Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

End of NAM

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Storm is just sort of getting crushed ESE as confluence picks up over SE Canada on many of these runs . The mid levels open up as it traverses upper mid Atlantic to S of New England on many 

The 0z euro seemed like a best case and actually strengthened mid levels last moment and sort of pivoted slowed as it did 

I would say it would take a small miracle to get Maine good with this unless confluence is way over modeled 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not great on the NAM. Not how you want to start of 12z

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A suboptimal 105" instead of an optimal 120" in 2015 

Such is life when you have a high end (for same) climo.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I wonder if NW RI is a sneaky spot for this event assuming it comes far enough north 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Such is life when you have a high end (for same) climo.

I would wager to say he is well ahead of most of us realtive to climo over the past 8 years or so.....I can crunch the numbers later if he would like to supply them.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

GFS taking the lead here, she’s gone

Looks like it right now

[SouthCoastMA]

Yes 12z NAM at 84 looked like dung..she gone

[Modfan2]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wonder if NW RI is a sneaky spot for this event assuming it comes far enough north 

The zone from N Windham County into NW RI over to Franklin Ma always seems to do well

[STILL N OF PIKE]

So it’s clear we have to Sacrifice Dave 

[DJln491]

Preparing myself for rain followed by a couple inches of slop.  Anything better that that will be a win. 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie kind of amped. Would start many in SNE as rain, but probably better than the NAM outcome. At some point colder air filters in.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Yes 12z NAM at 84 looked like dung..she gone

Lol….84 hr NAM being the determining factor if a storm is gone, is about as pathetic as it can get. You’re kidding …right? 

[CoastalWx]

ICON not bad, but now has no colder air feeding into it. Would be mostly an interior deal.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

ICON not bad, but now has no colder air feeding into it. Would be mostly an interior deal.

Didn't look that bad but it was definitely on the warm side

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Didn't look that bad but it was definitely on the warm side

I'll set the AmWx servers on fire if this is 12hrs of snowflakes at 34F again. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

53 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Regression... it sucks

Didn't you just get a 30" + burger like 10 months ago lmao 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Didn't you just get a 30" + burger like 10 months ago lmao 

As others have said, he’s about the only person that has skirted any kind of regression over the last decade. Always far enough in any direction to do okay.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As others have said, he’s about the only person that has skirted any kind of regression over the last decade. Always far enough in any direction to do okay.

Greta is Coming for him in the 2030’s

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Like I mentioned a few days ago, there are like 8 ways for this to fail and 2 to go right. That icon run is one of the 8 ways to fail. Looks pretty good, but lacking a cold air feed so it ends up mediocre for many.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

...says the one dude who has yet to regress Hopefully that bad has been about paid...

Yeah.  I have been lucky for a bunch of these years... some have sucked for sure even here  2015-16, etc

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Didn't you just get a 30" + burger like 10 months ago lmao 

Nah... just 29.5" 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nah... just 29.5" 

Nice! More than the seasonal total down here 5 of the 6 last seasons ... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

K, my first map is all set....just gonna rip out the narrative and take my pants off before publishing.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Like I mentioned a few days ago, there are like 8 ways for this to fail and 2 to go right. That icon run is one of the 8 ways to fail. Looks pretty good, but lacking a cold air feed so it ends up mediocre for many.

 

Too early and it lacks the cold, too late and it is too far SE.....we need the perfect timing, hopefully we can thread the needle this one time

This Icon run seems to get in here quicker, precip here by Sunday morning

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

If we do end up getting a region-wide warning event on Jan 28-29th it will have been exactly 2 years to the day since the last one in CT.

 

Number 2 all timer for all the right reasons including 9 hrs of blizzard conditions. Epicosity defined.

[HoarfrostHubb]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would wager to say he is well ahead of most of us realtive to climo over the past 8 years or so.....I can crunch the numbers later if he would like to supply them.

Using the data on Kevin W's site, since 2013/2014 I have had 593.7" in 8 seasons.  74.2" per year.  I think I average around 70-75 per year based on Will's stuff, so pretty close to avg.

2019 was 70", 2014 was 68.75  2018 was 52.45, 2016 was 30.5 on the lower end of things

2015 was 111.75, 2017 was 90.75, last season was 87 on the upper end

[MJO812]

Gfs amped

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

End of my interest in Sunday if that is right.

Wut look again

[ineedsnow]

We GFS!

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

We GFS!

The Nellys will find issues...