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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can also recall times when I took them as gospel and they were too light. You keep a better personal inventory of this shit when you actually forecast...no offense intended at all...I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all.

No doubt, I feel like this is a storm where they may score though.

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Prismshine Productions
Prismshine Productions

Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

dryslot
dryslot

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

dendrite
dendrite

ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, NotSureWeather said:

It’s almost like weather forecasting is difficult.

In this type of storm it really is. 
 

ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are. 

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NotSureWeather

NotSureWeather

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In this type of storm it really is. 
 

ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are. 

Yeah I’m in New Bedford, not expecting anything.

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too 

Baseball @zone nation, 1pm tomorrow...should be an interesting drive if anything with the elevation changes from here to there

Hoping for a positive bust, but expecting mostly white rain here

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EMontpelierWhiteout

EMontpelierWhiteout

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, George001 said:

Perfect low track in late Jan and we can’t get enough goddamn cold air to snow. Can’t make this shit up. I understand that it’s not going to snow a ton every year, but winter should feel like winter. This shit is not winter.

Get used to it. Global trends are not your friend.  

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Baseball @zone nation, 1pm tomorrow...should be an interesting drive if anything with the elevation changes from here to there

Hoping for a positive bust, but expecting mostly white rain here

Ya they are about 450-500’ there . You go from sea level to 650’ in about 2-3 miles 

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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was conflicted.....the NARCAN maps are are so paltry....part of me wishes I had incorporated them and positive snow depth change more, but sometimes NARCAN  is too conservative. But this is the type of marginal situation where they may just sniff the terd out.

For you and me, Im most concerned with getting good forcing and enough qpf.  Soundings are good enough if we get decent lift, but if were scrapping out like  0.3" qpf over 12 hours like the 18z euro, it's not gonna cut it.

I'm not far off your thoughts though around here, been thinking 3-6". 

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In this type of storm it really is. 
 

ORH county above 600-700 feet will be pretty easy. They will snow and amounts will be mostly determined by QPF. Lower down though is a disaster to try and forecast and it’s even worse down in CT where you have to consider midlevel temps being what they are. 

I think trying to draw a forecast map for CT is pretty much a worthless exercise in this setup...   The elevation changes over short distance alone will kill you... add in the other factors, such as mid-level temp chaos and I think it is just not a viable way to convey the uncertainty...

My course of action was to prepare a list of bullet points (15 of them) listing statements about how variable the conditions may be across the region from the shore to the Northwest Hills and discussing elevation factors, etc...   I'm over 1,100 feet at my house, but about 3 miles away it is only 200 to 300 feet...  

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

For you and me, Im most concerned with getting good forcing and enough qpf.  Soundings are good enough if we get decent lift, but if were scrapping out like  0.3" qpf over 12 hours like the 18z euro, it's not gonna cut it.

I'm not far off your thoughts though around here, been thinking 3-6". 

I am banking on the lift getting here.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, FXWX said:

I think trying to draw a forecast map for CT is pretty much a worthless exercise in this setup...   The elevation changes over short distance alone will kill you... add in the other factors, such as mid-level temp chaos and I think it is just not a viable way to convey the uncertainty...

My course of action was to prepare a list of bullet points (15 of them) listing statements about how variable the conditions may be across the region from the shore to the Northwest Hills and discussing elevation factors, etc...   I'm over 1,100 feet at my house, but about 3 miles away it is only 200 to 300 feet...  

Are you able to post them here?

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-sunday-monday-low-to.html

FINAL CALL.png

As good as any I've seen... bust potential is big across the higher elevations of Litchfield CTY, western Hartford Cty, and northern Tolland & Windam counites...  almost no way to show the possible variations across the northern half of CT on any map.  I'm right on the Litchfield Cty border sitting at about 1,140' but a few miles away it 200 to 300' of elevation...????

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