Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Massplow]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's a very tough call...real PITA storm. I am banking on that area stealing a couple to a few inches based on the slight elevation and being far enough south to get the good lift. Will I be surprised if they get next to nothing?

No.

I hear ya very tough call, I’ll be trying to keep up with the posts here to see how it plays out. Tough call as always for calling out plows. Thank you for the efforts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

It’s going to be 35-36, I’m not getting 4 either. 

Why don't you go make a map and leave me alone.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Still a relatively torchy 39 here in the valley.  

[Thunderblizzard]

Don't see a world where the HRRR/RAP verifies but they're certainly insistent. 22z RAP looked pretty absurd in southern CT too.

[ORH_wxman]

I’m not that optimistic on the front end thump. Feel like best shot at accums is the CCB stuff even if it’s not heavy…it will at least have a colder column. Easier to accumulate at 32-33 when 925 is like -2 or -3 than isothermal. 
 

But it’s admittedly a real tough call because heavy rates will trump a lot of issues. The problem is you can’t guarantee heavy rates. Can we get 0.2” per hour QPF? Maybe. But there’s a huge difference between that and like 0.08-0.12 per hour. 

[SouthCoastMA]

33/31 here

I think 1-3" is a good range for the coast. leaning closer to 1" for mby

[George001]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why don't you go make a map and leave me alone.

You want me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, fair enough. I’m going to call for 1-2 inches of snow here, a coating in Boston, 2-3 for you, 3-5 for Worcester. In Western Mass I’ll go 6-8 (elevation). I don’t think anyone is sniffing double digits with this putrid airmass. If I’m wrong, I’ll own it.

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

You’d be incorrect . But it’s tight . That’s why we are leaning low at 3-6 “ with round 1

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, George001 said:

You want me to put my money where my mouth is? Yeah, fair enough. I’m going to call for 1-2 inches of snow here, a coating in Boston, 2-3 for you, 3-5 for Worcester. In Western Mass I’ll go 6-8 (elevation). I don’t think anyone is sniffing double digits with this putrid airmass.

Even the European positive depth change map has you at 2". Maybe I should have added another range and not have 4-7" encompass such a large area, but forecasters give ranges for 2 reasons. Not only to convey potential of reaching a certain number at a given location, but also for the purpose of encompassing a large area in which different locales will fall into said range. Common sense dictates that if you are on the se edge of a large area of 4-7", then the map probably implying that you will be closer to 4" than 7".

[UnitedWx]

Just dropped to 36 here. We'll see how much more it'll drop by morning

[kdxken]

21 minutes ago, Massplow said:

How confident are you in your amounts in the Foxboro area? Comparing to the box map they have close to nothing

When in doubt go with box. No slight meant to Ray.

[512high]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even the European positive depth change map has you at 2". Maybe I should have added another range and not have 4-7" encompass such a large area, but forecasters give ranges for 2 reasons. Not only to convey potential of reaching a certain number at a given location, but also for the purpose of growing in larger area in which different locales will fall into said range. Common sense dictates that if you are on the se edge of a large area of 4-7", then the map probably implying that you will be closer to 4" than 7".

I was hoping I would get a 6" snowfall, that would bring me just about to 30"+/- we sit back and see how it plays out, just cover the ground again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have said I am not confident in that map.....so the communication of doubt really isn't warranted. I understand that Mother Nature has and continues to touch you where she shouldn't, but that isn't my fault, so don't project that onto me.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

While not surprising for a model that runs every hour, the 00z HRRR still likes to thump CT

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

When in doubt go with box. No slight meant to Ray.

Of course.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can recall plenty of times that I have taken them to the shed, though.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

43 minutes ago, weathafella said:

How is this euro thump snow in CT?

 

 

 

 

 

31 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

Delusion is running absolutely wild with this storm. People are down bad.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This is a great map, IMO. People setting themselves up for heavy heavy disappointment.

[George001]

Perfect low track in late Jan and we can’t get enough goddamn cold air to snow. Can’t make this shit up. I understand that it’s not going to snow a ton every year, but winter should feel like winter. This shit is not winter.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

3 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

While not surprising for a model that runs every hour, the 00z HRRR still likes to thump CT

Ok, while it's not like I really have any faith in the HRRR in the first place, what it's trying to do right now is nonsense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was conflicted.....the NARCAN maps are are so paltry....part of me wishes I had incorporated them and positive snow depth change more, but sometimes NARCAN  is too conservative. But this is the type of marginal situation where they may just sniff the terd out.

[Damage In Tolland]

Poor TFlizz. When TAN is not in the mix he tries so hard 

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

This will be a period of active weather. Unfortunately, the
critical details still remain uncertain, and the margin for
error is very small. Will be monitoring these details overnight
into Sunday, and likely making further changes to the forecast
as new information arrives.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a great map, IMO. People setting themselves up for heavy heavy disappointment.

I'll take that and run..  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was conflicted.....the NARCAN maps are are so paltry....part of me wishes I had incorporated them and positive snow depth change, but sometimes NARCAN  is too conservative. But this is the type of marginal situation where they may just sniff the terd out.

PF had posted the positive snowfall change maps early today and they were absolutely pathetic, like 1-2” in the good spots.

Obviously it was drowned out because it wasn’t ACATT, but that was pretty eye opening to me. This has “white rain” written all over it in a lot of areas I think, and those maps are pointing that out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is a great map, IMO. People setting themselves up for heavy heavy disappointment.

Part of the discrepancy is them breaking the ranges down into lower denominations than I do....like I expect my area to be more like 4" than 7", so agree there. Big difference is around Kev and Geroge's areas.

[George001]

In all seriousness, it’s ok to be wrong sometimes. I called for areas of 16+ a few days ago, which was incredibly dumb in hindsight. With the temp profile we would need like 3+ inches of QPF for that, which is not supported by any guidance. The storm has trended worse since then, but it was still a dumb call at the time given the setup. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Part of the discrepancy is them breaking the ranges down into lower denominations than I do....like I expect my area to be more like 4" than 7", so agree there. Big difference is around Kev and Geroge's areas.

Let the boy go . The more you engage the more he thinks he’s right 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

PF had posted the positive snowfall change maps early today and they were absolutely pathetic, like 1-2” in the good spots.

Obviously it was drowned out because it wasn’t ACATT, but that was pretty eye opening to me. This has “white rain” written all over it in a lot of areas I think, and those maps are pointing that out.

I can also recall times when I took them as gospel and they were too light. You keep a better personal inventory of this shit when you actually forecast...no offense intended at all...I don't mean that in a disparaging way at all.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not that optimistic on the front end thump. Feel like best shot at accums is the CCB stuff even if it’s not heavy…it will at least have a colder column. Easier to accumulate at 32-33 when 925 is like -2 or -3 than isothermal. 
 

But it’s admittedly a real tough call because heavy rates will trump a lot of issues. The problem is you can’t guarantee heavy rates. Can we get 0.2” per hour QPF? Maybe. But there’s a huge difference between that and like 0.08-0.12 per hour. 

Thump really trending to be ct mass border and south. Whether it’s a thump of rain or snow we will see…

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

The higher res graphics look colder.