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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Let that be a lesson to y'all.  Don't ever doubt the +d(PNA) --> +d(PNAP)  ... the latter is always right!

haha.   Kidding... but trying to see through an index inflection ( referring to sign flipping) ...

image.png.aabd889e730781a25bd3be328b71e07c.png

it's sort of like an 'probability event horizon' 

Hell... no sense being creative with the verbiage.  Synoptics 101, pattern changes are problematic for model performance.  I mean it's likely improving over the years as the tech continues to evolve and so forth - but this is substantial PNA loading event and sometimes if the shoe fits...

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Prismshine Productions
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Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:31 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A bump SE would be great 

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I think you'd do better with it a bit more amped...all those CCB goods to your SW in PA would get you. OBviously don't need the low crawling into NY/LI, but a bit more N before getting shunted east would prob be more violence for W CT.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I think you'd do better with it a bit more amped...all those CCB goods to your SW in PA would get you. OBviously don't need the low crawling into NY/LI, but a bit more N before getting shunted east would prob be more violence for W CT.

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True the WCB definitely dies out before us in New England .. Just tired here of the constant last minute push NW that takes us out of the goods 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:42 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Am I being a downer for not being overly impressed by that run? It has the shredded radar and patchy precip vibes outside of eastern PA and Plymouth county 

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It’s not the final solution…so it was a positive run for SNE…it’s gonna morph some more. But it’s heading in the better  direction. I think that’s the takeaway. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:32 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well ya it's just the dying WCB and then the CCB starts so it looks funny.. But I love the look of the end/colder part of the storm .. kevins days and days 

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Yea sorry. I didn’t mean to sound like you cared about the precip shield either. It looks like a mini Dec10 if everything comes together…and a big if.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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In case anyone's interested in some analytics instead of just rollin' eyes back in head as the drug plunges into vein ...

but.. .this shortwave below is probably what starts the 'shunting' east in the Euro and stems the translation into SNE of that NE Pa snow bomb...

image.png.d14490b9a5750a0251eea965db8dd05a.png

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:45 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

In case anyone's interested in some analytics instead of just rollin' eyes back in head as the drug plunges into vein ...

but.. .this shortwave below is probably what starts the 'shunting' east in the Euro and stems the translation into SNE of that NE Pa snow bomb...

image.png.d14490b9a5750a0251eea965db8dd05a.png

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Is it possible that piece could ultimately phase in if the sw is more amped, slower deeper?

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Spanks45

Spanks45

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:45 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea sorry. I didn’t mean to sound like you cared about the precip shield either. It looks like a mini Dec10 if everything comes together…and a big if.

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One huge positive right now, its start precipitating around 108 hrs.....not 150. Almost time for the Nam to start showing 40" of snow

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:48 PM, Spanks45 said:

One huge positive right now, its start precipitating around 108 hrs.....not 150. Almost time for the Nam to start showing 40" of snow

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ya I was saying this, the first half of the storm is inside day 4 for tonights runs .. miss the days when euro day 3.5 was the truth

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/24/2024 at 6:47 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Is it possible that piece could ultimately phase in if the sw is more amped, slower deeper?

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yeah... I mean, the impetus there is that we're still sort of shuffling shit around in the guidance. 

If it were to get instrumental, it would have to be sped up enough to begin interacting with that S/stream a lot sooner ... like by Chicago or don't.  That's for starts.  There, it's not really interacting with the S/W space, it's acting like a kicker.

That feature was there on prior runs ... but now that our system in question is what it is, the former's influence on it becomes more noticeable.  

I'm also noticing less N/stream arctic jet intrusion as prior runs. That's also helping.  We've been dealt two blessings so far on this run.  Less of the N/stream obtruding and pushing everything out, which then allows a stronger embedded mechanical system to have fun.

I'm just saying that if we could tone it down with that follow up useless piece of shit party crasher, that would also help.

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