Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Snowcrazed71]

15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

How much rain will we see here in CT?

Just saying also Connecticut we'll see about inch of rain. Inland could get an inch or so tomorrow morning, then heavy rain. Then they're calling for it to turn back to snow showers tomorrow night until Monday morning with another coating to an inch maybe except for the highest hills in the northwest of Connecticut. This is not a snow event for most of Connecticut. Not at this point

[kdxken]

 

[moneypitmike]

I am having visions of the events where we go to bed anticipating a changeover to snow and getting up in the morning to see 1/2' of snow on the grass and wet roads.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I am having visions of the events where we go to bed with the anticipating a changeover to snow and getting up in the morning to see 1/2' of snow on the grass and wet roads.

I’d say it’s possible IF the euro warms more at 925 during the 8pm-3am time frame when it has most precip falling . I would not favor that . 
 

I think the usual wobbles inside last 30 -36 hours need to be watched closely 

[ORH_wxman]

Front end thump will have a say in accums…if we can pound S/S+ for 3-4 hours late tomorrow before the CCB organizes, then we’d be much more likely to achieve 6-10 in the 495 belt. If it fizzles like the Euro shows and we just have to wait for CCB, then I’d go more like 3-6 here. 
 

[Kitz Craver]

I’m going with a winning HRRR/NAM combo to save CT, LOL. At least we get to see some pretty clown paint.

[codfishsnowman]

Sounds like a cold rain storm down here, maybe a coating for Monday morning. What luck at prime climo and great track lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Still 4-8 5–10 here.  It might start warm though.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Admitting defeat to @qg_omega?

I'm not sure how you arrive at that.....

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure how you arrive at that.....

Lots of beer with him lately

[CoastalWx]

Box map looks pretty good at first glance. And I agree with Will, that front and thump is going to dictate the snowfall for a lot of us, especially those that might be borderline.
 

maybe an inch or two when it flips back to snow around these pots Monday.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

No posts of The euro clowns at 6z

Worst kuchie clown map for NE Mass I’ve seen as most of CT does better 

gives most of CT 3-5 by 0z and PVD 3-4” by 3z . Crumbs for NE mass .

So def colder and  for S SNE on WAA thump which is primarily union CT south 

Orh hills and monads catch up a little 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No posts of The euro clowns at 6z

Worst kicker clown map for NE Mass I’ve seen as most of CT does better 

Euro wasn’t great in SNE.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No posts of The euro clowns at 6z

Worst kuchie clown map for NE Mass I’ve seen as most of CT does better 

gives most of CT 3-5 by 0z and PVD 3-4” by 3z . Crumbs for NE mass .

So def colder and  for S SNE on WAA thump which is primarily union CT south 

 

We embrace with open arms.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro wasn’t great in SNE.

Was much better WAA thump colder for CT into PVD

[Prismshine Productions]

6z EURO Kuchie

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Very difficult forecast for the hills south of I90. If the colder trends are real then you can take em up . But I don’t have a strong feeling either way . Before 12z.. I still think 3-6” for this area . I guess it all depends on the first thump tomorrow and if that’s real

[Spanks45]

Just from an observation stand point for this area(swct)...if the airmass that is currently outside is what we have to work with for most of our storm tomorrow, I can see how there will be little to any snow around here. Feels like an late March morning put there, birds are sing away too. Hopefully I will be eating these words tomorrow...

[HinghamBoss]

3K NAM and HRRR are both interesting in these parts.  Shows a much stronger push on front and back ends.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

3K NAM and HRRR are both interesting in these parts.  Shows a much stronger push on front and back ends.

There’s a chance it could linger for awhile in PYM county Monday. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Just from an observation stand point for this area(swct)...if the airmass that is currently outside is what we have to work with for most of our storm tomorrow, I can see how there will be little to any snow around here. Feels like an late March morning put there, birds are sing away too. Hopefully I will be eating these words tomorrow...

Antecedent conditions will definitely impact the front end. Euro has a nice thump maybe goes isothermal.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Favorable trends for my neck of the woods this morning. Starting to think there's a real chance I might be able to shimmy my way up to 10" with some east flow and better than expected ratios. It will take all the weenie magic I have I reckon. 

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very difficult forecast for the hills south of I90. If the colder trends are real then you can take em up . But I don’t have a strong feeling either way . Before 12z.. I still think 3-6” for this area . I guess it all depends on the first thump tomorrow and if that’s real

I hope you're right. Kev. If anybody has a better chance of seeing accumulating snow it would be you and the hills in Northwest Connecticut. I'm up about 500 ft but I'm not sure that's going to do it where I am. I'm thinking about an inch or so for me. Maybe a little tomorrow morning then rain and then a little bit more tomorrow night until Monday morning. Put a surprise would be nice. I'm really looking more forward to the following week when things really get rolling

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Antecedent conditions will definitely impact the front end. Euro has a nice thump maybe goes isothermal.

I would be ok with a 34⁰ snowfall....would be a nice surprise, a nice March snowfall in the heart of winter

[jbenedet]

I believe best chance for accums is Monday. 

NAM is warm verbatim and that’s with a cold bias.

These are dews folks; not surface temps….They are above freezing throughout the front end thump, and I don’t see this eroding quickly with 30 dews in Ontario and QC and a 1000 mb low…

Start time is also late morning, strongest push is 12 -3 pm for the front end thump. Normally wouldn’t mean much in late Jan, but every fractional degree counts with such warm BL temps and very limited dynamics.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Favorable trends for my neck of the woods this morning. Starting to think there's a real chance I might be able to shimmy my way up to 10" with some east flow and better than expected ratios. It will take all the weenie magic I have I reckon. 

You are in a good spot in general.  Good elevation, very rural and close enough to civilization.  Great spot for a snow weenie.  Generally true for this part of NH west of 93 and either side of 89.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I believe best chance for accums is Monday. 

NAM is warm verbatim and that’s with a cold bias.

These are dews….They are above freezing during the front end thump, and I don’t see this eroding quickly with 30 dews in Ontario and QC and a 1000 mb low…

 

Well well well. I actually agree with you on this one.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I would be ok with a 34⁰ snowfall....would be a nice surprise, a nice March snowfall in the heart of winter

My location.  Do the humpitity thumpity dance.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Steady as she goes here.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Front end thump will have a say in accums…if we can pound S/S+ for 3-4 hours late tomorrow before the CCB organizes, then we’d be much more likely to achieve 6-10 in the 495 belt. If it fizzles like the Euro shows and we just have to wait for CCB, then I’d go more like 3-6 here. 
 

For a clear example of this , folks just need to look at the 6z and 12z runs of the HRRR (both have extended hours )

Go to reflectivity and loop for the day Sunday 

6z run was a massive WAA push that wasn’t shredded and was longer lasting and expansive even to the North  , The result was CT and RI were buried on Thump and really everyone did well

12z run was a weaker disjointed WAA push and it didn’t really amount to anything other than 1-2” in hills of CT and nada really north of Union 

In between those extremes would be the 6z euro solid several hour thump but not as expansive and confined to CT and Later into Eve RI