Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Currently thinking C-2 coastal CT, 1-3 interior southern CT (mostly 2-3), 2-4 low elevation northern CT (mostly 3-4), and 3-6 (mostly 5-6) for Kev land and the NW hills. Weird that hrrr and gfs Continue to be so cold and thumpy. Hrrr hits nyc metro hard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: Not necessarily, we had many a winter where good size storms would come through as pouring rain, and then cold as soon as the storm departed. SO many times the weather Channel 7 day had snow, and you'd slowly watch the forecast maps morph to rain as the storm approached. So when do you think things will finally change back to snowy for us? I mean, even the 80s had some big snowstorms so something has to break right eventually, no? Maybe have to wait until next season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 HRRR lol, PF’s baby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Weird that hrrr and gfs Continue to be so cold and thumpy. Hrrr hits nyc metro hard lol I need to see that tomorrow to take em up. It all just seems so marginal to me. If we had a colder 925 & surface profile I’d be on board. Euro weird banding has me a little concerned too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I need to see that tomorrow to take em up. It all just seems so marginal to me. If we had a colder 925 & surface profile I’d be on board. Euro weird banding has me a little concerned too. I mean if we hadn't just endured last year and this year so far, I would be just a tad excited looking at the GFS and HRRR...but right now I just assume they are both wrong and take the warmest, least snowy model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 B R U HSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Now precip is back, definitely feedback issuesSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. HRRR and GFS at 18z Sunday. Maybe a little better in the preceding hours with better lift but man the lower levels are marginal verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 NAM coming in j u i c e dSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. Noticed that over here with today's system. Good callout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: NAM coming in j u i c e d Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk This could end up a decent event for us. I’m on the 6-8” train for G’field to Bratt corridor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 This could end up a decent event for us. I’m on the 6-8” train for G’field to Bratt corridor. I need 9 to get to 24" on the month...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 precip better on the NAM but still marginal temps, hope the cold flows down quick or we'll waste the thump on ptype issues, antecedent airmass is meh, but gotta say it's better than was modeled, was supposed to be in the upper 40low 50s today, never got above 35 here today, was 43 at BDL earlier at work though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Nam is kind of a mess. These weird QPF blobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Nam with a good nod towards the thump idea.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: I need 9 to get to 24" on the month... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I don’t think we’re getting there unless we can pull a powder on paste deformation band in the second part of the storm. 9” would get me over 30” for the season though. That would be an on or above average winter pace for the upper valley: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam is kind of a mess. These weird QPF blobs. 3hr qpf looks so weird. 3k looks more solid again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: HRRR is really marginal down there. Watch out with the ptype intensity maps too because it will simulate very high reflectivities with wet snow/white rain. It’s painting 40dbz snow in spots with 34-36° 2m temps. Yup, the HRRR is prone to that. 3KM NAM too. This look is wet, low-ratio snow or even white rain with the dark blues. But radar p-types don’t mean or imply anything about accumulations. Just guessing there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 wtf is that on the nam? I’ve never seen those blobs before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, wx2fish said: 3hr qpf looks so weird. 3k looks more solid again It looks elevation oriented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, wx2fish said: 3hr qpf looks so weird. 3k looks more solid again So weird lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It looks elevation oriented. It has them all over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, dendrite said: 3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA. 3k is nice NOP, toaster bath SOP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA. Would it shock folks if this S stream tickles more north , if confluence allows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA. Shocked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Shocked. We’ve moved on here. Hoping it’s good enough Monday somewhere in Ma that the governor calls for a day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Nice 3K 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nice 3K That would prob be enough to get state employees a day off Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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