Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:26 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Yeah can't see how that could possibly happen in this storm. You've got a fair amount of elevation, right?

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1k 

[mreaves]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:26 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Yeah can't see how that could possibly happen in this storm. You've got a fair amount of elevation, right?

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Just over 900’

[weathafella]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:24 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray has Precip starting  as rain tomorrow and continues . Hi res and GFS/ Euro has thump snow . Maybe they meet in the middle 

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How is this euro thump snow in CT?

 

 

 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

I didn't expect 18z to amp up the front end thump down to the coast.. figured we were way to warm but maybe the rates are helping. 18z HERPES was decent

yes I know, "Don't do it'

 

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:32 AM, weathafella said:

How is this euro thump snow in CT?

 

 

 

 

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maybe not euro but some of the other hi res are showing some thumpage sometime between 14z-19z

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:30 AM, mreaves said:

Just over 900’

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Uh-oh, is someone fudging numbers? That's okay, if it's any indication of the listed verticals of ski resorts around here, you're allowed to make shit up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:24 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray has Precip starting  as rain tomorrow and continues . Hi res and GFS/ Euro has thump snow . Maybe they meet in the middle 

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I could see the hills begin as snow that struggles to stick at first...those simulated RAD images are smoothed.

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:32 AM, weathafella said:

How is this euro thump snow in CT?

 

 

 

 

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That's thumping rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/27/2024 at 11:58 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z a bit better for sure with the front end thump for SNE

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@weathafellaits isothermal so you can’t just look and assume rain 

[JKEisMan]

What the hell is this ?

[ORH_wxman]

It’s almost totally isothermal at 0C so the ptype maps are snow even if 850 temps are technically above 0C. But it’s prob like 0.2C or something. It’s close. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:41 AM, JKEisMan said:

What the hell is this ?

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Some are saying thumping rain . So not sure 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:41 AM, JKEisMan said:

What the hell is this ?

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A legacy model that runs off vibes.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too 

[dryslot]

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

[JKEisMan]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:43 AM, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

A legacy model that runs off vibes.

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Hrrr looking similar…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:44 AM, dryslot said:

Same hr map Jerry posted, hr 27 on the 18z Euro @H85, 0/+2c, This is not snow.

 

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It’s isothermal on euro wb shows it 

[JKEisMan]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:44 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Idk it’s getting interesting I’m seeing a lot of evidence for a positive bust in CT. The hi res stuff like rap and hrrr won’t give up on the intense thump here. I’m already down to 34.9 colder than guidance had too 

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Would be nice to see positive bust for once

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:45 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s isothermal on euro wb shows it 

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925mb was marginal too on SV, I don't have access to WB

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:44 AM, JKEisMan said:

Hrrr looking similar…

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Well, it's not showing quite that much, lol. And the HRRR can be questionable at times too. Although it's shown the thump for quite a few runs now.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:48 AM, dryslot said:

925mb was marginal too on SV, I don't have access to WB

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It’s all isothermal lol so close 

[Massplow]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:13 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-sunday-monday-low-to.html

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How confident are you in your amounts in the Foxboro area? Comparing to the box map they have close to nothing

[tavwtby]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:42 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s almost totally isothermal at 0C so the ptype maps are snow even if 850 temps are technically above 0C. But it’s prob like 0.2C or something. It’s close. 
 

 

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what's that like 1.5- 2"/hr rates for a few hours, if the thermals cooperate, otherwise we waste the thump on white rain or plain rain

[dryslot]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:49 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s all isothermal lol so close 

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Yup, Real close.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:49 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s all isothermal lol so close 

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So close. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:50 AM, Massplow said:

How confident are you in your amounts in the Foxboro area? Comparing to the box map they have close to nothing

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It's a very tough call...real PITA storm. I am banking on that area stealing a couple to a few inches based on the slight elevation and being far enough south to get the good lift. Will I be surprised if they get next to nothing?

No.

[George001]

If I actually get 7 inches I’ll eat my socks. You cannot snow without cold air.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:55 AM, George001 said:

If I actually get 7 inches I’ll eat my socks. You cannot snow without cold air.

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You are exactly the type of person that focuses on the highest number...look at the arial coverage of that snowfall range....what a moronic post.

[George001]

  On 1/28/2024 at 12:56 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are exactly the type of person that focuses on the highest number...look at the arial coverage of that snowfall range....what a moronic post.

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It’s going to be 35-36, I’m not getting 4 either. I’m going to double down on that post…. I’ll eat my socks if I get over 4 inches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 4-7" raps around from the CT RV, through the hills of N CT and RI and into interior MA....you tell me who you think has a the best shot at the upper end of that range?