Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

WPC has this as a S of Rte2 system that favors most QPF  SE mass and cape with a low 125 miles S of BM Monday @12z but E flow enhancing elevations S of rte 2

looks like tons of E flow into SE mass but not quite  cold enough as probs for winter precip above .25 QPF is 10-30% for S SNE with Catskills , berks orh 30-50% probs for greater than .25 of winter QPF

should update in few hours 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro snow maps look nice .. Nice storm track.. But man that's close to all rain on a benchmark track for many .. Cold never really pours in like yesterday's runs 

[The 4 Seasons]

16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro snow maps look nice .. Nice storm track.. But man that's close to all rain on a benchmark track for many .. Cold never really pours in like yesterday's runs 

Meh. 

[CoastalWx]

6z euro looks flatter and southeast.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro looks flatter and southeast.

Of course it does 

[H2Otown_WX]

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro snow maps look nice .. Nice storm track.. But man that's close to all rain on a benchmark track for many .. Cold never really pours in like yesterday's runs 

You know what they say...to get the biggest totals you gotta be able to smell the rain.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro looks flatter and southeast.

Looks like gfs , hopefully just a blip.  if it caves to gfs at 12z  I’m so done with that model 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like gfs , hopefully just a blip.  if it caves to gfs at 12z  I’m so done with that model 

Icon was very flat at 06z 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like gfs , hopefully just a blip.  if it caves to gfs at 12z  I’m so done with that model 

Ive been done with it. No horse, just a pony. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ive been done with it. No horse, just a pony. 

Just glue factory 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

You know what they say...to get the biggest totals you gotta be able to smell the rain.

We’ve smelled a ton of rain and gotten the biggest totals…but in liquid form.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Of course it does 

You’ll have to laugh it off if your positivity fails you. 

[CoastalWx]

We’ll see what the ensembles say

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ll see what the ensembles say

Wondering if se see a late push north, but maybe I'm wrong on that...should be an interesting weekend. I at least hope it works out for you guys down there that have been porked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This run looks a bit slower, too...

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wondering if se see a late push north, but maybe I'm wrong on that...should be an interesting weekend. I at least hope it works out for you guys down there that have been porked.

It’s not just me, even Kevin has been neutered. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not just me, even Kevin has been neutered. 

I know.....maybe a SOP/CJ deal, anyway.....just hopefully a few inches up here with the kids all coming back tomorrow...would be nice to get them out while daddy breaks his ass shoveling.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ll have to laugh it off if your positivity fails you. 

I mean, this didn’t look like a whiff deal to me; I was worried about rain honestly. I think the moral of the story is until further notice, take the most benign solution for winter weather and ride that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, this didn’t look like a whiff deal to me; I was worried about rain honestly. I think the moral of the story is until further notice, take the most benign solution for winter weather and ride that 

You still may end up glad this faded for a stretch.....lets see what happens.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wondering if se see a late push north, but maybe I'm wrong on that...should be an interesting weekend. I at least hope it works out for you guys down there that have been porked.

I’m still expecting a push north at some point given it’s a southern streamer. It’s possible we have a bunch of turd southeast scraper solutions and everyone here cancels the threat and then it comes back N….or maybe it starts at 12z. 

[Typhoon Tip]

06z Euro may verify, it may not ... But the GFS is still exhibiting transitive influence from a more aggressive arctic/polar branch of the westerlies diving SE through the Maritime region NE of Maine.  

The previous Euro runs have that jet at less mechanical strength, also positioned crucially some 200 mi NE with the axis.  

Those differences appear to be almost entirely why the Euro gets it closer on the 00z run; also the storm benefits by moving into an opened up larger development space within which to deepen.  

The GFS circumstance does not provide as favorable an arena.  Basically ... the storm reels to confluence as it nears. It encounters a small development space and the 'transitive' aspect is the shunting S. 

You have to set both runs side by side at hour 102 or so, and toggle back and forth until your eyes see it - it's very subtle but this thing is medium intensity as the trough wobbles across the continent and then it either runs into a backward exertion wall (GFS).  Or, it opens up into a more favorable region of cyclogenesis (Euro) - by circumstance somewhat N.

Flip a coin.  It's reminding me of that RGEM coup storm a little.  Leitmotif this winter is that any snow at all has to be a tedious dental procedure to get the models to admit it.  Maybe this time they'll finally be right and we miss...  Hey, the thread was capped at mid confidence for a reason.  And we did intimate this event could fail, too.   But we'll see

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m still expecting a push north at some point given it’s a southern streamer. It’s possible we have a bunch of turd southeast scraper solutions and everyone here cancels the threat and then it comes back N….or maybe it starts at 12z. 

Yea, same page....I find it hard to believe that much mass flux results in so little consequence in terms of clyclogen.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not just me, even Kevin has been neutered. 

Outtie is gone just a hole left 

[ORH_wxman]

Someone who is not on a phone can prob toggle EPS to see if they moved…but they look really close to 00z just eyeballing…maybe the smallest tick SE

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

06z Euro may verify, it may not ... But the GFS is still exhibiting transitive influence from a more aggressive arctic/polar branch of the westerlies diving SE through the Maritime region NE of Maine.  

The previous Euro runs have that jet at less mechanical strength, also positioned crucially some 200 mi NE with the axis.  

Those differences appear to be almost entirely why the Euro gets it closer on the 00z run; also the storm benefits by moving into an opened up larger development space within which to deepen.  

The GFS circumstance does not provide as favorable an arena.  Basically ... the storm reels to confluence as it nears. It encounters a small development space and the 'transitive' aspect is the shunting S. 

You have to set both runs side by side at hour 102 or so, and toggle back and forth until your eyes see it - it's very subtle but this thing is medium intensity as the trough wobbles across the continent and then it either runs into a backward exertion wall (GFS).  Or, it opens up into a more favorable region of cyclogenesis (Euro) - by circumstance somewhat N.

Flip a coin.  It's reminding me of that RGEM coup storm a little.  Leitmotif this winter is that any snow at all has to be a tedious dental procedure to get the models to admit it.  Maybe this time they'll finally be right and we miss...  Hey, the thread was capped at mid confidence for a reason.  And we did intimate this event could fail, too.   But we'll see

SOP has endured a wisdom tooth extraction.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Someone who is not on a phone can prob toggle EPS to see if they moved…but they look really close to 00z just eyeballing…maybe the smallest tick SE

 

Those look fantastic . Game very much on 

[dryslot]

06z EPS is a tic or so SE of the 0z run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

06z EPS is a tic or so SE of the 0z run.

TBH, I will take that considering how I expect this to trend heading into the weekend.

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I will take that considering how I expect this to trend heading into the weekend.

Another rug pull for SOP? Lol

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I will take that considering how I expect this to trend heading into the weekend.

These weaker surface lows reflect a further SE track, Also lower heights out ahead of this is not helping either, Your going want to see this amped up even if it means some rain on the front end for some before the changeover to snow as you tap some colder air, Pretty fine line to the solution that can produce.