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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Prismshine Productions
Prismshine Productions

Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

dryslot
dryslot

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

dendrite
dendrite

ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah its really unstable aloft with the ULL/trough almost over us and at the sfc, we have a bit of an inverted trough producing some slight convergence helping form a few bands....and the colder advection at 925/850 is producing the OES on the south shore/Cape.

I know it looks innocuous on radar but right now it’s increased again to moderate . It only lasts a few minutes and then lightens . I’m not sure I’ve seen something here like this before. 
xBsgY7y.mp4

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I've got no issue with Tip starting the next "threat thread" but for the love of God, start it with a different word from "Monitoring." We have like a half inch combined from the last two that started with that word :axe:

well to be fair, he starts the threads like 6 weeks in advance (sarcasm) so about all we can do is "monitor"

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Today is very reminiscent of what went wrong last year. steady snow all day but only a dusting to show for. tapping into a very mediocre cold source

Temps will slowly fall. You should accumulate towards evening as long as it snows.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted

Snowfall totals for CT, thanks to everyone for the reports. Below is our final call map which was even more conservative than our first call map, everything got pulled up and in. Overall it lines up pretty well. The 3-6" range was mostly close to the bottom end of that range for far N CT. I'll give it an A- 

I'll post the Southern New England map later on today when i finish it. 

01_29.24_jdj_ct_snowfall_totals.thumb.jpg.354c822b8e7153aceae4aa36e0c5cdde.jpg

01_27.24_jdj_ct_snowfall_forecast_update_2.thumb.jpg.546efd3ea81fbfc15f3ddc64d087bde9.jpg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
2 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I've got no issue with Tip starting the next "threat thread" but for the love of God, start it with a different word from "Monitoring." We have like a half inch combined from the last two that started with that word :axe:

I wanted to get back and change both recent titles actually, but during the course of both run-up week(s) I was bombed at work; and so it not really being a huge priority in anyone's life ( certainly should not be),  I didn't find the time do so - oh well.

That said, I don't typically use the word "threat," anyway.  Not a big fan of that expression. I feel/suspect it is used ( if unconsciously ) to lean everything in a euphoria pitch. I like talking about prospects more dispassionately than that. 

I refer to 'periods of interest,' and then if those coalesce more coherently, 'signals' is warranted.    I find that tact to be necessarily neutral enough.  I am aware that I do reasonably well at diagnosing these events in the D6-10 range - not my first rodeo and have been told this over the years.  NO, one cannot guarantee therein who gets the 8" and who "suffers" with 3" ...  But the confidences of those, this season so far, have worked out well being set at medium for good reasons  -I'm satisfied with the verification on both.   But therein lies some responsibility not to inflate using dialogue that contributes to that euphoria thing people have created out of weather modeling graphics-engagement.  Which I frankly am not even sure that is healthy -

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wanted to get back and change both recent titles actually, but during the course of both run-up week(s) I was bombed at work; and so it not really being a huge priority in anyone's life ( certainly should not be),  I didn't find the time do so - oh well.

That said, I don't typically use the word "threat," anyway.  Not a big fan of that expression. I feel/suspect it is used ( if unconsciously ) to lean everything in a euphoria pitch. I like talking about prospects more dispassionately than that. 

I refer to 'periods of interest,' and then if those coalesce more coherently, 'signals' is warranted.    I find that tact to be necessarily neutral enough.  I am aware that I do reasonably well at diagnosing these events in the D6-10 range - not my first rodeo and have been told this over the years.  NO, one cannot guarantee therein who gets the 8" and who "suffers" with 3" ...  But the confidences of those, this season so far, have worked out well being set at medium for good reasons  -I'm satisfied with the verification on both.   But therein lies some responsibility not to inflate using dialogue that contributes to that euphoria thing people have created out of weather modeling graphics-engagement.  Which I frankly am not even sure that is healthy -

Don't change a thing! I know some members here did not get snow, some got bonus surprises , I will take my 4.25" of snow and run with it,  I thought I was going to be at 30" after this event, but looked at my chart I keep and I am at 26.5" going into Feb. who knows I could be off an inch here or there, etc. For snow enthusiasts its always great when you and others sniff out potential, yes, no guarantee , but the chase sometimes is just as fun (sometimes haha) hopefully on to the next signal!

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wanted to get back and change both recent titles actually, but during the course of both run-up week(s) I was bombed at work; and so it not really being a huge priority in anyone's life ( certainly should not be),  I didn't find the time do so - oh well.

That said, I don't typically use the word "threat," anyway.  Not a big fan of that expression. I feel/suspect it is used ( if unconsciously ) to lean everything in a euphoria pitch. I like talking about prospects more dispassionately than that. 

I refer to 'periods of interest,' and then if those coalesce more coherently, 'signals' is warranted.    I find that tact to be necessarily neutral enough.  I am aware that I do reasonably well at diagnosing these events in the D6-10 range - not my first rodeo and have been told this over the years.  NO, one cannot guarantee therein who gets the 8" and who "suffers" with 3" ...  But the confidences of those, this season so far, have worked out well being set at medium for good reasons  -I'm satisfied with the verification on both.   But therein lies some responsibility not to inflate using dialogue that contributes to that euphoria thing people have created out of weather modeling graphics-engagement.  Which I frankly am not even sure that is healthy -

No worries man, I greatly appreciate your insight. We're very lucky to have someone as knowledgeable as you on the board. I was kind of tongue in cheek about the word monitoring being bad luck lol. Thanks for the response.

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, 512high said:

Don't change a thing! I know some members here did not get snow, some got bonus surprises , I will take my 4.25" of snow and run with it,  I thought I was going to be at 30" after this event, but looked at my chart I keep and I am at 26.5" going into Feb. who knows I could be off an inch here or there, etc. For snow enthusiasts its always great when you and others sniff out potential, yes, no guarantee , but the chase sometimes is just as fun (sometimes haha) hopefully on to the next signal!

Hopefully we can double our seasons totals in one big storm, PDIII has a nice ring.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

This is why I like living up here and this is why I like snow pack. Frankly, it’s better when the pack is only 10 to 15 inches like it is today because it’s easier to create a trail for walking.
off the back of our property I can walk about a quarter of a mile up to a hill at over 800 feet and I get this amazing view. Of course I have my constant companion with me. The zoomed in photograph to the distant area is north north east. Somewhere over there is Dendriteland and the chickens

IMG_0823.jpeg

IMG_0822.jpeg

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NotSureWeather

NotSureWeather

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall totals for CT, thanks to everyone for the reports. Below is our final call map which was even more conservative than our first call map, everything got pulled up and in. Overall it lines up pretty well. The 3-6" range was mostly close to the bottom end of that range for far N CT. I'll give it an A- 

I'll post the Southern New England map later on today when i finish it. 

01_29.24_jdj_ct_snowfall_totals.thumb.jpg.354c822b8e7153aceae4aa36e0c5cdde.jpg

01_27.24_jdj_ct_snowfall_forecast_update_2.thumb.jpg.546efd3ea81fbfc15f3ddc64d087bde9.jpg

Wow great job!

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Angus

Angus

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Did you skin it this morning? 

Yup. I made the observation this morning on the board that I had expected more snow at Wachusett but felt like there was only 6-7" at the summit. I've only skinned 4x this year so far...Twice in December and it was depressing. The predominant sound was running water on the hill but I went last Wednesday and this morning and both times there has been snow falling and it has been quite nice.

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