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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.


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  On 1/24/2024 at 3:32 PM, ORH_wxman said:

SE areas might have a bit more upside than some of the lower elevations further west because the CCB will get cranking and eventually turn very cold as it draws in that more arctic airmass....so even if you "Waste" the first half of the storm, you could go to pound-town for 6-10 hours during the CCB with big rates and much colder temps.

It is still a needle-thread idea, but there is some upside there.

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Brett says no so it's definitely on

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  On 1/24/2024 at 3:30 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

It's starts out putrid but all models show the northern stream infusing cold air by the end. I'm not sold on anything major, but think a few inches is still in play. 

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It does definitely get cold at the end, no doubt, but does it happen fast enough. You need an icon like scenario to get warning amounts down here 

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  On 1/24/2024 at 4:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

Kind of hard to buy or toss this far out.

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There are still huge fundamental differences in the northern stream....GFS kind of presses it down in the middle of the storm which mucks it up. GGEM has it ahead of the southern shortwave so it had a little room to operate.

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  On 1/24/2024 at 4:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There are still huge fundamental differences in the northern stream....GFS kind of presses it down in the middle of the storm which mucks it up. GGEM has it ahead of the southern shortwave so it had a little room to operate.

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the PNA is also initially stronger, so the shortwave is a bit slower and more amped. we want slower here since it allows for more interaction with the energy diving through the Lakes as well as having the benefit of a slightly colder airmass

gem_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.thumb.gif.551befe698c31022f929c92849f48d5a.gif

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  On 1/24/2024 at 4:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There are still huge fundamental differences in the northern stream....GFS kind of presses it down in the middle of the storm which mucks it up. GGEM has it ahead of the southern shortwave so it had a little room to operate.

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Yep, curls it up under us, vs the GFS getting pushed SE.

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