches across all of
northern MA and extending south down the I-495 corridor and into
northeastern CT where winter weather advisories are now in
effect. Winter Weather Advisories have also been added for the
CT River Valley in MA where 2-6 inches are possible. Winds begin
to pick up out of the NE in the afternoon at 15-25mph. Highs
top out in the low to mid 30s, with 40s near the coasts

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

As the coastal low pulls away to the NE, cold northerly flow will
allow for any areas with a rain/snow mix to change back over to all
snow after midnight. Latest model guidance has increased snowfall
totals for NE MA during this portion of the event with some stronger
deformation zone snow bands forming overnight. Its not out of the
question that 6 inches of snow could fall in Essex and Middlesex
counties due to this. However, opted to stick with a Winter Weather
Advisory for those counties due to low confidence in over 6 inches
at this time. Winds continue to increase overnight due to a
tightening pressure gradient with gusts of 20-30mph inland and 40-
50mph near the coasts. Overnight lows only drop into the upper 20s
to low 30s.

[Modfan2]

35F and rain.

[NotSureWeather]

35F and le drizzle.

[UnitedWx]

Rain sleet/something half frozen here and 34 degrees 

[The 4 Seasons]

39 and rain. Compete non event

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

39 and rain. Compete non event

The 3 Seasons?

[NotSureWeather]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

39 and rain. Compete non event

Yeah! Just because it’s a non event doesn’t mean it should give up! 

[Damage In Tolland]

I don’t have a good feeling about this part 1 this morning 

[UnitedWx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t have a good feeling about this part 1 this morning 

Yeah if it's at best a mix here it's going to take a lot of work everywhere else. Next couple hours will be telling once it gets going some more

[Snowcrazed71]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t have a good feeling about this part 1 this morning 

Yeah... I haven't felt good about any of this. Even part 2 tonight may not be enough to do anything meaningful for us.. but if anyone has a chance it the highest in the northwest hills..than by you.

[Modfan2]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t have a good feeling about this part 1 this morning 

We tried to tell them! 

[mahk_webstah]

Strange outside. Our advisor doesn’t start till 1 PM today but it sure looks like there’s a lot of precipitation about to move in. Also, it’s foggy and I don’t ever recall a snowstorm starting in fog.

[Patrick-02540]

Heavy rain with paws mixing in.  33.8.  .31" wasted so far.  

[ORH_wxman]

We’ll see if Kevin can flip in the next 1-2 hours. If not, that basically means nada for most of CT east of Litchfield county at least. 
 

Dual pol does look like snow north of Ginxy in N RI and extreme NE CT but hard to say if any of that is reaching the ground as snow or just melts prior to reaching sfc. 

[ORH_wxman]

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if Kevin can flip in the next 1-2 hours. If not, that basically means nada for most of CT east of Litchfield county at least. 
 

Dual pol does look like snow north of Ginxy in N RI and extreme NE CT but hard to say if any of that is reaching the ground as snow or just melts prior to reaching sfc. 

So basically if it’s not snowing  by 8:00 AM it’s another MLK type deal? And nothing overnight/ Monday?

[moneypitmike]

I'm thinking 3" will be a stretch here at the mid-point of 495

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So basically if it’s not snoring by 8:00 AM it’s another MLK type deal? And nothing overnight/ Monday?

Not even sure it’s another MLK. I don’t think it looks that good up in MA either…I’d be surprised if anyone got more than 4-5” except maybe northern half of ORH county/southern monads and over to Berkshires. 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That radar is very instructive for what is going on up here. On other radar. On other radars looks like a main push of precip up to New Hampshire but that’s not what’s happening clearly.

[Prismshine Productions]

I'm going to go 1-3" in Bratt cause we in a valley, 300' elevation not gonna cut it

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Modfan2]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll see if Kevin can flip in the next 1-2 hours. If not, that basically means nada for most of CT east of Litchfield county at least. 
 

Dual pol does look like snow north of Ginxy in N RI and extreme NE CT but hard to say if any of that is reaching the ground as snow or just melts prior to reaching sfc. 

34F and raining just to my north in Woodstock so not sure it’s looking to promising; would like to see some reports from S ORH county to see if anyone is mixing.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

.65” rain 35.1 degrees. Good watering for the grass, should green things up some more. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

.65” rain 35.1 degrees. Good watering for the grass, should green things up some more. 

Send some of that wolf yp here where it’s cold enough.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

34F and raining just to my north in Woodstock so not sure it’s looking too promising; would like to see some reports from S ORH county to see if anyone is mixing.

Yeah I think we want to see some snow reports by 8-9am in N CT to be optimistic about at least advisory snows. I was looping the meso guidance and pound time really needs to happen there between 9am-1pm…so if you’re still struggling to snow once into that time range, it’s prob not happening for accumulations. 

[Johnno]

Currently living with the in-laws for the winter at about 1000’ in Barkhamsted, will be interesting to see how today plays out here compared to Canton, currently 32.5 and ra

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we want to see some snow reports by 8-9am in N CT to be optimistic about at least advisory snows. I was looping the meso guidance and pound time really needs to happen there between 9am-1pm…so if you’re still struggling to snow once into that time range, it’s prob not happening for accumulations. 

Do you see any evidence that it can become isothermal once the heavy stuff arrives ? There’s reports of sleet and snow in SW CT and SE NY according to Walt.