Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

FWIW, the 00z ICON looks nearly identical to the 18z.

REGGIE does, too.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

REGGIE does, too.

Whoa, now don't sell it too short. the 18z spat out 4" at my location. The 00z? 5". Incredibly thrilling stuff.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

Impressive resolution on that map, circled mylocation, right in the snow death valley of Southbury...quite impressive

That’s the first thing I saw too lol. This could be like this past March. I get a soaked 3” while you struggle with mangled flakes. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

Impressive resolution on that map, circled mylocation, right in the snow death valley of Southbury...quite impressive

That is quite the little bastard of a valley there.

[JKEisMan]

Does anyone know what this model is and why it exists?

[NotSureWeather]

1 minute ago, JKEisMan said:

Does anyone know what this model is and why it exists?

Copium?

[NotSureWeather]

2 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Does anyone know what this model is and why it exists?

Looks like it’s related to the hrrr

[JKEisMan]

2 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Looks like it’s related to the hrrr

Yeah found this :

Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Does anyone know what this model is and why it exists?

It has its own model derived snow totals. Toss the 10:1.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

6 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Does anyone know what this model is and why it exists?

Sounds like an experimental convection allowing model that is currently being trialed/tested. Presumably it exists because they are attempting to build better models for the future. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z GFS is a slight improvement from the 18z for most people, but nothing really that'll blow your hair back.

[Spanks45]

36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s the first thing I saw too lol. This could be like this past March. I get a soaked 3” while you struggle with mangled flakes. 

Might push you over 10 at least for the year...despite the clown look, I could almost go all in on nothing but mangled flakes before the dryslot moves in. The hill that I can see from my deck will probably be plastered white

[Cuteirishgirl25]

https://x.com/eweather13/status/1751454790431784981?s=46&t=Y3ICRnzOhtk67YmRQyZssQ

[RedSky]

39 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Yeah found this :

Within the NOAA model unification effort, the RRFS represents the evolution of the NAM, RAP, HRRR, and HREF systems to a new unified deterministic and ensemble storm-scale system. This new system is targeted for initial operational implementation in late 2024 as a planned replacement for the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF. While the standalone regional (SAR) FV3 model is being developed for convection-allowing forecasting of a limited area (CONUS), other possible components of the RRFS are being tested now in the experimental, WRF-based High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE). 

Omg they have created the Frankenstein model do they know what they have done

[MegaMike]

Consider the RRFS an ensemble consisting of multiple (9 members + 1 deterministic) high-resolution (3km) simulations on a constant grid (unlike the HREF and NBM).

In other words, it's similar to the HREF, but without any post-processing... The HREF requires post-processing since its ensemble members have various domain configurations (which is a bit taboo). Based on < https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs >, it's set to replace the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF modeling systems.

Besides what I mentioned above, the lateral boundary conditions come from the GFS (control) and the GEFS (members). All share the same core (FV3). Currently, they're testing a bunch of different options to improve the initial conditions (data assimilation) of the RRFS. Overall, it sounds like it'll be a significant improvement over the HREF and NBM once the RRFS becomes operational (and well tested).

Note: I can't find much on the RRFS' performance... Based on what I've seen so far,  It performs better in terms of reflectivity detection < https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/vancil/rrfs-hwt.pdf >

[dmcginvt]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My one year old will not stop shitting molten lava....holy off topic, but the poor kid's a$$....yikes, the joys of parenthood.....maybe I'll soothe his wounds with my Final Call map on Monday.

There was nothing worse than when they have an explosive shit that goes out of the diaper up their whole back and then dries while they are sleeping.  Oh the days I dont miss, literally need a brillo pad to get that shit off

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Consider the RRFS an ensemble consisting of multiple (9 members + 1 deterministic) high-resolution (3km) simulations on a constant grid (unlike the HREF and NBM).

In other words, it's similar to the HREF, but without any post-processing... The HREF requires post-processing since its ensemble members have various domain configurations (which is a bit taboo). Based on < https://gsl.noaa.gov/focus-areas/unified_forecast_system/rrfs >, it's set to replace the NAMnest, HRRR, HiResWindows, and HREF modeling systems.

