Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Snow depth change? Since when has this ever been close to reality

when it's 33-34 degrees and crappy rates 

[dryslot]

Post 24 hr maps not total snow, That will give a better picture of where the snow line is.

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't care if I am screwed in that depiction.....its like drawing the shit end of the straw vs snot.

I will take the 6 to 8 . Still trying to figure out your analogy

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

when it's 33-34 degrees and crappy rates 

925s - 4 and surface 34?This is a solid snow look

[Prismshine Productions]

Post 24 hr maps not total snow, That will give a better picture of where the snow line is.

2 day 10:1

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Layman]

24 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It almost makes no sense to follow these models. They are so bad from day to day and from model to model. This is something that's been happening more and more over the last few years. What a disappointment this could turn out to be

I understand the sentiment about the models but I think it really comes down to the fact that these are imperfect human-created systems trying to extrapolate an incredibly dynamic atmospheric manifold (thanks Tip!) to predict what may happen at a specific place, at a specific time that we individually may or may not want to happen.  The weather will ultimately be whatever it's going to be at that place and moment in time regardless of what we want, think, wish-for or feel.  

My personal knee-jerk reaction has been similar with regard to the models where I think "these things can't get it right!"  However, when I consider what they're trying to do and how accurate they may or may not be, I realize it's an incredibly tall task and it's amazing that we can get as close as we do.  

Imagine if someone was really good at counting cards in a deck playing Blackjack.  One hand has a single deck.  Next hand, 10 cards are added.  Next hand 2 cards are taken away and a 2nd deck is added.  And on and on.  Comparing to weather, it would seem that there are more cards in the deck further out and they're taken away as we get closer to the event - to the point where the card counter is doing pretty good considering what's gone on and what's left in the deck.  I can envision the emotional investment being similar between the gambler and the weather aficionado!  

If nothing else, I find it interesting, engaging and often humorous if you don't have a dog in the fight one way or another.

[WxWatcher007]

When we’re arguing whether a model run is generally good or not…we know the answer to the question.

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Please stop with the nonsense.

You Can’t be serious?  I posted the truth. You don’t like it, tough shit. You can block me. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Gotta love the euro dropping a large polar vortex right on top of us a few days after. 

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

I love a good conspiracy like the next guy heh... but I mentioned that sentiment a couple years ago myself, but at the time it was an eye-brow raise based upon what I read; they are in the process of a core changes in the way the model is processed -  AI/ and even QM

hm...  It would be more like they're giving us a beta version they know full well isn't as good but is still competitive, as a calculated trajectory.  Then they release some kinda quantum computing extra double top secret version  which is truly supreme ... for supreme cost.

Who's with me!  hahaha

[WinterWolf]

I’ll take my 3” and add it to my 10.2” that I have on the season so far, …and it’ll beat my season total from all of last year. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Decent spread on euro ens 

Centered 125 miles east of 0z ens for Monday 1pm. More progressive members 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Here

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Congrats Ginxy…he will be the only one smiling.

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Congrats Ginxy…he will be the only one smiling.

Smilin

Drop the g.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Smilin

Drop the g string. 

You nasty boyee.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS are not very exciting either. The mean is fairly close to the OP except less for the Cape and SE areas. 

[mahk_webstah]

Fascinating with the GFS coming around to what the European was selling for three days and as soon as they did it, European went back to the prior GFS solution. Is it some sort of power struggle?

[ma blizzard]

24 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Gotta love the euro dropping a large polar vortex right on top of us a few days after. 

 Not record breaking stuff verbatim, but that looks frigid .. near ideal delivery angle straight from Baffin Island. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Reminds me a little of the shining 

all rain and no snow make Scooter a very angry guy?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS are not very exciting either. The mean is fairly close to the OP except less for the Cape and SE areas. 

Model kind of blew it in the mid range here 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Model kind of blew it in the mid range here 

It’s a just a shell of its former self…what a shame, and quite sad actually.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

 Not record breaking stuff verbatim, but that looks frigid .. near ideal delivery angle straight from Baffin Island. 

Just in time to freeze Scooter 's slush puddles 

[Spanks45]

5 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Models have precip knocking at our door to our SW by 12Z Sunday, thats a little over 24 hours from the start. If it takes that long to just "have a better idea" then thats some sad shit-ha. I think we'll start having a good idea what we're looking at by 00Z tonight. That's about D3. Btw i dig your sig, colorful and neat.

On a side note, OKX does not seem to be interested in any snow right now. Even for their northern most zones its categorical Rain, with only the mention of a chance of snow at the end. I'd think they'd have at least Rain & Snow or Rain or Snow at this timeframe

Well, looking at 12z today....I guess we have a consensus, at least around here at least. Little to no impact with more rain coming. OKX definitely knows how to forecast snow events around here, set the bar low and stay there. 

Thanks for the props on the sig, easy to read by all, if they want to anyways....

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not sure some of you made the right read off the Euro - just saw it.

It's really not farther S than the 00z run. It's faster along the same latitude - or too close by comparison to make any difference .. not worth the bi-polar reaction ( nervy neurotics for the low haha).

This run is in fact slightly deeper than the 00z run - but .. me really enough to matter there either.

The only difference here that sticks out to me is the areal expanse of QPF.  It's just drier - though it is not abundantly clear to me why that is the case.  So be it... That's suspicious.  

I don't think this run "caved" to jack shit really considering these aspects are so unchanged.  The QPF not being as distributed is debatable as even real. 

This run over all has really bad continuity so ... it's not abundantly clear this run should be used just because its bad and appeals some weird abandonment issues. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s a just a shell of its former self…what a shame, and quite sad actually.  

Sometimes I wonder if people’s perception of the Euro is a little different than what reality actually was.  The other models just sucked so much more.

 

[Kitz Craver]

48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You Can’t be serious?  I posted the truth. You don’t like it, tough shit. You can block me. 

Dude. You are obnoxious. You whine more about the non snow whiners, than the non snow whiners whine about not having snow. Yet the irony escapes you. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just in time to freeze Scooter 's slush puddles 

Where's my climb to climo. I may be climbing the high tension wires down the street.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure some of you made the right read off the Euro - just saw it.

It's really not farther S than the 00z run. It's faster along the same latitude - or too close by comparison to make any difference .. not worth the bi-polar reaction ( nervy neurotics for the low haha).

This run is in fact slightly deeper than the 00z run - but .. me really enough to matter there either.

The only difference here that sticks out to me is the areal expanse of QPF.  It's just drier - though it is not abundantly clear to me why that is the case.  So be it... That's suspicious.  

I don't think this run "caved" to jack shit really considering these aspects are so unchanged.  The QPF not being as distributed is debatable as even real. 

This run over all has really bad continuity so ... it's not abundantly clear this run should be used just because its bad and appeals some weird abandonment issues. 

Yeah i mentioned it earlier….it actually had nice midlevel track with H7 going over ACK area…I think it was a little faster which hurts its ability to really draw in more moisture off Atlantic but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a replica of that track produce a bit more on future runs.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Dude. You are obnoxious. You whine more about the non snow whiners, than the non snow whiners whine about not having snow. Yet the irony escapes you. 

Now say it 10x fast.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah i mentioned it earlier….it actually had nice midlevel track with H7 going over ACK area…I think it was a little faster which hurts its ability to really draw in more moisture off Atlantic but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a replica of that track produce a bit more on future runs.  

My impression as well.