Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[RDRY]

[MJO812]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ooof

[WinterWolf]

Can’t toss or ride any one solution right now. It’s still morphing and trying to sort out the pieces. GFS, ICON, CMC all just possibilities at this stage. This could look totally different by Friday and Saturday as we’ve seen happen countless times.  At least we tracking something.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ooof

Droopy saggy abomination of an ensemble suite. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the PNA is also initially stronger, so the shortwave is a bit slower and more amped. we want slower here since it allows for more interaction with the energy diving through the Lakes as well as having the benefit of a slightly colder airmass

Not to fall back on the principles of 'bundimentalism' or anything but the ICONic solution "looks" a helluva lot more +d(PNA) --> +d(PNAP)  than the these other guidance that can't seem to extend the Pacific changes across the continent - for some reason.

The latter could turn out correct but just sayn'.  In a canonical sense of a (-) to (+) sign flipping PNA ... those tends to lead to more amplitude than not.  interesting solution. 

Also noticing the GEFs mean trying to re-introduce some spread along the NW ... 

It's threading needle headaches.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie is a nice hit for SE MA/RI...Cape really gets it. Advisory back in the interior east of the river.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

We have a 2hr delay…it’s a beautiful thing. When it really snows or ice..no school. So the best of all worlds with regards to any type of adverse weather.

But I too feel for the commuters …that’s no fun at all. So I can understand their plight. 

We had a 2 hour delayu for a PD day.  In my 23+ years I don't ever recall that happening.  This is great!

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is a nice hit for SE MA/RI...Cape really gets it. Advisory back in the interior east of the river.

Sounds similar to the GEM.

[SouthCoastMA]

ICON/GEM/UKIE all notable hits here. GFS getting suppressed the most violently by the northern stream. 

Overall a good start to 12z for EMA/RI

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds similar to the GEM.

Came way north from 00Z, 00Z was completely OTS and a whiff for everyone..get whiplash looking at that model

[Typhoon Tip]

I think all solutions have a non-standard chance of both more mechanical power/deeper low, and also repositioning NW ... These runs may just be the beginning of sniffing that out.  

ICON shows you don't know to have it move ideally along the quintessential climate route, because the idiosyncrasy of this system's surrounding synoptic circumstance has a long fetch easterly anomaly blowin' all the way at ALB whilst the low is actually 300 M S of ISP. It moves maybe 150 mi (?) close approach to ACK, but that E wind anomaly and some modest mid level jet support is enough to spread moderate snows clear to almost RUT VT.

GGEM has this same exact conceptual aspect going on, just slightly yet SE of the ICON. 

GFS... hm... thing is, I am singularly impressed with the improvements ( not kidding here) I've noticed with the GFS since this last upgrade;  that said, I still detect that of all plausibly faster solutions that are not being physically violated, it tends to hang out with that group.  A situation like this is delicate... it needs not have the N/stream rushed into it like a not-so-charming wedding crasher.

UKMET is beginning ( perhaps ...) to sniff the NW trend.   

Haven't seen the Euro but it was a warm zonked solution yesterday at least on one cycle.... I'm noticing that the BL in these other guidance is ticking down as the cycles tick sooner.  I don't hold a warm solution against any guidance source, at 120 hours, in this hemispheric circumstance ..

While all this is happening, the governing wave mechanics are just now nearing the Washington/Oregon coast.  As this relays onboard... should the consolidating around NW/more potency continue...  I'm wondering if data assimilation overall are/have been compromising around the pattern change into +d(PNAP).  As I was just mentioning to Brooklynwx99 ... these guidance have not really be very representative of this latter aspect.  The correction vectoring has always pointed toward more in this situation.  Doesn't mean it will happen, just that we should be looking for more.

[mahk_webstah]

You know, it is not uncommon for these things to show big a week out back off and then slowly trend closer to the big outcome.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You know, it is not uncommon for these things to show big a week out back off and then slowly trend closer to the big outcome.

It also goes the other way...  but weenies crossed

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We had a 2 hour delayu for a PD day.  In my 23+ years I don't ever recall that happening.  This is great!

