Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Sorry, used to do data analysis. I want all the data displayed, lol. I'll calm it down for you folks if that's preferred. 

You’re not presenting data in a snow clown.  You’re presenting the vendor’s interpretation.  The clowns are largely subjective. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I gotta peel myself away from these models geezus I need help , it’s still a couple days away 

Next I’ll be canceling and moving around personal training clients to coincide with the euro and other model runs 

[Spanks45]

Assuming the 3k, rgem, and icon have the right idea...it is amazing how the weather keeps finding ways to not snow down here and this time with the single A models

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

thats not a dryslot , its the northern extent of the precip shield , dryslot is when the wcb moves through and precip shuts off .. low snow totals are bc its warm .. 

 

TBH, I like my spot based on the mid levels.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I like my spot based on the mid levels.

I think it’s mid levels or bust for most outside elevations 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I gotta peel myself away from these models geezus I need help , it’s still a couple days away 

Next I’ll be canceling and moving around personal training clients to coincide with the euro and other model runs 

Euro used to be box office. You’d schedule life around it. Now it’s barely better than Home Shopping Network. Every few hours it’s selling something new. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro used to be box office. You’d schedule life around it. Now it’s barely better than Home Shopping Network. Every few hours it’s selling something new. 

the upgrade worked out very well...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think it’s mid levels or bust for most outside elevations 

I would be more concerned seeing that as a slot within the main QPF field....that just looks like we're on the N edge of the QPF shield, which is where you usually want to be.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I also think we have had an unusual number of very challenging forecast setups the last 2 years . Thermals have been a issue that either effected P type and or ratios for most every system in SNE and that is in addition to the other challenges of track , kickers , phasing etc

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be more concerned seeing that as a slot within the main QPF field....that just looks like we're on the N edge of the QPF shield, which is where you usually want to be.

I think in this situ with the confluence over Maine the cut off is going to be exceptional for someone near Merrimack valley and I wonder if models will handle that sharpness well 

that being said I’m more commenting than neurotic about it this time bc I can be in Bedford Mass as well lol and likely will be anyway 

[MJO812]

Looks like gfs is coming in colder and south

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like gfs is coming in colder and south

Definitely at onset 

[weathafella]

GFS is a disjointed mess.  Congrats on the flurries at onset.

 

edit-Monday may work

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Definitely at onset 

It's way further south . Weird.

[Sn0waddict]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like gfs is coming in colder and south

I guess that matters if you like your rain really cold.

[jbenedet]

LOL. South East Canada CP airmass vaporizing in 10 GFS runs.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Assuming the 3k, rgem, and icon have the right idea...it is amazing how the weather keeps finding ways to not snow down here and this time with the single A models

Right in line with our winter performances..single A. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

I guess that matters if you like your rain really cold.

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wagons south and broken down on gfs 

[MJO812]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wagons south and broken down on gfs 

Outlier

Cmc is warm

[Kitz Craver]

28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

thats not a dryslot , its the northern extent of the precip shield , dryslot is when the wcb moves through and precip shuts off .. low snow totals are bc its warm .. 

 

Another 1”+ cold rain. Bout 9” of snow on the season so far. Epicosity.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’re not presenting data in a snow clown.  You’re presenting the vendor’s interpretation.  The clowns are largely subjective. 

While I understand your point about the ultimate product being proprietary to a specific vendor, I think you're being too pedantic about the definition of data. As an example --- When I was a F-35 flight test engineer, Lockheed Martin would send us 10 Hz data in csv files that we (as government engineers) would run through Matlab (and later Python) to get it in a suitable condition to then run through our own software designed to enable a human analyst to review and score certain aspects of the jet's performance. We'd then package that up into pretty charts and graphs to give back to LM and tell them to fix whatever we found wrong. We called that data. When presenting those charts and graphs to leadership, we referred to it as data.

So yeah, I don't want to see raw data that's being pumped off whatever supercomputer is running the weather model - it would look nonsensical. But if a vendor is going to analyze that raw data using its own algorithms in order to package it into a digestible format for human eyes to view and understand, I'm going to call it data.  

 

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You’re not presenting data in a snow clown.  You’re presenting the vendor’s interpretation.  The clowns are largely subjective. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wagons south and broken down on gfs 

 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Outlier

Cmc is warm

I honestly don't care at this point...just wait and see what happens.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

My sanity in attenuating 

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM

 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

While I understand your point about the ultimate product being proprietary to a specific vendor, I think you're being too pedantic about the definition of data. As an example --- When I was a F-35 flight test engineer, Lockheed Martin would send us 10 Hz data in csv files that we (as government engineers) would run through Matlab (and later Python) to get it in a suitable condition to then run through our own software designed to enable a human analyst to review and score certain aspects of the jet's performance. We'd then package that up into pretty charts and graphs to give back to LM and tell them to fix whatever we found wrong. We called that data. When presenting those charts and graphs to leadership, we referred to it as data.

So yeah, I don't want to see raw data that's being pumped off whatever supercomputer is running the weather model - it would look nonsensical. But if a vendor is going to analyze that raw data using its own algorithms in order to package it into a digestible format for human eyes to view and understand, I'm going to call it data.  

 

 

But the point is the model output should be enough for people to figure out how much snow they’re getting.  The clown maps with one exception seem to maximize snow for us weenies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I honestly trust the NAM here more than the RGEM. I get that there is confluence, but its also a southern stream system....how the RGEM manages to cut the precip at KLWM, yet still have it warm enough for rain across most of the region is beyond me. I know this isn't a SWFE, but I still generally trust the NAM to sniff out warm layers. Now, if you want to tell me the QPF is overdone by a third on the NAM, sure...okay.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My sanity in attenuating 

Confluence sheared it.

[HinghamBoss]

It is really hard to ignore the seasonal trends, but one of these has to play out differently (e.g. like the NAM) eventually...right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I gotta peel myself away from these models geezus I need help , it’s still a couple days away 

Next I’ll be canceling and moving around personal training clients to coincide with the euro and other model runs 

Your last video update was quite bizarre.