Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

North ticks hurting but a thump well down in to CT that wasn’t there in prior runs, I’m confused 

Yeah the thump is the way for CT to do well. I’d be skeptical until you see the whites of their eyes, but it’s been trending better. Need rates to go isothermal. 

[ORH_wxman]

The CCB in general just doesn’t look that good anywhere right now on a consistent basis. There’s been runs where it does but many where it doesn’t. So I think I’m remaining conservative until that part is ironed out. 

[Torch Tiger]

Wait someone said this is a pike-south event?  Was that incorrect???

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The CCB in general just doesn’t look that good anywhere right now on a consistent basis. There’s been runs where it does but many where it doesn’t. So I think I’m remaining conservative until that part is ironed out. 

So generally both parts look shaky 

why is WAA so difficult for models to handle well 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So generally both parts look shaky 

why is WAA so difficult for models to handle well 

 

Because the systems bringing it are trash?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Because the systems bringing it are trash?

I mean ..there was a ferocious WAA Thump in NW NJ S interior NY and Extreme west CT a couple weeks ago but models always seem to struggle with it . That system sure wasn’t crap . 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So generally both parts look shaky 

why is WAA so difficult for models to handle well 

 

There’s a lot of bust potential in this system. Both directions too…though the downside bust potential is greater imho. But there’s also some scenarios where I could see a foot-plus over interior if things work out well. 

[NotSureWeather]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wait someone said this is a pike-south event?  Was that incorrect???

Maybe 7 days ago, when we still had hope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I used the NAM for that last SWFE event and the thermal fields were perfect. That said, I am not expecting a ton of snow here from this system...too many flags.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a lot of bust potential in this system. Both directions too…though the downside bust potential is greater imho. But there’s also some scenarios where I could see a foot-plus over interior if things work out well. 

Yup 

I can’t even imagine having to put out a forecast . Given that I believe there is usually more forgiveness overdoing accumulation (as long as at least advisory falls ) then saying 2-4” and people getting 8” with outages lol . Still the smart lean seems conservative for now given uncertainty’s over both parts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yup 

I can’t even imagine having to put out a forecast . Given that I believe  is usually more forgiveness overdoing accumulation (as long as at least advisory falls ) then saying 2-4” and people getting 8” with outages lol

I will issue tonight...wife and 3 kids are back, so need to clean my son's rhea off of my arm and nap before dealing with the Sunday-Monday rhea. 

[dendrite]

Better on the front end in SNE on the ICON 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Better on the front end in SNE on the ICON 

Do you have any gut feeling on this system 

what’s the 12z KDENDY say 

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure where the idea of the NAM having a cold bias comes from...

It’s usually the one that puts the damper on excitement because it sees warm layers that others don’t.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Better on the front end in SNE on the ICON 

Phew..

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

It’s usually the one that puts the damper on excitement because it sees warm layers that others don’t.

Right....assuming its placement of synoptic features are right, which is dubious unless you know to only utilize it at close range in warm air advection scenarios. Its a great tool if used correctly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phew..

Sarcasm, @The 4 Seasons

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....assuming its placement of synoptic features are right, which is dubious unless you know to only utilize it at close range in warm air advection scenarios. Its a great tool if used correctly. 

Brian often pops my balloon with the nam 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Brian often pops my cherry with the golden wand

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Oh boy haha 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Beware the warm tongue.  In this case, the tongue is bigger than Gene Simmon’s

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know what they say in NH. Live free or poke. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Do you have any gut feeling on this system 

what’s the 12z KDENDY say 

Has a higher terrain, rt2-north jack look to it. Basically where the euro has the track of the H7 low and just north of it…then adjust for elevation/coastal temp influence.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Beware the warm tongue.  In this case, the tongue is bigger than Gene Simmon’s

Doesn’t appear so . 12k nam says not much tongue action in gives front end thump to areas south of pike . That would seem to contrast things . 12k nam would pick up a big tongue , no? Just need big rates bc the airmass is garbage Sunday 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You know what they say in NH. Live free or poke. 

"Oh Mark...get the "golden NAM" ready while I pour some wine"...

[ORH_wxman]

I do think some of the CCB stuff could be undermodeled…esp Monday morning. Typically, models biases (and I believe this is still generally true even now in my experience) tend to overdo the WAA stuff and underdo the CCB stuff. But we’ll see. This is a weird system with all sorts of issues and there’s prob going to be a lot of nowcasting. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I do think some of the CCB stuff could be undermodeled…esp Monday morning. Typically, models biases (and I believe this is still generally true even now in my experience) tend to overdo the WAA stuff and underdo the CCB stuff. But we’ll see. This is a weird system with all sorts of issues and there’s prob going to be a lot of nowcasting. 

Reggie snows into Monday evening here. Pretty widespread light snows into Monday aftn all over. 850s drop too so might be a decent band or two. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I do think some of the CCB stuff could be undermodeled…esp Monday morning. Typically, models biases (and I believe this is still generally true even now in my experience) tend to overdo the WAA stuff and underdo the CCB stuff. But we’ll see. This is a weird system with all sorts of issues and there’s prob going to be a lot of nowcasting. 

I thought the WAA was more impressive in Jan 7th deal...it was immense. One of the more impressive WAA displays I have witnessed. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Reggie snows into Monday evening here. Pretty widespread light snows into Monday aftn all over. 850s drop too so might be a decent band or two. 

There’s usually good snow growth in the CCB stuff too because you are saturated well into the column whereas the WAA stuff can dryslot pretty quickly above 600-700mb. 
 

So I could see a lot of premature bust calls and then by Monday evening some areas will be thinking “oh I got another 3” today so it salvaged the storm to respectable”

[moneypitmike]

I’ve got my sights on 1-4.