Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It might be the most realistic. 

yup this stuff will be wet for sure

[Hailstoned]

37 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

That's right I forgot about  Dec 1981 that was another big one here. March 1984 turned to rain so we had about 3 inches of cement and yeah Feb 1989 was big on the Cape for sure.

Feb. 88 featured a good one out here in the B-Town/Amherst area.

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z UKMET

[Snowcrazed71]

Well... It's safe to say that all the models have agreed to push the snow north..more into Massachusetts.... For Connecticut.... I really only see the higher elevations of northwestern and northeastern getting any decent accumulation. Even where I am West of Hartford I think will be mostly a slopfest without much accumulation 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Very similar to 12z , just a bit less juiced 

Keep in mind the 12z started the run with a bunch of imaginary snow already accumulated in central NH.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Keep in mind the 12z started the run with a bunch imaginary snow already accumulated in central NH.

Actually when I looked at QPF this was more juiced than 12z

the 925 temps were a touch milder at 0z Monday but I was surprised clown weren’t juicier given a bit more QPF

 

[jaf]

Looks like there's nothing worth tracking south of the RI/MA border

[40/70 Benchmark]

I ran the 00z GEM from my basement....slight se shift. Jacks my old hood in Wilmington with just over a foot.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I ran the 00z GEM from my basement....slight se shift. Jacks my old hood in Wilmington with just over a foot.

I think the latitude of the mid level goodies would be a little more tilted SW to NE but either way you good to go on this one.  I feel like 7-8" for you and cement 4-6" for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think the latitude of the mid level goodies would be a little more tilted SW to NE but either way you good to go on this one.  I feel like 7-8" for you and cement 4-6" for me.

Well, the mid levels get cranking late and there is some deep layer easterly flow, so that is probably why its a bit less in the valley.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO is a bit worse all around...really sucks for my area.

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO is a bit worse all around...really sucks for my area.

It’s actually better for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It’s actually better for me.

Maybe per 10:1, but not otherwise. Actually, it isn't at all....not via WxBell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't buy that odd hole over my area, but if it happens, it happens.

[weathafella]

This “storm” has tremendous downside potential.  It really hasn’t shown the ability to deliver a consolidated region wide hit so there can be a ton of meh.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't like the banded/blob runs...its the guidance conveying that the mid level dynamics are marginal. Euro just pulled that shit again.

[wxsniss]

Almost exactly 2 years ago...

Not sure whether the string of ratters for eastern SNE truly represents changing climate or about the AGW attribution, and I dug up the above as a reminder (to myself lol) that classic blockbuster KUs do still happen, and recently.

I've sat out this upcoming storm... busy week + I refuse to dignify what will likely be 1-3" glop in MBY with piecemeal dynamics + garbage soundings + a warm BL.

This system reminds me a bit of the 1/7/24 system waiting for a CCB to cool our BL, except that prior system had a more robust CCB and colder 925-850s. And when the CF moved through, we had 4 hours of magic. Not expecting that Monday.

Still keeping hope Feb/Mar can salvage what has been a brutal season for Boston metro area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Almost exactly 2 years ago...

Not sure whether the string of ratters for eastern SNE truly represents changing climate or about the AGW attribution, and I dug up the above as a reminder (to myself lol) that classic blockbuster KUs do still happen, and recently.

I've sat out this upcoming storm... busy week + I refuse to dignify what will likely be 1-3" glop in MBY with piecemeal dynamics + garbage soundings + a warm BL.

This system reminds me a bit of the 1/7/24 system waiting for a CCB to cool our BL, except that prior system had a more robust CCB and colder 925-850s. And when the CF moved through, we had 4 hours of magic. Not expecting that Monday.

Still keeping hope Feb/Mar can salvage what has been a brutal season for Boston metro area.

January 7 was three times better than Jan 30, 2022 IMBY....not close.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, you can see how this pattern can make someone want to extract their eyeballs with a pair of tweezers........big ULL buries itself in the SE next week and slides out to sea fast enough to not interact with the diving  N stream, which then blows up too late and murders the Maritimes next weekend with a new ULL posted to bury itself in the SE again. 

Hate to say it but I think that is what makes the most sense...its the kind of sequence that can make one long for spring.

[H2Otown_WX]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, you can see how this pattern can make someone want to extract their eyeballs with a pair of tweezers........big ULL buries itself in the SE next week and slides out to sea fast enough to not interact with the diving  N stream, which then blows up too late and murders the Maritimes next weekend with a new ULL posted to bury itself in the SE again. 

Hate to say it but I think that is what makes the most sense...its the kind of sequence that can make one long for spring.

Admitting defeat to @qg_omega?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

euro op just need to look at a QPF comparison from route 2 north into CNE . Significantly less by about 1/4 to 1/3. Who knows

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

January 7 was three times better than Jan 30, 2022 IMBY....not close.

Same here... I HATED that storm.  Four inches of Arctic sand

[The 4 Seasons]

This is gotta be the most ridiculous 10:1 clown I've ever seen. Can't wait for my 15" 

Euro ticked north/warmer as expected. Still expecting 0-0 here so I guess it's irrelevant. 

 

 

[JKEisMan]

29 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is gotta be the most ridiculous 10:1 clown I've ever seen. Can't wait for my 15" 

Euro ticked north/warmer as expected. Still expecting 0-0 here so I guess it's irrelevant. 

 

 

Nam also more south. Of course 3k different and not much until you get north of I-90.

[Roger Smith]

I don't currently see the potential for snow as depicted except over VT and west of river as boundary layer will be 35-40 F with rain over e ma, RI and CT almost to end of precip. Looking at PA now, still 45-50 F in that portion of circulation, not in warm sector but between fronts, and cold air is so far north in Canada and high just doesn't have any ability to push lower dewpoints into moisture band staying so far north. You know I'm going to predict as much snow as possible in any given situation but I am not keen on this one. Yes it will finish off with 2-4" in places. But it's going to keep raining longer than some of the guidance would suggest. (unless the guidance is basically wrong about thermals). No idea why some models are showing as much snow as they do. 

I hope I am wrong and you get a good snowfall. It could be 6-10 inches in a few higher spots in s VT and w ma. Would go with 0.50" to 1.00" rain and 2-4" snow at end of storm event otherwise, Tr to 2" in se ma and coastal CT-RI, Long Island. 

maine and nh could see a little better results, 3-6" but even so, rain to start. The danger sign is that 534-540 dm thickness ribbon on RGEm is way too far north to support a good snowfall event.

[moneypitmike]

watches up.......i'm not biting.

[Prismshine Productions]

WPC being bullish

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Prismshine Productions]

WPC % 2/4/8/12

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[Modfan2]

How much rain will we see here in CT?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

WPC % 2/4/8/12

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

That is overly bullish . It’s basically in line with box map. 4-6” Nw side of 495 2-4” 128-495 and 6-8” In monads . It also shifted north into S VT and Monads as it was prior posting best into Berks and N orh county . Big flags for lower elevations as 925’s have tickled a tad milder on some guidance and by the time they cool it’s more of a parting shot