Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would not be shocked if this did a north shuffle. 

Oh it will. Don’t be shocked, expect it. 

[mreaves]

20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Would not be shocked if this did a north shuffle. 

The Dendrite shuffle instead of the Messenger shuffle?

[40/70 Benchmark]

So, looks like Sunday night is the lion's share of this for the region....should have first call Thursday and final on Saturday.

[DJln491]

what in the world is going on with that op 18z GFS run?  it looks confused.

[Prismshine Productions]

what in the world is going on with that op 18z GFS run?  it looks confused.

Got drunk

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Days and days 

[40/70 Benchmark]

[40/70 Benchmark]

That route 2 gradient has been a theme.

[CoastalWx]

Disorganized mess

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Disorganized mess

I would ignore it for now...seem to be gaining a consensus among ensemble means.....12z was the high end of the envelop, this weak...OPs will OP.

[Damage In Tolland]

Feeling pretty good about a solid event anywhere 10 miles or so inland away from coasts 

[ma blizzard]

Def want dynamics on your side in a setup where you start as rain and the colder air is filtering in during the storm. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Feeling pretty good about a solid event anywhere 10 miles or so inland away from coasts 

Keep us posted 

[metagraphica]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Feeling pretty good about a solid event anywhere 10 miles or so inland away from coasts 

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Keep us posted 

I'll be sure to post how much solid rain I get.

[RDRY]

That northern SW dives in and kicks this thing out. Canadian had it too.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Keep us posted 

You too . What don’t you like ?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You too . What don’t you like ?

Prob how disorganized it is. I don’t necessarily like that either because you won’t get good accumulation with that look. 
 

There’s plenty of time to make this more consolidated but I think we’ll want to see this trend better in the next 2-3 cycles to be more confident in anything over high end advisory. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob how disorganized it is. I don’t necessarily like that either because you won’t get good accumulation with that look. 
 

There’s plenty of time to make this more consolidated but I think we’ll want to see this trend better in the next 2-3 cycles to be more confident in anything over high end advisory. 

GEFs modestly improved...  Also more spread closer to the Islands.

fwiw -

I just wonder if the operational GFS has the jitters about venturing the PNA across signs

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob how disorganized it is. I don’t necessarily like that either because you won’t get good accumulation with that look. 
 

There’s plenty of time to make this more consolidated but I think we’ll want to see this trend better in the next 2-3 cycles to be more confident in anything over high end advisory. 

I don’t think this will a warning anywhere in SNE.. nothing that starts as rain usually is 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think this will a warning anywhere in SNE.. nothing that starts as rain usually is 

It doesn’t have to start as rain…and when I say start as rain, I don’t mean for the first 20-40 minutes while the boundary layer evaporationally cools. Yeah technically that counts as “starting as rain”, but it doesn’t really materially affect the storm totals.
 I mean for like several hours while we wait for heights/midlevel temps to crash.
 

There are several version of this storm where we are already cold enough aloft to snow in the beginning. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn’t have to start as rain…and when I say start as rain, I don’t mean for the first 20-40 minutes while the boundary layer evaporationally cools. Yeah technically that counts as “starting as rain”, but it doesn’t really materially affect the storm totals.
 I mean for like several hours while we wait for heights/midlevel temps to crash.
 

There are several version of this storm where we are already cold enough aloft to snow in the beginning. 

There was an event about 5 years ago or so in December .. started as heavy rain in the pre dawn hours. I remember because I was running in it early that morning . It flipped over to heavy , wet snow. We had 6” of pretty solid past nice it flipped over . I believe the lower spots and coasts also flipped but had less . 4-5 years ago or so . I bet you know the event  . This reminds me of that .

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was an event about 5 years ago or so in December .. started as heavy rain in the pre dawn hours. I remember because I was running in it early that morning . It flipped over to heavy , wet snow. We had 6” of pretty solid past nice it flipped over . I believe the lower spots and coasts also flipped but had less . 4-5 years ago or so . I bet you know the event  . This reminds me of that .

12/5/20? Sounds like your description. ORH had a 10” paste bomb in that. We had like 3-4” here and further east had like 1-2”. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/5/20? Sounds like your description. ORH had a 10” paste bomb in that. We had like 3-4” here and further east had like 1-2”. 

Yup … that would be the one. I knew ORH crushed it. When don’t they 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup … that would be the one. I knew ORH crushed it. When don’t they 

This actually looks colder than that one believe it or not. The one thing in that one though was the dynamics were very strong, esp in the first half of the storm. 
 

I want to see some better dynamics in this threat. A few model runs have had it but a lot more runs have been a bit disorganized. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This actually looks colder than that one believe it or not. The one thing in that one though was the dynamics were very strong, esp in the first half of the storm. 
 

I want to see some better dynamics in this threat. A few model runs have had it but a lot more runs have been a bit disorganized. 

Does this event remind you in any way of that ? In looking at it .. to me there were some similarities. But yeah.. dynamics needed to entertain 6-10”

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Disorganized mess

If it’s not one thing, it’s another, but it seems like this has like 8 ways to be bad and 2 to be good. I want to believe, but you know how it’s been.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If it’s not one thing, it’s another, but it seems like this has like 8 ways to be bad and 2 to be good. I want to believe, but you know how it’s been.

I’ll take 3-6 and throw a parade. 

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Disorganized mess

Storm, or the GFS itself...

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Storm, or the GFS itself...

Euro is slightly flatter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is slightly flatter 

That's a good thing.