Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

SE areas might have a bit more upside than some of the lower elevations further west because the CCB will get cranking and eventually turn very cold as it draws in that more arctic airmass....so even if you "Waste" the first half of the storm, you could go to pound-town for 6-10 hours during the CCB with big rates and much colder temps.

It is still a needle-thread idea, but there is some upside there.

Brett says no so it's definitely on

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's starts out putrid but all models show the northern stream infusing cold air by the end. I'm not sold on anything major, but think a few inches is still in play. 

It does definitely get cold at the end, no doubt, but does it happen fast enough. You need an icon like scenario to get warning amounts down here 

[CoastalWx]

Iconic

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The icon really slows this down. More of a Sunday night into Monday deal. That’s probably partially why it shows a big solution.

And there's the upside, unfortunately exhibited on the ICON :0

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty sharp cut off just NW of me on the ICON.

[MJO812]

[PWMan]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Today was bad....just awful traffic. I would have paid good money to have that 1" of snow be a CJ or fall as rain.

The worst driving is always when there’s not enough snow to keep people home, but just enough to slow everyone down and bring out the salt trucks.

[NorEastermass128]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty sharp cut off just NW of me on the ICON.

Sucking exhaust while S Weymouth blitzes?!

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is actually an interesting map to view vs the 10 to 1 I posted because you'll notice the 10 to 1 has higher amounts to the west but lower than Kuchera to the east....this shows how that CCB in eastern areas is when temps are crashing and much colder.

[SJonesWX]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty sharp cut off just NW of me on the ICON.

we dislike

[ineedsnow]

GFS might be good

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS might be good

Its awful...lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Shrung out dung. Ineedglasses?

[MJO812]

2 low scenario is interesting

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Its awful...lol

3 to 6 is awful?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

3 to 6 is awful?

You’re not getting 3-6 from that look bruh. Toss the clowns.

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

3 to 6 is awful?

Better check the mid level temps.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re not getting 3-6 from that look bruh. Toss the clowns.

ineedlessons.

[CoastalWx]

H5 kind of gets squashed on GFS. At hr120, you can see almost two seperate s/w's within the s/w trough itself. That won't allow that to dig much. Fighting each other in a way.

[MJO812]

Cmc has this for the 2nd low 

[dryslot]

This systems is a strung out mess.

[Hazey]

Always turds in the punchbowl. Virtually impossible to get a decently clean snowstorm look. 1 model goes high, then next one goes low. 

If the GFS can decide which s/w to hang it's hat on, we might get somewhere.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not that anyone bought it, but Icon tossed to the moon, obviously 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not that anyone bought it, but Icon tossed to the moon, obviously 

CMC was an improvement

[CoastalWx]

Kind of hard to buy or toss this far out.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The gfs is glorified snow or rain showers, full stop. Maybe the highest elevations in northern ORH get a couple 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of hard to buy or toss this far out.

There are still huge fundamental differences in the northern stream....GFS kind of presses it down in the middle of the storm which mucks it up. GGEM has it ahead of the southern shortwave so it had a little room to operate.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

There are still huge fundamental differences in the northern stream....GFS kind of presses it down in the middle of the storm which mucks it up. GGEM has it ahead of the southern shortwave so it had a little room to operate.

the PNA is also initially stronger, so the shortwave is a bit slower and more amped. we want slower here since it allows for more interaction with the energy diving through the Lakes as well as having the benefit of a slightly colder airmass

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are still huge fundamental differences in the northern stream....GFS kind of presses it down in the middle of the storm which mucks it up. GGEM has it ahead of the southern shortwave so it had a little room to operate.

Yep, curls it up under us, vs the GFS getting pushed SE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, curls it up under us, vs the GFS getting pushed SE.

ICON has the s stream system more negatively tilted, which allows it to amp and the GFS is very +....