Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[HinghamBoss]

How helpful are the HREF snowfall products?  Know they are an ensemble of other models.

trend seems a bit snowier around these parts, but not sure if that is a function of the models that drive the output (eg HRRR).

[UnitedWx]

Haven't had time to get caught up on this System since very early this morning one thing I've noticed here in Westfield just that it was 42 degrees back at 10:30 am and it's down to 38.5 now

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

How helpful are the HREF snowfall products?  Know they are an ensemble of other models.

trend seems a bit snowier around these parts, but not sure if that is a function of the models that drive the output (eg HRRR).

Don’t buy it. Probably HRRR driven 

[Modfan2]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nam Mos is 4 mthfers here

Elevation helps, I will be lucky to see 2”

[forkyfork]

classic spring slopper

[weathafella]

The elephant in the room:  temperatures are well above normal in NNE to the Canadian border.  Not what sne wants to see the day before a storm.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The elephant in the room:  temperatures are well above normal in NNE to the Canadian border.  Not what sne wants to see the day before a storm.

Yup, this is mostly rain for most outside of the hilly terrain. Oh well. The woman and I are heading out soon for some drinks and some dinner…life goes on. 

[CoastalWx]

18z nam is better Monday morning in central and eastern areas.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The elephant in the room:  temperatures are well above normal in NNE to the Canadian border.  Not what sne wants to see the day before a storm.

I think That was modeled well . We needed rates for first 1/2 of tubs anyway . This thing just never seems to organize well anymore . Many runs had a 6 hour period of .5+ QPF after 0z for areas N of pike into SNH . That appears gone as does the CCB so lol ..we take em down and see if this reverses 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z nam is better Monday morning in central and eastern areas.

Actually gets a hint of a CCB going. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually gets a hint of a CCB going. 

Yeah nothing crazy, but verbatim some better banding. 

[WinterWolf]

Can the NAM lead the way with this thing? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z nam is better Monday morning in central and eastern areas.

Nam is 1” QPF pike south 

.5 QPF line rides NH/Ma border 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam is 1” QPF pike south 

.5 QPF line rides NH/Ma border 

How much if that 1” is frozen…I wonder? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How much if that 1” is frozen…I wonder? 

I think that’s a good question lol 

Head to Norfolk 

[Damage In Tolland]

How’s thump in CT?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’s thump in CT?

Strong thump … of rain? Nowcast IMO I could see 0/3/6 in your area. Would give 33% chance of each verifying. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2

same trend 

CT/RI do well (away from immediate coast )

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2

same trend 

CT/RI do well 

That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done 

Gonna be close in the hills down there 

[tamarack]

Forecast has been edging things north over the past 2 days.  GYX' POP from the most recent 3 forecast periods here went from 30% to 50%, now 70%.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gonna be close in the hills down there 

If it was 2 degrees colder man…. Some nearby towns have 800-1000’ elevations I wonder if they can sneak out a miracle. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Forecast has been edging things north over the past 2 days.  GYX' POP from the most recent 3 forecast periods here went from 30% to 50%, now 70%.

They trend looks done since 12z 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2

same trend 

CT/RI do well (away from immediate coast )

Some solid trends today as Messenger shuffle started 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Strong thump … of rain? Nowcast IMO I could see 0/3/6 in your area. Would give 33% chance of each verifying. 

I think you’ll be adjusting that map south 

[H2Otown_WX]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If it was 2 degrees colder man…. Some nearby towns have 800-1000’ elevations I wonder if they can sneak out a miracle. 

Seems like elevation won't matter unless you're north of HFD. Euro 850s are toasty most of the event except the mid level stuff that develops which I'm guessing is overdone.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think you’ll be adjusting that map south 

Just adjusted it north. But it’s a zero confidence forecast.  If we get some more shuffles and a trend that’s our friend then I’ll adjust south. 

[H2Otown_WX]

Interesting sounding here from the 18z NAM. I don't think we'll quite get it done but it's close:

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just adjusted it north. But it’s a zero confidence forecast.  If we get some more shuffles and a trend that’s our friend then I’ll adjust south. 

I think 3-6” is a good forecast for anyone above 700-800 feet in the state . There also could be 1-3” Monday in addition statewide 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think 3-6” is a good forecast for anyone above 700-800 feet in the state . There also could be 1-3” Monday in addition statewide 

Everything is trending north . Enjoy 1-3.