Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[tavwtby]

43 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

It’s almost like weather forecasting is difficult.

it's like saying trust me bro...

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Just sittin’ there thumpin’?

Nice death band Mon morning.  NAM would be pretty special 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM keeps it going into Monday afternoon for a chunk of the area. 

[tavwtby]

25 minutes ago, FXWX said:

As good as any I've seen... bust potential is big across the higher elevations of Litchfield CTY, western Hartford Cty, and northern Tolland & Windam counites...  almost no way to show the possible variations across the northern half of CT on any map.  I'm right on the Litchfield Cty border sitting at about 1,140' but a few miles away it 200 to 300' of elevation...????

yeah, tough call just south of the pike region even in higher elevation I think

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice death band Mon morning.  NAM would be pretty special 

Take em’ up?

[Typhoon Tip]

33/32s and 34/33s showing up across the home network enough in multitude that I don’t believe that’s fake. Plenty cold enough given the thermal profile of this thing
 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Take em’ up?

Based on the NAM no thank you Mam

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM keeps it going into Monday afternoon for a chunk of the area. 

Piles up on BUFKIT at ORH 4.5 on WAA 6.75 on CAA ratios up to 16 to 1 in those outer bands

[FXWX]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you able to post them here?

No, I do not post my client bases info on social media... but you would find them to be closely aligned with the general sentiments of many of the mets on here; discussing the marginal surface air mass, the very marginal 850 temps during the period(s) of hvy precip and how minute changes during these periods could allow for bursts of hvy wet snow in areas that might right now appear to me mostly in all rain or snow/rain mix zone.  I also outlined my thoughts about how portions of Lit cty eastward into the high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, northern Tolland cty & northern Windham cty could over-perform some of the numbers on local media snowfall maps.  You're in one of the areas likely to see several inch snowfall amount differences within a very short drive.  Much of this is highly dependent on precip rates in some locations being able to sustain an isothermal profile.   This would have been such as easy forecast with just a seasonable air mass sfc and/or aloft...  My original post was that for some storms it's easier to describe using bullet points and no maps, given the tendency for folks to lock into a number on the map and not reading any accompanying narrative...  I think you could be good for 6 to 9???

[HinghamBoss]

3K NAM is mighty interesting in these parts.  Isn’t the NAM better at sniffing out low level temps?

[HoarfrostHubb]

10:1 clown for what it’s worth

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The Monday stuff would be the only way we are getting anything noteworthy here 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Snow depth change 

[HoarfrostHubb]

That’s not bad.  But it is the NAM

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That’s not bad.  But it is the NAM

3k lol

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, FXWX said:

No, I do not post my client bases info on social media... but you would find them to be closely aligned with the general sentiments of many of the mets on here; discussing the marginal surface air mass, the very marginal 850 temps during the period(s) of hvy precip and how minute changes during these periods could allow for bursts of hvy wet snow in areas that might right now appear to me mostly in all rain or snow/rain mix zone.  I also outlined my thoughts about how portions of Lit cty eastward into the high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, northern Tolland cty & northern Windham cty could over-perform some of the numbers on local media snowfall maps.  You're in one of the areas likely to see several inch snowfall amount differences within a very short drive.  Much of this is highly dependent on precip rates in some locations being able to sustain an isothermal profile.   This would have been such as easy forecast with just a seasonable air mass sfc and/or aloft...  My original post was that for some storms it's easier to describe using bullet points and no maps, given the tendency for folks to lock into a number on the map and not reading any accompanying narrative...  I think you could be good for 6 to 9???

Thanks for the detailed analysis and post John . As you well know living in a hilltown and especially on a hilltop , many times is not the same as 75% of the rest of the town . Last Feb’s extremely local icestorm was probably the biggest example in my area. Your area higher and in NW CT certainly is favored. 6-9” there seems fairly likely . This area is prone to mid level issues which is why I am erring 3-6” , but admittedly it’s a razor sharp line . The hope is these cold trends continue one more model cycle and we get our valley and S CT folks some good snows. 

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks for the detailed analysis and post John . As you well know living in a hilltown and especially on a hilltop , many times is not the same as 75% of the rest of the town . Last Feb’s extremely local icestorm was probably the biggest example in my area. Your area higher and in NW CT certainly is favored. 6-9” there seems fairly likely . This area is prone to mid level issues which is why I am erring 3-6” , but admittedly it’s a razor sharp line . The hope is these cold trends continue one more model cycle and we get our valley and S CT folks some good snows. 

Agree... I would not dismiss any option at this time... Hoping qpf rates stay healthy Sunday morning... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM keeps it going into Monday afternoon for a chunk of the area. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-sunday-monday-low-to.html

 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

FWIW, the 00z ICON looks nearly identical to the 18z.

[FXWX]

43 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah, tough call just south of the pike region even in higher elevation I think

It's low confidence for a variety of outcomes across most of CT...  I'm just happy it's a Sunday event, which greatly lowers my forecasting stress levels...

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Snow depth change 

That’s showing a 4-8” at elevation and 2-5” valley type event for a good chunk of geographic area through northern SNE and CNE.  Most folks would sign up for that when considering thermal profiles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My one year old will not stop shitting molten lava....holy off topic, but the poor kid's a$$....yikes, the joys of parenthood.....maybe I'll soothe his wounds with my Final Call map on Monday.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

Similar, just a bit toned down.

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

Very easy, pick whichever one gives you more snow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

Neither will be right. No model ever is.  And the snow depth maps are to be taken with many grains of salt but they can offer some insight. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

The NAM NARCAN gives Foxborough 3-4".

[40/70 Benchmark]

00z REGGIE is a general 2-5" with a spot-6" in the Berkshires.

[Snowcrazed71]

Lol... You guys are funny. I'm going with maybe 1" of slush early tomorrow... And over night..maybe another 1". I'm not expecting anything more where I'm at, even though I sit almost 500 feet above sea level. If we get anything more than a few inches, it will be good surprise.