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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Prismshine Productions
Prismshine Productions

Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

dryslot
dryslot

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

dendrite
dendrite

ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

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ChangeofSeasonsWX

ChangeofSeasonsWX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Not necessarily,  we had many a winter where good size storms would come through as pouring rain, and then cold as soon as the storm departed. SO many times the weather Channel 7 day had snow, and you'd slowly watch the forecast maps morph to rain as the storm approached. 

So when do you think things will finally change back to snowy for us? I mean, even the 80s had some big snowstorms so something has to break right eventually, no? Maybe have to wait until next season?

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Weird that hrrr and gfs Continue to be so cold and thumpy. Hrrr hits nyc metro hard lol

I need to see that tomorrow to take em up. It all just seems so marginal to me. If we had a colder 925 & surface profile I’d be on board. Euro weird banding has me a little concerned too. 

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I need to see that tomorrow to take em up. It all just seems so marginal to me. If we had a colder 925 & surface profile I’d be on board. Euro weird banding has me a little concerned too. 

I mean if we hadn't just endured last year and this year so far, I would be just a tad excited looking at the GFS and HRRR...but right now I just assume they are both wrong and take the warmest, least snowy model

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 

HRRR and GFS at 18z Sunday. Maybe a little better in the preceding hours with better lift but man the lower levels are marginal verbatim. 

vAHMt4V.png
 

bowSAJg.png

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tavwtby

tavwtby

Posted
Posted

precip better on the NAM but still marginal temps, hope the cold flows down quick or we'll waste the thump on ptype issues, antecedent airmass is meh, but gotta say it's better than was modeled, was supposed to be in the upper 40low 50s today, never got above 35 here today, was 43 at BDL earlier at work though

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I need 9 to get to 24" on the month...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I don’t think we’re getting there unless we can pull a powder on paste deformation band in the second part of the storm.
9” would get me over 30” for the season though.  That would be an on or above average winter pace for the upper valley: 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 

Yup, the HRRR is prone to that.  3KM NAM too.

This look is wet, low-ratio snow or even white rain with the dark blues.

But radar p-types don’t mean or imply anything about accumulations.  Just guessing there.

IMG_7872.thumb.png.ded1064d8026a7197daa04781169c231.png

 

 

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