Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The positive snow depth numbers in these marginal events are not impressive.

GFS

NAM

 

Some folks are absolutely whistling by the graveyard with this event. Unless you are perched on a hilltop, I’d keep expectations pretty subdued 

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes. I wasn’t saying WAA always is overdone, just more often than CCB stuff. Front end thumps can be awesome…but models will sometimes overdo it. 
 

12/16/07 is often our favorite WAA event to talk about around here. 

Best front end thump I ever experienced was in the 2007 Valentines storm. 10” in 3 hours of perfect dendrites. Snowshoed in it. Amazing memory. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some folks are absolutely whistling by the graveyard with this event. Unless you are perched on a hilltop, I’d keep expectations pretty subdued 

Trash AWT since Monday. Onto salvaging some semblance of a season in Feb. I’m optimistic but I’ve peppered my room with a safety net of pessimistic expectations. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12z HREF mean and max show the difference for most if Part 1 blows or blows up 

The mean is weak sauce and 1-2 for N CT and 2-4 for Berks and 1-2 N of pike with exception of SE NH as at this point run only goes to 0z Monday 

the max shows a big 4-6 stripe for Central CT across  center RI and then a bit less north to you get N of Ma pike and basically hits Berks and ORH and W Middlesex hard 6-8 thru late Sunday eve

[HoarfrostHubb]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Some folks are absolutely whistling by the graveyard with this event. Unless you are perched on a hilltop, I’d keep expectations pretty subdued 

Won’t be a big event even here. But will be a nice way to finish January.  Good month for totals although not much to show for it 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12z HREF mean has 6”+ for the watch areas 

And 4-6” from Fenway and a few miles south all the way back to nearly parallel MA/CT border 

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12z HREF mean has 6”+ for the watch areas 

And 4-6” from Fenway and a few miles south all the way back to nearly parallel MA/CT border 

I'm on the southern edge of the watch area, not sure if I get that, I don't like these setups for my area.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

I'm on the southern edge of the watch area, not sure if I get that, I don't like these setups for my area.

Your at like 600’ or so right?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I will be impressed if any map remotely gets this correct 

[Kitz Craver]

While still not the sexiest output the NAM 3K kuchie snowfall accumulation has definitely crept south compared to prior runs for those of us in the tropics 

[Ginx snewx]

Nam Mos is 4 mthfers here

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This system has the disappointment potential of a late March storm.  

Big difference is the March disappointment is quickly replaced with spring weather and lawn thread.  Here we get 6 weeks of additional meh winter.

[DavisStraight]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your at like 600’ or so right?

700

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

700

You should do pretty well 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You should do pretty well 

Man can we thump like a NAM

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man can we thump like a NAM

Euro too . We’ll see 

[WinterWolf]

37 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Big difference is the March disappointment is quickly replaced with spring weather and lawn thread.  Here we get 6 weeks of additional meh winter.

Where do you live? Late March and April suck in SNE way more often than not. 
 

And at this point, it’s closer to 7 plus weeks before spring walks in on 3/22. 

[NorEastermass128]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Where do you live? Late March and April suck in SNE way more often than not. 
 

And at this point, it’s closer to 7 plus weeks before spring walks in on 3/22. 

Instances March sun and light wind are to be treasured after 36F cloudy/dank weeks at a time in mid winter. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is thumpy in CT but man, that’s so close on the thermals. Could legit see 4” of wet cement or rain/white rain from that. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is thumpy in CT but man, that’s so close on the thermals. Could legit see 4” of wet cement or rain/white rain from that. 

Whole state?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Whole state?

I think you’d need to be north of the Merritt to have a shot. North of HFD even better. But it’s definitely going to be all about the rates/lift. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is thumpy in CT but man, that’s so close on the thermals. Could legit see 4” of wet cement or rain/white rain from that. 

The way things have gone the last couple years…I’ll expect the white rain.  And if we thump hard, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is thumpy in CT but man, that’s so close on the thermals. Could legit see 4” of wet cement or rain/white rain from that. 

Love the april airmass in peak winter climo. Every thermal decimal matters. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Euro is flaccid outside of isothermal WAA thump for S and SW areas of SNE 

tracked for days and it craps out on QPF couple days  and is basically shreddy and weak over 18 hrs for Ne mass to Ash . Was solid inch for a while now it’s like .7 with no 3 hour period above .20

them are the breaks It appears 

Im hoping folks in CT and RI score on WAA thump 

[SouthCoastMA]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is thumpy in CT but man, that’s so close on the thermals. Could legit see 4” of wet cement or rain/white rain from that. 

Anything notable on the backend Monday, or just wintry appeal type stuff on the Euro?

[dendrite]

Yeah…kind of a lackluster run.

[RDRY]

Winter Storm Watch definitely going to become WWA in the Berks. Yet another system that can't get its act together.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Anything notable on the backend Monday, or just wintry appeal type stuff on the Euro?

Meh. Not impressed. Euro hasn’t had a good CCB in several runs now. Synoptically with the way the lows track, you’d think someone would do well between CNE and the pike for a while before the whole thing collapses SE but it’s just showing light precip in that zone. 
 

The conveyor circulations just never get linked up on this storm very well and I think it’s causing a lot of headaches on these solutions. I don’t know how real it is, but it’s a red flag for sure. 

[WinterWolf]

Ya, this thing isn’t anything much imo…can’t seem to get organized.  Hoping it’s in and out quick and we move on to February, and see how we can mess that up lol.  

[Childude645]

Trying to get an idea of winds on Monday, unsure if boats will be cancelled to the islands.


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