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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Prismshine Productions
Prismshine Productions

Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

dryslot
dryslot

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

dendrite
dendrite

ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 1:52 AM, FXWX said:

As good as any I've seen... bust potential is big across the higher elevations of Litchfield CTY, western Hartford Cty, and northern Tolland & Windam counites...  almost no way to show the possible variations across the northern half of CT on any map.  I'm right on the Litchfield Cty border sitting at about 1,140' but a few miles away it 200 to 300' of elevation...????

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yeah, tough call just south of the pike region even in higher elevation I think

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 1:51 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you able to post them here?

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No, I do not post my client bases info on social media... but you would find them to be closely aligned with the general sentiments of many of the mets on here; discussing the marginal surface air mass, the very marginal 850 temps during the period(s) of hvy precip and how minute changes during these periods could allow for bursts of hvy wet snow in areas that might right now appear to me mostly in all rain or snow/rain mix zone.  I also outlined my thoughts about how portions of Lit cty eastward into the high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, northern Tolland cty & northern Windham cty could over-perform some of the numbers on local media snowfall maps.  You're in one of the areas likely to see several inch snowfall amount differences within a very short drive.  Much of this is highly dependent on precip rates in some locations being able to sustain an isothermal profile.   This would have been such as easy forecast with just a seasonable air mass sfc and/or aloft...  My original post was that for some storms it's easier to describe using bullet points and no maps, given the tendency for folks to lock into a number on the map and not reading any accompanying narrative...  I think you could be good for 6 to 9???

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 2:27 AM, FXWX said:

No, I do not post my client bases info on social media... but you would find them to be closely aligned with the general sentiments of many of the mets on here; discussing the marginal surface air mass, the very marginal 850 temps during the period(s) of hvy precip and how minute changes during these periods could allow for bursts of hvy wet snow in areas that might right now appear to me mostly in all rain or snow/rain mix zone.  I also outlined my thoughts about how portions of Lit cty eastward into the high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, northern Tolland cty & northern Windham cty could over-perform some of the numbers on local media snowfall maps.  You're in one of the areas likely to see several inch snowfall amount differences within a very short drive.  Much of this is highly dependent on precip rates in some locations being able to sustain an isothermal profile.   This would have been such as easy forecast with just a seasonable air mass sfc and/or aloft...  My original post was that for some storms it's easier to describe using bullet points and no maps, given the tendency for folks to lock into a number on the map and not reading any accompanying narrative...  I think you could be good for 6 to 9???

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Thanks for the detailed analysis and post John . As you well know living in a hilltown and especially on a hilltop , many times is not the same as 75% of the rest of the town . Last Feb’s extremely local icestorm was probably the biggest example in my area. Your area higher and in NW CT certainly is favored. 6-9” there seems fairly likely . This area is prone to mid level issues which is why I am erring 3-6” , but admittedly it’s a razor sharp line . The hope is these cold trends continue one more model cycle and we get our valley and S CT folks some good snows. 

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 2:44 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Thanks for the detailed analysis and post John . As you well know living in a hilltown and especially on a hilltop , many times is not the same as 75% of the rest of the town . Last Feb’s extremely local icestorm was probably the biggest example in my area. Your area higher and in NW CT certainly is favored. 6-9” there seems fairly likely . This area is prone to mid level issues which is why I am erring 3-6” , but admittedly it’s a razor sharp line . The hope is these cold trends continue one more model cycle and we get our valley and S CT folks some good snows. 

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Agree... I would not dismiss any option at this time... Hoping qpf rates stay healthy Sunday morning... 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 3:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

nam-218-all-massachusetts-total_snow_kuchera-6680800.png

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Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 3:06 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

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Similar, just a bit toned down.

 

nam-nest-massachusetts-total_snow_kuchera-6616000.png

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AstronomyEnjoyer

AstronomyEnjoyer

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 3:06 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

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Very easy, pick whichever one gives you more snow.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
  On 1/28/2024 at 3:06 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Okay help me out. I am so confused. Every time people post the NAM model with the 3k or 12k. Who says a 3K is right? Who says it's 12K is right. What's the deal. Seriously, I'm just not sure. It's very confusing. Trying to understand why there's two separate ones and which one would be more fitting for this event

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Neither will be right. No model ever is.  And the snow depth maps are to be taken with many grains of salt but they can offer some insight. 

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