Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

40 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s amazing how bad Far southern CT has been doing for years . Single digit

What do you average …28-30”? 

I’m 15 miles from the shore with 600’ elevation. Average between 40-50” based on Uptons climo maps. The extra 10” comes from my elevation. At my location 2000-2020 I averaged 55” during the weenie times. But the past 6 years my seasonal average is a meager 30”  .. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Pfff’ W MA was doing that every two weeks last summer.  

I was too at some points haha. 
 

Stein will be brutal this summer.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pretty much every piece of guidance today gives me no work Monday.  

Schools are closed from Fitchburg to Greenfield to North Adams on Monday.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Yeah it's crazy how we have had so much precipitation and yet so little of it has fallen as snow. The 1980s were dry but that's pretty much the only difference when it comes down to results. Maybe the 2030s change back to snowy again like the 90s did?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was too at some points haha. 
 

Stein will be brutal this summer.

I hope so! 

[ORH_wxman]

44 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I see 40-50% probs for 8” Or greater For N Orh county into Monads and over to edge of Nashua (WPC 48 hour map ending Monday eve)

like watching those trends 

ORH to AFN corridor is safest for warning snow along with Berkshires. Prob a little north too but you gotta worry about QPF diminishing once you start getting further up into monads and past Mitch’s area in S VT…though they could make up for it with good ratios…esp higher terrain. 
 

Next area is Ray down to 495 in east-central MA corridor. As long as precip rates don’t crap out, this area should do fairly well too. But not as safe as higher terrain just west. 
 

Then next area is like Kevin over to N RI to 128 belt up to sea coast Nh. Different reasons for uncertainty in those areas (Kevin it’s midlevel temps and 128 to seacoast it’s BL)

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

That's still not enough to close schools .

6” of snow overnight in semi-rural areas is definitely enough to close schools. 
School buses aren’t exactly Unimogs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH to AFN corridor is safest for warning snow along with Berkshires. Prob a little north too but you gotta worry about QPF diminishing once you start getting further up into monads and past Mitch’s area in S VT…though they could make up for it with good ratios…esp higher terrain. 
 

Next area is Ray down to 495 in east-central MA corridor. As long as precip rates don’t crap out, this area should do fairly well too. But not as safe as higher terrain just west. 
 

Then next area is like Kevin over to N RI to 128 belt up to sea coast Nh. Different reasons for uncertainty in those areas (Kevin it’s midlevel temps and 128 to seacoast it’s BL)

At this very early juncture .. 3-6” in your forecast ?

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’m 15 miles from the shore with 600’ elevation. Average between 40-50” based on Uptons climo maps. The extra 10” comes from my elevation. At my location 2000-2020 I averaged 55” during the weenie times. But the past 6 years my seasonal average is a meager 30”  .. 

yeah the screw zone crown is officially shifting from Ray down into S CT now. Esp with Ray’s area cleaning up relatively speaking this year (and that looks to continue in this storm) Maybe Scooter coming at runner-up for screwjie but his struggles are more recent since they had 1/29/22. S CT has really been garbage since Feb 2021. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

At this very early juncture .. 3-6” in your forecast ?

Yeah that seems decent. I think even on bad solutions you’ll limp to 2-3” of crapola but you have some upside if you can stay cold enough aloft. Your area is pretty tough. If I was forecasting still for Union I’d be telling the dude “yeah you are probably gonna need plows but it could be 2-3” or 8-9”….stay tuned”

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH to AFN corridor is safest for warning snow along with Berkshires. Prob a little north too but you gotta worry about QPF diminishing once you start getting further up into monads and past Mitch’s area in S VT…though they could make up for it with good ratios…esp higher terrain. 
 

Next area is Ray down to 495 in east-central MA corridor. As long as precip rates don’t crap out, this area should do fairly well too. But not as safe as higher terrain just west. 
 

Then next area is like Kevin over to N RI to 128 belt up to sea coast Nh. Different reasons for uncertainty in those areas (Kevin it’s midlevel temps and 128 to seacoast it’s BL)

Quick question, easier than digging around for it figured I'd just ask the encyclopedia. How much does the Sherborn and holliston area average for snowfall? Thanks in advance...

[CoastalWx]

It’s definitely some of the worst porkings I’ve been through so far. Still lots of winter left so one biggie could change it. But it’s just feels the same as last last year. It’s a shit feeling. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

And to be fair a forecast of 6” in Hubbardston usually results in 12+.

And he’ll be shocked he got that much.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Quick question, easier than digging around for it figured I'd just ask the encyclopedia. How much does the Sherborn and holliston area average for snowfall? Thanks in advance...

