Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Oh wow, just seeing the 06z 3km NAM. I know I was making fun of you yesterday 3km NAM, but if you get that 17" spot over my head to drop as modeled all will be forgiven forever. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Steady as she goes here.  

The correctional vector points to Hubbardston.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Zero Chance 

This is what I would call a non-zero chance. Just in the same way there's a non-zero chance I will start taking the 3km NAM seriously. 

[George001]

I’m skeptical of the maps giving me 5-6 inches of snow. I’m taking the under on that given how warm it is.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For a clear example of this , folks just need to look at the 6z and 12z runs of the HRRR (both have extended hours )

Go to reflectivity and loop for the day Sunday 

6z run was a massive WAA push that wasn’t shredded and was longer lasting and expansive even to the North  , The result was CT and RI were buried on Thump and really everyone did well

12z run was a weaker disjointed WAA push and it didn’t really amount to anything other than 1-2” in hills of CT and nada really north of Union 

In between those extremes would be the 6z euro solid several hour thump but not as expansive and confined to CT and Later into Eve RI

Yeah I’m not expecting much on the thump here so I’m staying fairly conservative. If guidance becomes more unanimous for a good thump then I’ll be more bullish on 6”+ here. 

[CoastalWx]

Not a bad look on hrrr here. Looks like snow lingers for awhile Monday. 

[CoastalWx]

ORH hills hammered.

[jbenedet]

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well well well. I actually agree with you on this one.

Damn I better reconsider my thoughts then….

 

[Kitz Craver]

I’ve felt solidly out of this one until these most recent runs, ACTATT perhaps trending a bit snowier?

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

ORH hills hammered.

Scorpion bowls on Winter Hill….

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The correctional vector points to Hubbardston.

We are attenuating 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scorpion bowls on Winter Hill….

Will your mom let us work from the house while sipping a nice Bourbon?

[GCWarrior]

47 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

6z EURO Kuchie

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I approve of that map! 

[ORH_wxman]

12z NAM trying for isothermal paste bomb for several hours on the WAA thump well down into CT. That’s gonna be interesting to watch. The soundings are legit isothermal right near 0C. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not sure where the idea of the NAM having a cold bias comes from...

[CoastalWx]

3k nam is a torch to ORH and even NE Ma. Rain for a time.

[tavwtby]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very difficult forecast for the hills south of I90. If the colder trends are real then you can take em up . But I don’t have a strong feeling either way . Before 12z.. I still think 3-6” for this area . I guess it all depends on the first thump tomorrow and if that’s real

I'm with you here, I think we struggle to hit 4 in this area, unless the cold cools more for the thump because we ain't seeing any CCB snows back here so we rely on thump and maybe some crumbs on the backside, going 3-5 here

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z NAM trying for isothermal paste bomb for several hours on the WAA thump well down into CT. That’s gonna be interesting to watch. The soundings are legit isothermal right near 0C. 

hoping that verifies

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure where the idea of the NAM having a cold bias comes from...

Just paying attention to the last storm, and the one before that, and the one before that and…..

Oh yea… and we are already at the NAM’s progged highs for today…

[CoastalWx]

NAMs were kind of meh outside the “thump”.

[CoastalWx]

Ticks north evident and hurting. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAMs were kind of meh outside the “thump”.

CCB has looked pretty flaccid since the 06z euro came out. I guess hrrr was decent but that is clown range for that model. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

More garbage for NE mass on 12z nam kuch 3-4”

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ticks north evident and hurting. 

12km looked like it ticked south. Barely gets any decent QPF north of MHT…but 3k def went north a bit. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAMs were kind of meh outside the “thump”.

It was utter garbage 

take em down for NE mass 

 further from WAA and weaker CCB trends across guidance 

maybe something changes 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Just paying attention to the last storm, and the one before that, and the one before that and…..

Oh yea… and we are already at the NAM’s progged highs….

This one still missing?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12km looked like it ticked south. Barely gets any decent QPF north of MHT…but 3k def went north a bit. 

Yeah referencing 3K. That’s not far from ACK. Hopefully too amped.

[Kitz Craver]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ticks north evident and hurting. 

North ticks hurting but a thump well down in to CT that wasn’t there in prior runs, I’m confused 

[NorEastermass128]

Interior looks decent for a good serving of mashed potatoes. Us coastal dwellers probably need to wait a while longer. Maybe an inch or three here Monday, enough to be a nuisance. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

North ticks hurting but a thump well down in to CT that wasn’t there in prior runs, I’m confused 

Well yea there’s pros and cons. It would help some areas get a few slushy inches, but once that goes by mid levels are torched. So that ruins it for a lot of the storm near and south of the pike.