Very nice for you.
 

Funny two Wednesday’s in a row here with delays…we take. 

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks solid for SNE 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

ICON/GEM/UKIE all notable hits here. GFS getting suppressed the most violently by the northern stream. 

Overall a good start to 12z for EMA/RI

Better for se MA, but not bad for E MA.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think all solutions have a non-standard chance of both more mechanical power/deeper low, and also repositioning NW ... These runs may just be the beginning of sniffing that out.  

ICON shows you don't know to have it move ideally along the quintessential climate route, because the idiosyncrasy of this system's surrounding synoptic circumstance has a long fetch easterly anomaly blowin' all the way at ALB whilst the low is actually 300 M S of ISP. It moves maybe 150 mi (?) close approach to ACK, but that E wind anomaly and some modest mid level jet support is enough to spread moderate snows clear to almost RUT VT.

GGEM has this same exact conceptual aspect going on, just slightly yet SE of the ICON. 

GFS... hm... thing is, I am singularly impressed with the improvements ( not kidding here) I've noticed with the GFS since this last upgrade;  that said, I still detect that of all plausibly faster solutions that are not being physically violated, it tends to hang out with that group.  A situation like this is delicate... it needs not have the N/stream rushed into it like a not-so-charming wedding crasher.

UKMET is beginning ( perhaps ...) to sniff the NW trend.   

Haven't seen the Euro but it was a warm zonked solution yesterday at least on one cycle.... I'm noticing that the BL in these other guidance is ticking down as the cycles tick sooner.  I don't hold a warm solution against any guidance source, at 120 hours, in this hemispheric circumstance ..

While all this is happening, the governing wave mechanics are just now nearing the Washington/Oregon coast.  As this relays onboard... should the consolidating around NW/more potency continue...  I'm wondering if data assimilation overall are/have been compromising around the pattern change into +d(PNAP).  As I was just mentioning to Brooklynwx99 ... these guidance have not really be very representative of this latter aspect.  The correction vectoring has always pointed toward more in this situation.  Doesn't mean it will happen, just that we should be looking for more.

Hope so 

[mahk_webstah]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It also goes the other way...  but weenies crossed

Of course. But tippy lays out a good case.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree John, with the ridge out west its probably ultimately not a bad thing that we saw these seaward solutions in the medium range because it will probably amp up again.

[CoastalWx]

Lets amp it up when it's not -1C at 850. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Nobody posts the Meteocentre maps anymore so here's a little throwback GGEM

[George001]

deeper low? How much deeper are we talking here, 980s? If so, we may need to have an open mind towards 1 foot+ solutions if that does indeed happen.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Nobody posts the Meteocentre maps anymore so here's a little throwback GGEM

It’s always fun when a weenie misinterprets mm for inches

[NorEastermass128]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets amp it up when it's not -1C at 850. 

What’s your problem with -1C at 850?  I’m sure it will be fine for mostly snow just away from the immediate coast.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I’m more interested in Thurs/Fri model runs for this one. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s always fun when a weenie misinterprets mm for inches

GEM has 10-15" for CT!

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m more interested in Thurs/Fri model runs for this one. 

I'd agree with that. It's kind of funny to see some people calling this a wife or just taking one model and calling it dung lol. There is no set solution as we have some with a real nice hit and we have some with a light event. The trends on all the model runs seem to be better than worse however and I would agree that Thursday Friday model runs will be more telling in what will be happening Sunday into Monday. There's nothing to write off, but I'll agree that it's no blockbuster at this moment. The fact that there's something should be a good thing for everybody on here ( Winterwolf was right in saying that we can't really take any model and run with it at this point ).

Let's see what happens in the next few days people.

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF continues slowing the vort down and amping it up... better PNA ridge initially is likely the culprit

slower is better as the northern stream has a better chance to catch up

[H2Otown_WX]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF continues slowing the vort down and amping it up... better PNA ridge initially is likely the culprit

slower is better as the northern stream has a better chance to catch up

That confluence looks awful