Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Yeah can't see how that could possibly happen in this storm. You've got a fair amount of elevation, right?

1k 

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Yeah can't see how that could possibly happen in this storm. You've got a fair amount of elevation, right?

Just over 900’

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray has Precip starting  as rain tomorrow and continues . Hi res and GFS/ Euro has thump snow . Maybe they meet in the middle 

How is this euro thump snow in CT?

 

 

 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

I didn't expect 18z to amp up the front end thump down to the coast.. figured we were way to warm but maybe the rates are helping. 18z HERPES was decent

yes I know, "Don't do it'

 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

How is this euro thump snow in CT?

 

 

 

 

maybe not euro but some of the other hi res are showing some thumpage sometime between 14z-19z

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Just over 900’

Uh-oh, is someone fudging numbers? That's okay, if it's any indication of the listed verticals of ski resorts around here, you're allowed to make shit up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray has Precip starting  as rain tomorrow and continues . Hi res and GFS/ Euro has thump snow . Maybe they meet in the middle 

I could see the hills begin as snow that struggles to stick at first...those simulated RAD images are smoothed.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

How is this euro thump snow in CT?

 

 

 

 

That's thumping rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

44 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z a bit better for sure with the front end thump for SNE

@weathafellaits isothermal so you can’t just look and assume rain 

[JKEisMan]

What the hell is this ?

[ORH_wxman]

It’s almost totally isothermal at 0C so the ptype maps are snow even if 850 temps are technically above 0C. But it’s prob like 0.2C or something. It’s close. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, JKEisMan said:

What the hell is this ?

Some are saying thumping rain . So not sure 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

What the hell is this ?

A legacy model that runs off vibes.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too 

[dryslot]

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

[JKEisMan]

Just now, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

A legacy model that runs off vibes.

Hrrr looking similar…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, dryslot said:

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

It’s isothermal on euro wb shows it 

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too 

Would be nice to see positive bust for once

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s isothermal on euro wb shows it 

925mb was marginal too on SV, I don't have access to WB

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Hrrr looking similar…

Well, it's not showing quite that much, lol. And the HRRR can be questionable at times too. Although it's shown the thump for quite a few runs now.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

925mb was marginal too on SV, I don't have access to WB

It’s all isothermal lol so close 

[Massplow]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-sunday-monday-low-to.html

How confident are you in your amounts in the Foxboro area? Comparing to the box map they have close to nothing

[tavwtby]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s almost totally isothermal at 0C so the ptype maps are snow even if 850 temps are technically above 0C. But it’s prob like 0.2C or something. It’s close. 
 

 

what's that like 1.5- 2"/hr rates for a few hours, if the thermals cooperate, otherwise we waste the thump on white rain or plain rain

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s all isothermal lol so close 

Yup, Real close.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s all isothermal lol so close 

So close. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Massplow said:

How confident are you in your amounts in the Foxboro area? Comparing to the box map they have close to nothing

It's a very tough call...real PITA storm. I am banking on that area stealing a couple to a few inches based on the slight elevation and being far enough south to get the good lift. Will I be surprised if they get next to nothing?

No.

[George001]

If I actually get 7 inches I’ll eat my socks. You cannot snow without cold air.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

If I actually get 7 inches I’ll eat my socks. You cannot snow without cold air.

You are exactly the type of person that focuses on the highest number...look at the arial coverage of that snowfall range....what a moronic post.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are exactly the type of person that focuses on the highest number...look at the arial coverage of that snowfall range....what a moronic post.

It’s going to be 35-36, I’m not getting 4 either. I’m going to double down on that post…. I’ll eat my socks if I get over 4 inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 4-7" raps around from the CT RV, through the hills of N CT and RI and into interior MA....you tell me who you think has a the best shot at the upper end of that range?