HinghamBoss Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 How helpful are the HREF snowfall products? Know they are an ensemble of other models. trend seems a bit snowier around these parts, but not sure if that is a function of the models that drive the output (eg HRRR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Haven't had time to get caught up on this System since very early this morning one thing I've noticed here in Westfield just that it was 42 degrees back at 10:30 am and it's down to 38.5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 6:50 PM, HinghamBoss said: How helpful are the HREF snowfall products? Know they are an ensemble of other models. trend seems a bit snowier around these parts, but not sure if that is a function of the models that drive the output (eg HRRR). Expand Don’t buy it. Probably HRRR driven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 5:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: Nam Mos is 4 mthfers here Expand Elevation helps, I will be lucky to see 2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 classic spring slopper 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 The elephant in the room: temperatures are well above normal in NNE to the Canadian border. Not what sne wants to see the day before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:11 PM, weathafella said: The elephant in the room: temperatures are well above normal in NNE to the Canadian border. Not what sne wants to see the day before a storm. Expand Yup, this is mostly rain for most outside of the hilly terrain. Oh well. The woman and I are heading out soon for some drinks and some dinner…life goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 18z nam is better Monday morning in central and eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:11 PM, weathafella said: The elephant in the room: temperatures are well above normal in NNE to the Canadian border. Not what sne wants to see the day before a storm. Expand I think That was modeled well . We needed rates for first 1/2 of tubs anyway . This thing just never seems to organize well anymore . Many runs had a 6 hour period of .5+ QPF after 0z for areas N of pike into SNH . That appears gone as does the CCB so lol ..we take em down and see if this reverses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:17 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z nam is better Monday morning in central and eastern areas. Expand Actually gets a hint of a CCB going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: Actually gets a hint of a CCB going. Expand Yeah nothing crazy, but verbatim some better banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Can the NAM lead the way with this thing? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:17 PM, CoastalWx said: 18z nam is better Monday morning in central and eastern areas. Expand Nam is 1” QPF pike south .5 QPF line rides NH/Ma border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:27 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nam is 1” QPF pike south .5 QPF line rides NH/Ma border Expand How much if that 1” is frozen…I wonder? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:33 PM, WinterWolf said: How much if that 1” is frozen…I wonder? Expand I think that’s a good question lol Head to Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 How’s thump in CT? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 8:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: How’s thump in CT? Expand Strong thump … of rain? Nowcast IMO I could see 0/3/6 in your area. Would give 33% chance of each verifying. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2 same trend CT/RI do well (away from immediate coast ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:06 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2 same trend CT/RI do well Expand That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:10 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done Expand Gonna be close in the hills down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Forecast has been edging things north over the past 2 days. GYX' POP from the most recent 3 forecast periods here went from 30% to 50%, now 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:10 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gonna be close in the hills down there Expand If it was 2 degrees colder man…. Some nearby towns have 800-1000’ elevations I wonder if they can sneak out a miracle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:12 PM, tamarack said: Forecast has been edging things north over the past 2 days. GYX' POP from the most recent 3 forecast periods here went from 30% to 50%, now 70%. Expand They trend looks done since 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:06 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2 same trend CT/RI do well (away from immediate coast ) Expand Some solid trends today as Messenger shuffle started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:05 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Strong thump … of rain? Nowcast IMO I could see 0/3/6 in your area. Would give 33% chance of each verifying. Expand I think you’ll be adjusting that map south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:13 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: If it was 2 degrees colder man…. Some nearby towns have 800-1000’ elevations I wonder if they can sneak out a miracle. Expand Seems like elevation won't matter unless you're north of HFD. Euro 850s are toasty most of the event except the mid level stuff that develops which I'm guessing is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I think you’ll be adjusting that map south Expand Just adjusted it north. But it’s a zero confidence forecast. If we get some more shuffles and a trend that’s our friend then I’ll adjust south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 Interesting sounding here from the 18z NAM. I don't think we'll quite get it done but it's close: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:31 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Just adjusted it north. But it’s a zero confidence forecast. If we get some more shuffles and a trend that’s our friend then I’ll adjust south. Expand I think 3-6” is a good forecast for anyone above 700-800 feet in the state . There also could be 1-3” Monday in addition statewide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2024 Share Posted January 27, 2024 On 1/27/2024 at 9:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I think 3-6” is a good forecast for anyone above 700-800 feet in the state . There also could be 1-3” Monday in addition statewide Expand Everything is trending north . Enjoy 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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