Prob about 58-62” depending on local elevation. Saying “around 60 inches” won’t be too far off for any of these towns…might be closer to 65” once you get above 500 feet in Hopkinton

 

There aren’t a lot of good coops around here unfortunately. The Milford one used to keep decent data but not pristine…I think they averaged like 57 which is close to my numbers and makes sense being a little lower given non-pristine data. 

[8611Blizz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely some of the worst porkings I’ve been through so far. Still lots of winter left so one biggie could change it. But it’s just feels the same as last last year. It’s a shit feeling. 

Eat some linguica,  you'll feel better 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that seems decent. I think even on bad solutions you’ll limp to 2-3” of crapola but you have some upside if you can stay cold enough aloft. Your area is pretty tough. If I was forecasting still for Union I’d be telling the dude “yeah you are probably gonna need plows but it could be 2-3” or 8-9”….stay tuned”

As long as this doesn’t turn into MLK part two 

[Massplow]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that seems decent. I think even on bad solutions you’ll limp to 2-3” of crapola but you have some upside if you can stay cold enough aloft. Your area is pretty tough. If I was forecasting still for Union I’d be telling the dude “yeah you are probably gonna need plows but it could be 2-3” or 8-9”….stay tuned”

What are your current thoughts for the norton/Mansfield area, most maps have us right on the edge of 2-4/1-3 but the box map seems very unimpressed with this area. How much change do we need to see for this to bump up a little in our area. Havnt had much time to follow along with this one as I usually do so I’m trying to figure out where we sit 

[CoastalWx]

Euro still with that banded look. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Positive snow depth would probably be the best but don’t have it for Reggie.

Man, gradient right over my yard....hopefully @tamarackcan queef down some ageo.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro still with that banded look. 

What’s up with that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Positive snow depth would probably be the best but don’t have it for Reggie.

Where do you get the extended REGEM on WxBell?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro still with that banded look. 

Shows up on the totals and hour panels. When you look at ptype map it almost looks like it’s showing up as mixed banding, with such borderline profiles the model qpf output doesn’t know what to do in this situation? 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where do you get the extended REGEM on WxBell?

10km Canadian RDPS under short term models.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

For the CT folks especially southern half. I think most of the Sunday snow depends on the intensity of this band and the thump. All of the snowier guidance is mostly from this band dynamically cooling the column to potentially produce accumulating snow. Without that I think it’s just a rain/white rain mix. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Shows up on the totals and hour panels. When you look at ptype map it almost looks like it’s showing up as mixed banding, with such borderline profiles the model qpf output doesn’t know what to do in this situation? 

Dude. That just accentuates the elevations especially in SNE. This is probably going to be one funny and interesting final snow map after it’s over. I can envision 4-6 differences here in town from 300’ to 1k 

[tavwtby]

feels like mby is riding the edge for some warning snows, just up the hill in Norfolk I'd bet they verify, storms like these they easily get at least a couple more than me here, WSW up for Berks, I'm 6mi as the crow flies from that, thinking 4-6, maybe more if we cold layers, maybe less if we don't,ALY has 4-6 here, solid I'll take it.

[UnitedWx]

45 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah it's crazy how we have had so much precipitation and yet so little of it has fallen as snow. The 1980s were dry but that's pretty much the only difference when it comes down to results. Maybe the 2030s change back to snowy again like the 90s did?

Not necessarily,  we had many a winter where good size storms would come through as pouring rain, and then cold as soon as the storm departed. SO many times the weather Channel 7 day had snow, and you'd slowly watch the forecast maps morph to rain as the storm approached. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Not necessarily,  we had many a winter where good size storms would come through as pouring rain, and then cold as soon as the storm departed. SO many times the weather Channel 7 day had snow, and you'd slowly watch the forecast maps morph to rain as the storm approached. 

My guess is you won’t find a 2 year winter period that had within 10% of total “Winter QPF” as the last 2 with so little % of it leading to accumulating snow for those areas 

I could see Dry and ratter , or even average QPF and rain mild/ cold dry but not such a high QPF winter yielding so little snow 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wildness  and tight qpf gradient very evident 

[kdxken]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob about 58-62” depending on local elevation. Saying “around 60 inches” won’t be too far off for any of these towns…might be closer to 65” once you get above 500 feet in Hopkinton

 

There aren’t a lot of good coops around here unfortunately. The Milford one used to keep decent data but not pristine…I think they averaged like 57 which is close to my numbers and makes sense being a little lower given non-pristine data. 

I have a Cocorahs station abutting my Sherborn property and it has measured 15.3 inches of snow since December 1st. Sound about right to you?