Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[dryslot]

The pukie like's CMA

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll take Ray’s 5-10” and run. The kids good 

They moved Tolland to ORH and N RI?  Cool!

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

What if I don't, are you going to start angrily charging up the Meriden-Waterbury Turnpike canines showing?

Absolutely…Not. Lol.
 

I just do t get the angst anymore..especially at this juncture. It’s gonna change and morph quite a bit between now and Sunday night. So just roll with it…it’s just another run. 
 

And if it goes to shit, then go out and get away from this place.  It ain’t healthy if all it’s doing is making you upset. 

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely…Not. Lol.
 

I just do t get the angst anymore..especially at this juncture. It’s gonna change and morph quite a bit between now and Sunday night. So just roll with it…it’s just another run. 
 

And if it goes to shit, then go out and get away from this place.  It ain’t healthy if all it’s doing is making you upset. 

I think the angst comes from knowing how precarious the setup is and the propensity for the Euro to show a good solution around D4-5 only to pull the rug out. It seems to happen more often lately than it did in its heyday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

 

Uh oh. First fall in jeopardy?

Every First Call is inherently in jeopardy, which is why it isn't a Final Call. Everyone had this a cape storm 2 hours ago, and now my map is tossed for being too far south

Repeat after me..."nuance if my friend, not my foe.....breathe well uttering that phrase.

[ORH_wxman]

Kevin this might be the paster you’ve been waiting for. 

[8611Blizz]

Looks like we coasties will get our 2-4 the hard way.   Would be nice to get some cold clippers to do the same.

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Every First Call is inherently in jeopardy, which is why it isn't a Final Call. Everyone had this a cape storm 2 hours ago, and now my map is tossed for being too far south

Repeat after me..."nuance if my friend, not my foe.....breathe well uttering that phrase.

You’re good. Best bet is just to keep all snow maps with the coast at 1-3 or less. We don’t snow on the coast anymore. Now just away from the coast, let it snow!

[codfishsnowman]

The CT/ma border has one good storm so far this season, please no one be jealous lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin this might be the paster you’ve been waiting for. 

Looks kind of warm for him, no?

We are toast here regardless of track of this isn’t going to strengthen and drain some cold in.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

They moved Tolland to ORH and N RI?  Cool!

You can just assume that 5-10” contour encompasses all of the NE hills 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin this might be the paster you’ve been waiting for. 

I’m definitely getting some movement below the belt . So far it’s just movement 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m definitely getting some movement below the belt . So far it’s just movement 

Rhea?

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I think the angst comes from knowing how precarious the setup is and the propensity for the Euro to show a good solution around D4-5 only to pull the rug out. It seems to happen more often lately than it did in its heyday.

Yup, Euro is just another model now, so I agree there. But I mean in general. Gotta have other winter hobbies and activities. Skiing, sledding, snowshoeing…whatever. 

[The 4 Seasons]

ill give it to 00Z tonight but im out for anything more than just some rain ending as white rain here

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

ill give it to 00Z tonight but im out for anything more than just some rain ending as white rain here

34/51 6Z EPS members give me 8 inches of snow or more. You can bail early but this is going to play out colder.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m definitely getting some movement below the belt . So far it’s just movement 

As we move through future model runs things should start to unfold for you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup, Euro is just another model now, so I agree there. But I mean in general. Gotta have other winter hobbies and activities. Skiing, sledding, snowshoeing…whatever. 

Euro is the one that remained fairly amped....

[WxWatcher007]

52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I’ll take 2-4 inches and be happy..if that’s how it plays out.  Thank you. 

I’ve been one of the more optimistic folks this season, but I think we’ve reached the juncture where it’s warning level or bust in interior CT. Obviously with lower climo at the coast a 4” deal can work still. We need meaningful production to come from our opportunities if we’re going to be anywhere close to climo in CT. 

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

34/51 6Z EPS members give me 8 inches of snow or more. You can bail early but this is going to play out colder.

Why would it play out colder? It's a garbage airmass ahead of it and you need to time the CAA just right. If anything these bumps north mean warmer. Of course you need bumps warmer to get the juice.

[UnitedWx]

54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

WE need to move 25-30 miles north. It’s getting exhausting watching the CT/MA border cash in. 

Worked out pretty well for me so far, but I still wish I could move up to the Berks. As far as this system, we all should know this isn't done trending one way or the other

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

34/51 6Z EPS members give me 8 inches of snow or more. You can bail early but this is going to play out colder.

valley floor vs 500-1000ft can mean the difference between 0 and 10" in many events, sometimes within the same town. And with this type of marginal shit airmass you're probably gonna need it. I'm not bailing yet well see what tonights runs look like, but it's looking kinda bleak for the CT shoreline..need a lot to go right

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks kind of warm for him, no?

We are toast here regardless of track of this isn’t going to strengthen and drain some cold in.

It looks plenty cold over the interior once it gets going. Might start as a little rain but 925s are like -2 to -3….no chance of rain for him when it wetbulbs to that profile. 

[Kitz Craver]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

First Call.....will update Saturday.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-significant-sunday.html

Damn that’s a pretty robust map. I’ll be quite happy with 4-8” though I’m not sure I see that happening 

[H2Otown_WX]

53 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Completely exhausting. Staring down the barrel of another wet slushy commute Monday. Pain 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Damn that’s a pretty robust map. I’ll be quite happy with 4-8” though I’m not sure I see that happening 

It will def. need to be adjusted..lower end of that may be feasible. I kind of had to play the all encompassing comporomise approach.

[Winter Wizard]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

valley floor vs 500-1000ft can mean the difference between 0 and 10" in many events, sometimes within the same town. And with this type of marginal shit airmass you're probably gonna need it. I'm not bailing yet well see what tonights runs look like, but it's looking kinda bleak for the CT shoreline..need a lot to go right

I agree with you on this one, this airmass is poor and I would keep expectations very low near the coast. I do think everyone will changeover at the end as colder air advects, but the question is, would that be too late for anything appreciable? It can work with a Euro like amped solution, but not so much if it's weaker like some of the other models. 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

valley floor vs 500-1000ft can mean the difference between 0 and 10" in many events, sometimes within the same town. And with this type of marginal shit airmass you're probably gonna need it. I'm not bailing yet well see what tonights runs look like, but it's looking kinda bleak for the CT shoreline..need a lot to go right

Yeah I think the shoreline is in trouble. Interior CT still looks solid for plowable but again, a 3-4” deal there isn’t gonna cut there it if we want to keep a realistic pace of reaching seasonal climo. We can’t and shouldn’t assume a big dog is gonna run through the door of multi-season futility and save us. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks plenty cold over the interior once it gets going. Might start as a little rain but 925s are like -2 to -3….no chance of rain for him when it wetbulbs to that profile. 

Unless it bumps north another 60 or so ?

[George001]

31 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks kind of warm for him, no?

We are toast here regardless of track of this isn’t going to strengthen and drain some cold in.

Just yesterday you said you are feeling pretty good about this one. What happened?