Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

90th percentile maps?  Why?

Aim high, baby!

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

90th percentile maps?  Why?

To post on social media and hype why else?  On a serious note a good first call range would be 25th to 75th percentile on EPS on say the 12z run if it’s consistent next 3 cycles.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Much better. You’re coming around. 

The difference between us is I like a lot of music . I can bang country to metal to rock to rap . You limit yourself 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

24 hour images don’t account for all the members and their timing differences for the entire duration of the storm. 

Heavy heavy snow 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Will hopefully get an idea tomorrow morning on what we are dealing with and where the tics might go.  Until then it’s just noise.. right now I’d love to be in berks and northern orh hills for this one. Many ways to get it done from those spots. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya like I said earlier we want SE ticks now . No more north ticks ..

Yea this is a precarious flow for anything substantial for wct along 84. There’s a tight window for 6”+, it can happen, but I’ll continue to hedge against it. 

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Man, I see were digging deep into the model bag and some are confused of which runs are which.

So, situation normal. Got it. 

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A good amount of the 18z idv like @dendrite and @dryslot location 

Not buying it until I see an 83rd percentile clown. 

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy snow 

heavy heavy slot there.  glad we here

[Prismshine Productions]

18z Reggie was close to the 18z EPS at hr84, but actually a hair further SW and coiled up, extrap as thy will...

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[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Those probability maps are beefy this far out. 

Yes, it’s pretty rare to see 6”+ that high at d4-5. But I don’t have that type of confidence at all in this one yet like those probs would normally imply. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not buying it until I see an 83rd percentile clown. 

Don’t tempt me 

[Prismshine Productions]

Yes, it’s pretty rare to see 6”+ that high at d4-5. But I don’t have that type of confidence at all in this one yet like those probs would normally imply. 

Is it because the GFS is so ghosty?

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[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Is it because the GFS is so ghosty?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Yeah my confidence in the euro is shook a bit. A few years ago I’d probably be getting pretty gung ho. 

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully this is not a "scraper", ugh. let's bring 'er in

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, it’s pretty rare to see 6”+ that high at d4-5. But I don’t have that type of confidence at all in this one yet like those probs would normally imply. 

Ya those eps probs can waffle dramatically .. tomorrow at this time if it shows the same for your area I’d be pretty excited.. 

[CoastalWx]

It will definitely be rain to start in many areas I think even inland. So in a way, I could buy a widespread hit from N to S. Southern areas will play catch-up as temps drop and CCB gets going for a time. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah my confidence in the euro is shook a bit. A few years ago I’d probably be getting pretty gung ho. 

I agree. I know some say save a horse,  but that same horse has been brought to the glue factory many times over the last few years. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It will definitely be rain to start in many areas I think even inland. So in a way, I could buy a widespread hit from N to S. Southern areas will play catch-up as temps drop and CCB gets going for a time. 

On the euro guidance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Will hopefully get an idea tomorrow morning on what we are dealing with and where the tics might go.  Until then it’s just noise.. right now I’d love to be in berks and northern orh hills for this one. Many ways to get it done from those spots. 

I like my area as lower terrain goes...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like my area as lower terrain goes...

Ya you look golden. Just hope the rug doesn’t get pulled on this one for you guys. Not expecting much if any here as latitude is killing us again this year unfortunately.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya you look golden. Just hope the rug doesn’t get pulled on this one for you guys. Not expecting much if any here as latitude is killing us again this year unfortunately.. 

The La Nina flavor has definitely been present as suspected. 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

heavy heavy slot there.  glad we here

You way too far north .. this is mainly a route 2 south deal 

[CoastalWx]

I mean it’s early to say who looks good or not. This could go either way despite my gut saying more north. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean it’s early to say who looks good or not. This could go either way despite my gut saying more north. 

Well, since you don’t have a scrotum left, all you can do is go with your gut. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hard for me lose with this one, unless it ends up a fish storm. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Next on deck: 0z NAM

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[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hard for me lose with this one, unless it ends up a fish storm. 

Who are you and what have you done with T-Blizz?

[The 4 Seasons]

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not buying it until I see an 83rd percentile clown. 

69th percentile is the most imporant

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Who are you and what have you done with T-Blizz?

Exactly