Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can also recall times when I took them as gospel and they were too light. You keep a better personal inventory of this shit when you actually forecast...no offense intended at all...I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all.

No doubt, I feel like this is a storm where they may score though.

[NotSureWeather]

It’s almost like weather forecasting is difficult.

[dendrite]

Just now, NotSureWeather said:

It’s almost like weather forecasting is difficult.

Username checks out

[NotSureWeather]

Just now, dendrite said:

Username checks out

I was being sarcastic, but yes it does.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, NotSureWeather said:

It’s almost like weather forecasting is difficult.

In this type of storm it really is. 
 

ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

No doubt, I feel like this is a storm where they may score though.

We'll see. If I'm wrong, then I'll try to understand why and move on.

[NotSureWeather]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In this type of storm it really is. 
 

ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are. 

Yeah I’m in New Bedford, not expecting anything.

[Spanks45]

49 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too 

Baseball @zone nation, 1pm tomorrow...should be an interesting drive if anything with the elevation changes from here to there

Hoping for a positive bust, but expecting mostly white rain here

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

15 minutes ago, George001 said:

Perfect low track in late Jan and we can’t get enough goddamn cold air to snow. Can’t make this shit up. I understand that it’s not going to snow a ton every year, but winter should feel like winter. This shit is not winter.

Get used to it. Global trends are not your friend.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Baseball @zone nation, 1pm tomorrow...should be an interesting drive if anything with the elevation changes from here to there

Hoping for a positive bust, but expecting mostly white rain here

Ya they are about 450-500’ there . You go from sea level to 650’ in about 2-3 miles 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see. If I'm wrong, then I'll try to understand why and move on.

I’m or out for work Monday? What’s your call lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m or out for work Monday? What’s your call lol

Work...but I am not lol

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Username checks out

Confusedsureweather?

[NotSureWeather]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Confusedsureweather?

I’m not confused. I know that I’m not sure.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Ok, I had to stop watching at hour 40. Cause what in the hell is this? 00z HRRR. This shit is the dreams of a computer.

[wx2fish]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was conflicted.....the NARCAN maps are are so paltry....part of me wishes I had incorporated them and positive snow depth change more, but sometimes NARCAN  is too conservative. But this is the type of marginal situation where they may just sniff the terd out.

For you and me, Im most concerned with getting good forcing and enough qpf.  Soundings are good enough if we get decent lift, but if were scrapping out like  0.3" qpf over 12 hours like the 18z euro, it's not gonna cut it.

I'm not far off your thoughts though around here, been thinking 3-6". 

[Patrick-02540]

36 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Just dropped to 36 here. We'll see how much more it'll drop by morning

I just shot up from 34.3 to 35.1 in 30 minutes.  Hmmm...

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In this type of storm it really is. 
 

ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are. 

I think trying to draw a forecast map for CT is pretty much a worthless exercise in this setup...   The elevation changes over short distance alone will kill you... add in the other factors, such as mid-level temp chaos and I think it is just not a viable way to convey the uncertainty...

My course of action was to prepare a list of bullet points (15 of them) listing statements about how variable the conditions may be across the region from the shore to the Northwest Hills and discussing elevation factors, etc...   I'm over 1,100 feet at my house, but about 3 miles away it is only 200 to 300 feet...  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

For you and me, Im most concerned with getting good forcing and enough qpf.  Soundings are good enough if we get decent lift, but if were scrapping out like  0.3" qpf over 12 hours like the 18z euro, it's not gonna cut it.

I'm not far off your thoughts though around here, been thinking 3-6". 

I am banking on the lift getting here.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I think trying to draw a forecast map for CT is pretty much a worthless exercise in this setup...   The elevation changes over short distance alone will kill you... add in the other factors, such as mid-level temp chaos and I think it is just not a viable way to convey the uncertainty...

My course of action was to prepare a list of bullet points (15 of them) listing statements about how variable the conditions may be across the region from the shore to the Northwest Hills and discussing elevation factors, etc...   I'm over 1,100 feet at my house, but about 3 miles away it is only 200 to 300 feet...  

Are you able to post them here?

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-sunday-monday-low-to.html

As good as any I've seen... bust potential is big across the higher elevations of Litchfield CTY, western Hartford Cty, and northern Tolland & Windam counites...  almost no way to show the possible variations across the northern half of CT on any map.  I'm right on the Litchfield Cty border sitting at about 1,140' but a few miles away it 200 to 300' of elevation...????

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Ok, I had to stop watching at hour 40. Cause what in the hell is this? 00z HRRR. This shit is the dreams of a computer.

Why are you not showing the area you (and me) live in?

[Spanks45]

Impressive resolution on that map, circled mylocation, right in the snow death valley of Southbury...quite impressive

[wx2fish]

Nam going wild on qpf with the initial band 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Why are you not showing the area you (and me) live in?

Was highlighting the ridiculous output of the HRRR on the south coast of CT. Here's us FFIW. Would take zero stock in it.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Was highlighting the ridiculous output of the HRRR on the south coast of CT. Here's us FFIW. Would take zero stock in it.

Ah

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam going wild on qpf with the initial band 

Hopefully the 00z's will continue a trend of juicing up, cause the 18z suite was parched.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam going wild on qpf with the initial band 

That's thumpity dumpity defined

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

That's thumpity dumpity defined

Just sittin’ there thumpin’?

[ineedsnow]

NAM crushes here we take