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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I will take that considering how I expect this to trend heading into the weekend.

With the way this system is dancing around with the cold air to the north, SE is probably ok for now. Too early and its congrats PF, too late and its congrats to the fishes....As many have pointed out, very thread the needle situation....probably have to wait until Saturday 12z to get a better idea

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Prismshine Productions
Prismshine Productions

Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

dryslot
dryslot

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

dendrite
dendrite

ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

With the way this system is dancing around with the cold air to the north, SE is probably ok for now. Too early and its congrats PF, too late and its congrats to the fishes....As many have pointed out, very thread the needle situation....probably have to wait until Saturday 12z to get a better idea

Models have precip knocking at our door to our SW by 12Z Sunday, thats a little over 24 hours from the start. If it takes that long to just "have a better idea" then thats some sad shit-ha. I think we'll start having a good idea what we're looking at by 00Z tonight. That's about D3. Btw i dig your sig, colorful and neat.

On a side note, OKX does not seem to be interested in any snow right now. Even for their northern most zones its categorical Rain, with only the mention of a chance of snow at the end. I'd think they'd have at least Rain & Snow or Rain or Snow at this timeframe

1250218650_Screenshot2024-01-25083204.thumb.png.8b8eced82d8737ca650cf61253a2774c.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

a lot more decent hits for southern areas on i noticed compared to 00Z/18Z. Mean shifted south as well

We don’t want it to go too far south, or else we’re getting 1 to 2 inches of wind blown snow. Ideally, we’d want it to deepen and slow a little bit.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

With the way this system is dancing around with the cold air to the north, SE is probably ok for now. Too early and its congrats PF, too late and its congrats to the fishes....As many have pointed out, very thread the needle situation....probably have to wait until Saturday 12z to get a better idea

When you come right down to it, The bottom line is: it’s always a thread the needle, if You want a bigger event. It’s Such an over used term. You gotta have all the ingredients come together, just right, and It’s gotta go in the exact right location to give any one area the goods.  Imo, that’s always a thread the needle.  

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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30 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If we do end up getting a region-wide warning event on Jan 28-29th it will have been exactly 2 years to the day since the last one in CT.

 

01_28.22_jdj_snowfall_totals.thumb.jpg.257c1a10486b24b2e4a1b55a4bd3ae06.jpg

I’m not thinking that’s a region wide warning event for NW CT on that map.  It was for central areas. And that sucked for most…except east, and Eastern Mass.  I Hate that POS storm. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Models have precip knocking at our door to our SW by 12Z Sunday, thats a little over 24 hours from the start. If it takes that long to just "have a better idea" then thats some sad shit-ha. I think we'll start having a good idea what we're looking at by 00Z tonight. That's about D3. Btw i dig your sig, colorful and neat.

On a side note, OKX does not seem to be interested in any snow right now. Even for their northern most zones its categorical Rain, with only the mention of a chance of snow at the end. I'd think they'd have at least Rain & Snow or Rain or Snow at this timeframe

1250218650_Screenshot2024-01-25083204.thumb.png.8b8eced82d8737ca650cf61253a2774c.png

Lol..they won’t be interested until Saturday evening, if it’s still a threat at that time. 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not thinking that’s a region wide warning event for NW CT on that map.  It was for central areas. And that sucked for most…except east, and Eastern Mass.  I Hate that POS storm. 

Yeah it was pretty awful, i call it the Lite-version of Jan 26-27, 2015. I'd love 7" of wind whipped cold snowfall, don't get me wrong but i was expecting a lot more from that one and got stuck in the middle of bands..areas to my west and east got more. And just like Jan 15, i missed the big dog 12-16 numbers by like 10 miles to my east

And no, Litchfield/NW CT did not get a warning event for that one..but they've gotten plenty since. I'll just say it was the last big snowstorm..down to the coast where 95% of the population did hit that 6+ amount. It was the last time areas that did get warning snowfall for that event --- haven't seen one since.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m not thinking that’s a region wide warning event for NW CT on that map.  It was for central areas. And that sucked for most…except east, and Eastern Mass.  I Hate that POS storm. 

I remember that too. It's so funny how normally 9 in would be great, which is what we had in Plainville, but seeing our neighbors only 35 mi or so to the east get 21 inches is almost a kick in the balls. Lol

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Nemo in Feb 2013 was probably the last time that all of SNE saw like 18 plus inches from a storm.

Yes. Central and W areas really haven't had a big dog since. At this point im just hoping for a 6" system but even that is like pulling teeth.

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ChangeofSeasonsWX

ChangeofSeasonsWX

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yes. Central and W areas really haven't had a big dog since. At this point im just hoping for a 6" system but even that is like pulling teeth.

I didn't realize that it was that rare for central and west areas to get that much. Has climo always favored eastern areas? It seems like even out east we get screwed a lot though. Storms that take a Dec 1992 type track and screw SE areas with rain.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...says the one dude who has yet to regress :lol: Hopefully that bad has been about paid...

He had suboptimal years when we were cashing in and as such, perhaps Dave is showing sympathy for the rest of us.

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