Besides what I mentioned above, the lateral boundary conditions come from the GFS (control) and the GEFS (members). All share the same core (FV3). Currently, they're testing a bunch of different options to improve the initial conditions (data assimilation) of the RRFS. Overall, it sounds like it'll be a significant improvement over the HREF and NBM once the RRFS becomes operational (and well tested).

Note: I can't find much on the RRFS' performance... Based on what I've seen so far,  It performs better in terms of reflectivity detection < https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/vancil/rrfs-hwt.pdf >

Appreciate someone chiming in with an actual answer, thanks!

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

UKMET big improvement for the CNE crowd. Glad to have that powerhouse on our side.

[8611Blizz]

5 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

UKMET big improvement for the CNE crowd. Glad to have that powerhouse on our side.

If that is correct you'll see people in CT wading into the ocean to end their pain...

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

If that is correct you'll see people in CT wading into the ocean to end their pain...

Can't guarantee people won't be wading into the ocean come Monday, but I can assure you that the UKMET will not be correct. 

[MegaMike]

23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Omg they have created the Frankenstein model do they know what they have done

The HREF is a Frankenstein model since it requires post-processing to obtain fields on a constant grid. It's not a standard modeling system like the HRRR, NAM, GFS, etc...

NWP requires a lot of static/time varying fields to run atmospheric simulations: vegetation type, elevation height, ice coverage, etc... By interpolating data onto a grid (or even transforming a horizontal datum), you degrade model accuracy since this information is lost.

The HREF exists simply because we created a high-resolution ensemble with what we currently have.

[MegaMike]

19 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Appreciate someone chiming in with an actual answer, thanks!

No problem, friend! 

I run simulations fairly regularly so I thought I'd chime in 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Just now, MegaMike said:

No problem, friend! 

I run simulations fairly regularly so I thought I'd chime in 

Out of curiosity, are these models developed by NWS or NCEP or whatever government guys, or is there a fair amount of contractor support?

[MegaMike]

Just to be clear, the HREF and NBM are great tools (I specifically use them for precipitation forecasting), however, we can do better. 

[MegaMike]

1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Out of curiosity, are these models developed by NWS or NCEP or whatever government guys, or is there a fair amount of contractor support?

I published a paper for the EPA regarding an air quality modeling system/data truncation, but I haven't collaborated with NCEP on atmospheric models/simulations.

I do have experience with a bunch of different modeling systems though (in order): ADCIRC (storm surge), SWAN (wave height), WRF-ARW (atmospheric and air quality), UPP (atmospheric post-processor), CMAQ (air quality), ISAM (air quality partitioning), RAMS ( atmospheric), ICLAMS (legacy atmospheric model).

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

4 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

I published a paper for the EPA regarding an air quality modeling system/data truncation, but I haven't collaborated with NCEP on atmospheric models/simulations.

I do have experience with a bunch of different modeling systems though (in order): ADCIRC (storm surge), SWAN (wave height), WRF-ARW (atmospheric and air quality), UPP (atmospheric post-processor), CMAQ (air quality), ISAM (air quality partitioning), RAMS ( atmospheric), ICLAMS (legacy atmospheric model).

Well, I certainly appreciate what you guys do. I can't even begin to imagine how difficult it is to sit down to develop some sort of model that attempts to deterministically predict what is going to happen in the atmosphere of an extremely dynamic planet. The number of moving parts boggles the mind. You guys get way too little love. I'm even guilty of it - making fun of weather models that took many people much smarter than I to develop, test, and run. Thanks again!

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z Euro is fairly anemic, especially to the east (in terms of snow). Really only favors the Berkshires and the southern Greens.

[The 4 Seasons]

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sarcasm, @The 4 Seasons

So was the emoji. I'm one of those who throws around emoji reactions all nilly willy anyway so I wouldn't read to much into them 

Anyway rain has commenced, 39F hope yall northern folk do OK

[ineedsnow]

Warning up but not thinking it will be anything great here

[Johnno]

Woke up and checked the radar looks like one hellacious thump in bound… of rain