Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Seeing that kink in H5 around 60h is a good thing. I think if we can see that feature continue to show up on future runs, it raises the ceiling on the event. 

That s/w diving in last minute may help.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like my spot as far as lower terrain goes.

Wish I had about 300 more feet of elevation burger should be OK for at least a few inches back this way.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks a little north of the euro. Regardless, I’m glad to see more model runs giving better QPF rates. GFS is still pretty flaccid but it will eventually cave. Bigger question is whether the northern models are too amped or not. 

It was extremely similar for Route 2 into Central New England In the sense of where the goods were and totals  . It was milder but it didn’t effect much s of route 2 on the 10:1 clowns 

 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ICON gives me like 4" in 10:1...Euro is like 7.

Icon gives you 6-7” on 10:1 and icon Kuchie gives you like 4 not that this needs to be explained much more 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looked like it was unsure on how to link the WCB/CCB…hoping to get more clarity going forward…I mean, WTF is this for the 6-hourly QPF map? Looks like convective cells training

 

 

I saw that too. That's definitely an unusual look.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, George001 said:

Realistically what’s the ceiling here? I figured with how this has evolved it’s not very high outside of the mountains.

There? If everything went right, you might get like 8-10”…….I suppose you could argue for a foot if you’re in one of those 300 foot elevations near Foxborough…but that’s like a 90th percentile outcome. 
 

Right now, I’d set expectations as a couple inches of mashed potatoes and hope things trend better. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It was extremely similar for Route 2 into Central New England In the sense of where the goods were and totals  . It was milder but it didn’t effect much s of route 2 . 

 

Icon gives you 7” on 10:1 and icon Kuchie gives you like 4 not that this needs to be explained much more 

It does need to be explained more because you keep counting the few iches that it drops on Friday.

Its 4" of snow...then 3" more next Friday.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That s/w diving in last minute may help.

Ideally that s/w allows the curl at H5 to happen but then tries to kick it east so that we get the big Kraft ending. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m heading into the 00z runs thinking 4-8” here .. if everything worked perfectly maybe 5-10”.. but I like the looks in general  today for a thump paste  . If 00z pulls the rug then it’s MLK part 2 I guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does need to be explained more because you keep counting the few iches that it drops on Friday.

Its 4" of snow...then 3" more next Friday.

5" call it.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does need to be explained more because you keep counting the few iches that it drops on Friday.

Its 4" of snow...then 3" more next Friday.

Umm nope 

I’m looking at a 78 hour total for 10:1 over Methuen and it’s pink 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m heading into the 00z runs thinking 4-8” here .. if everything worked perfectly maybe 5-10”.. but I like the looks in general  today for a thump paste 

I’m concerned about midlevels there but you are prob just far enough north to do ok. Just don’t want to waste a bunch of QPF on a crap sleet/snow mixture. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Umm nope 

I’m looking at a 78 hour total for 10:1 over Methuen 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ideally that s/w allows the curl at H5 to happen but then tries to kick it east so that we get the big Kraft ending. 

I wish those solutions where the temps dropped quickly would happen. But, hopefully a few inches anyways. 

[mahk_webstah]

I’ve been thinking 3-6 for about 3 days, but looks like 6-10 is on the table up here.

[BostonWX]

Looks like another one of those 10+ spots at MQE while I get 3. Had several of those over the last 2 years.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jfc wxbell has the icon hourly? lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it’s just a difference in the maps we are looking at based on the providor, assuming all relevant hours are included I know we can both read a clown map 

[Digityman]

Are these numbers on the map automatically converted to non-Merica system of units?  /s

[PWMan]

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

White rain for all of us.  Lete embrace it. 

Glad I don't live in Brooklyn.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think it’s just a difference in the maps we are looking at based on the providor, assuming all relevant hours are included I know we can both read a clown map 

Yea, I was just figuring. haha

Anyway, yea...just north of the EURO, but close.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m concerned about midlevels there but you are prob just far enough north to do ok. Just don’t want to waste a bunch of QPF on a crap sleet/snow mixture. 

Ray seems to not agree based on the weiners .. we’ll see

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another 3" here to go with the 3.3" today?  Lots better than the total whiff that's been progged before today.

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m heading into the 00z runs thinking 4-8” here .. if everything worked perfectly maybe 5-10”.. but I like the looks in general  today for a thump paste  . If 00z pulls the rug then it’s MLK part 2 I guess.

concerns

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray seems to agree that I love me the weiners .. we’ll see

We take your word for it.

[SJonesWX]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

wanna know how I know that map is wrong? placement of that sucker hole is about 40 miles north of my noggin. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Just for shits and giggles, 90% EPS

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thinking of increasing my call for MBY from 4-8 to 5-10 

Exciting I know

[HIPPYVALLEY]

45 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

concerns

Many

[weathafella]

12 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Just for shits and giggles, 90% EPS

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Better to post probability of 4/6/8/12.  TYIA

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thinking of increasing my call for MBY from 4-8 to 5-10 

Exciting I know

3pm Monday: “I got a foot…wasn’t expecting that”