Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah like 5000’

You’ve lost it. This is a nice snowstorm in the hills 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s warm. Looks like the cmc. Toss the clowns. More like 2-4” along 84 in wct. 

I wouldn't toss the clowns verbatim 84 north .. It's like 1-2" rates for a few hours 32-33 degrees .. But it's the euro and it's 18z that won't verify so who cares lol just analyzing for fun 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re going to need elevation to get snow to begin 

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah like 5000’

Ya usually 500' + gets it done to see a big difference around here.. Then I notice another uptick around 1000'

[WinterWolf]

It’s not done trending yet…so this is going to change some more. 

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s not done trending yet…so this is going to change some more. 

Aren't you the dude that says ignore the 18z? 

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The EPS has been pretty jumpy too for an ensemble.. Our first storm of the year when you got 18" .. It had my area in the 8-10" zone right up until game-time until the rug got pulled out and everything shifted north.. 

that low end of the range(8”) came very close to verifying here (7.75” warning event) though… so that wasn’t that bad here anyway.  But for sure, it’s so jumpy now. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, kdxken said:

Aren't you the dude that says ignore the 18z? 

Absolutely.  That’s why I said it’s not done trending, I wouldn’t take the 18z output seriously. 

[dryslot]

But is there a trend?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

But is there a trend?

There is not. A lot of waffling instead.

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

MA/CT border?

Yeah it briefly kisses there…here’s 75-78-81 hours. You can see how it wobbles over C/N CT before collapsing by 81 hours. 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

But is there a trend?

What I mean is that’s not the final solution imo. This is going to change some more. Whether it’s good or bad..who knows? But it’s not done changing. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I wouldn't toss the clowns verbatim 84 north .. It's like 1-2" rates for a few hours 32-33 degrees .. But it's the euro and it's 18z that won't verify so who cares lol just analyzing for fun 

It looks very marginal here but I trust your analysis. Still, I see the Wagons north coming next 36hrs.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There is not. A lot of waffling instead.

Its a ship without a rudder so far, Maybe 0z starts one.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What I mean is that’s not the final solution imo. This is going to change some more. Whether it’s good or bad..who knows? But it’s not done changing. 

That i agree with, But its going to have to start showing something more positive here soon or this will be another meh event,

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Peak winter climo and we continue to fight and claw our way for every 1C cooling in the mid levels. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it briefly kisses there…here’s 75-78-81 hours. You can see how it wobbles over C/N CT before collapsing by 81 hours. 
 

 

Snowy look 

[dryslot]

Pretty good bump north on the 18z EPS from the 12z run, A bit more juice too.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Peak winter climo and we continue to fight and claw our way for every 1C reduction. 

We missed on the good pattern…just bad gugu unfortunately. Now we have a bad airmass, with a system trying to approach…shit happens man. Sucks. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pretty good bump north on the 18z EPS from the 12z run, A bit more juice too.

Yessah 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Anyone have the spiffy Euro probability maps?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

42 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m thinking 4-8” in my neck of the woods right now.  Low ceiling.    This will be a wet pasty one.  

4”-5” here 6”-8” there. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it briefly kisses there…here’s 75-78-81 hours. You can see how it wobbles over C/N CT before collapsing by 81 hours. 
 

 

Cooler in se Mass than mt Tolland?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

But is there a trend?

Yes, weenies getting more unhinged with every passing week, 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Anyone have the spiffy Euro probability maps?

Pretty low odds of you matching last March 

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Kevin to begin as snow as you surmised you’ll have to be pretty high up

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Pretty low odds of you matching last March 

 

 

 

Exactly. 2-4” along 84 is about right but any more wagons north and it’s a violent goodbye. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Exactly. 2-4” along 84 is about right but any more wagons north and it’s a violent goodbye. 

Ya I’m still leaning goodbye lol .. maybe we will catch a bone and it can be a tick or two south. I’ll check back in tomorrow. 

[wokeupthisam]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We missed on the good pattern…just bad gugu unfortunately. Now we have a bad airmass, with a system trying to approach…shit happens man. Sucks. 

Winter channeling demotivational posters (so far...)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said:

Winter channeling demotivational posters (so far...)

1717?

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It looks very marginal here but I trust your analysis. Still, I see the Wagons north coming next 36hrs.

You bet the wagons will be coming north once I start running these models from the Cray in my basement. You're lucky that the 00z 3km NAM currently running is trying to knock power out at my house for the rest of the 2020's.