Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

IDK. I’m not sold on a miracle thread the needler. It’s going to be shredded weak sauce event or a more consolidated amped one that hits north of us. The h5 look isn’t tickling me correctly. 

I will say the one thing I do like, and this kinda goes back to Will and I were just discussing, is that it does have a hang back look.
 

if you look at the isobars, you can definitely get a feel that there’s an extended sort of northeast flow look helping to keep moisture hanging around. It doesn’t mean it would be a lot of QPF, but definitely lingering snow as it gets very cold. There’s another s/w that comes in too.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

IDK. I’m not sold on a miracle thread the needler. It’s going to be shredded weak sauce event or a more consolidated amped one that hits north of us. The h5 look isn’t tickling me correctly. 

Not sold at all either.. But it's a threat on the board and a reason to eagerly look at 12z guidance today waiting for our 6 hourly dose of endorphins to hit lol 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say the one thing I do like, and this kinda goes back to Will and I were just discussing, is that it does have a hang back look.
 

if you look at the isobars, you can definitely get a feel that there’s an extended sort of northeast flow look helping to keep moisture hanging around. It doesn’t mean it would be a lot of QPF, but definitely lingering snow as it gets very cold. There’s another s/w that comes in too.

I think the weak sauce outcome is what we want around here anyway…with more mood and hangback snows. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Not sold at all either.. But it's a threat on the board and a reason to eagerly look at 12z guidance today waiting for a 6 hourly dose of endorphins lol 

Oh yea dude. I’m all in on tapping each cycle of runs into my veins…

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's better than zero. But, I think we all are hoping and waiting for that " Nemo " or " Juno " type storm 

Honestly, if its 3-4" on a Monday AM, I would rather miss it....give it to the SOP crew. No sarcasm at all....I just had a 2 hour commute for literally 1" of snow.

Not worth it.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly, if its 3-4" on a Monday AM, I would rather miss it....give it to the SOP crew. No sarcasm at all....I just had a 2 hour commute for literally 1" of snow.

Not worth it.

Yup, my commute was a train wreck this morning. Getting kind of old with these nuisance events. Getting to the point where we need a legit event or you can kiss climo goodbye 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, my commute was a train wreck this morning. Getting kind of old with these nuisance events. Getting to the point where we need a legit event or you can kiss climo goodbye 

Today was bad....just awful traffic. I would have paid good money to have that 1" of snow be a CJ or fall as rain.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup, my commute was a train wreck this morning. Getting kind of old with these nuisance events. Getting to the point where we need a legit event or you can kiss climo goodbye 

I work from home 4 days a week, so bring it. I can see your point though - I was stuck in 50 min of canal traffic a few weeks ago for 2.5 inches.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I work from home 4 days a week, so bring it. I can see your point though - I was stuck in 50 min of canal traffic a few weeks ago for 2.5 inches.  

I feel for the commuters. I used to make an hour trek each way years ago. Now WFHATT is wonderful for my sanity. 

[WinterWolf]

We have a 2hr delay…it’s a beautiful thing. When it really snows or ice..no school. So the best of all worlds with regards to any type of adverse weather.

But I too feel for the commuters …that’s no fun at all. So I can understand their plight. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We have a 2hr delay…it’s a beautiful thing. When it really snows or ice..no school. So the best of all worlds with regards to any type of adverse weather.

But I too feel for the commuters …that’s no fun at all. So I can understand their plight. 

If its a decent sized event, either I will get the day off, or be able to rationalize taking it off....but these last couple of week day events are brutal.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just took a look at the 6z eps def amped up quite a bit from 00z.. 

Here's the 50th percentile .. 90th percentile would imply an 8-12" ceiling so def a big improvement from 00z.. let's see if we can get that to continue .

....

 

It's a good thing I just got done explaining why this has limited amplification space, huh   

...well, it can amplify some within itself.   What we mean is that the N/stream specifically is a negative interference and won't help in this case. 

[Ginx snewx]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m trying for a 2015 mindset. Just need Ginx to tell me he went tobogganing on an inch of snow like he did that January and we’re off.

It was 2 to3 inches lol here are the pics. A foot of snow this Jan so far. Not bad.

 

 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..yesterday the sentiment was that it’s gonna trend north, north for CNE, and leave SNE mostly out.

Comical how the modeling many times goes in the opposite direction of the current thinking.  All of a sudden it’s now south.  This is Still morphing, nothing figured out yet. Changes to come still. 

Exactly. I seriously doubt there will be two distinct low pressure centers either. I think I've seen the GFS try that one before..

[Ginx snewx]

Traffic  lol what is that? Emass is a disaster.

[UnitedWx]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We have a 2hr delay…it’s a beautiful thing. When it really snows or ice..no school. So the best of all worlds with regards to any type of adverse weather.

But I too feel for the commuters …that’s no fun at all. So I can understand their plight. 

The key if you can is staying off the limited access highways and trying to take back roads if you're able to. Way too many people get sucked into taking the highway and it is the absolute worst place to be during any sort of snow event

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Traffic  lol what is that? Emass is a disaster.

Well, you just got broadband into Moosup. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Traffic  lol what is that? Emass is a disaster.

Traffic was horrendous when I drove from Cape Cod to Boston last May.

Took me over 2 hours 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, you just got broadband into Moosup. 

Think it was way before 2001 when I moved here but yea my traffic jams consist of 3 cars at a red light and it is what I prefer.  Why was traffic so bad? Roads were wet this morning DOT was on it all night. 

[Ginx snewx]

23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was 2 to3 inches lol here are the pics. A foot of snow this Jan so far. Not bad.

 

 

The tobogganing on an inch of concrete is a fabrication of a man who desperately wanted to get his kid out of the house sledding but EMASS got an inch. He got 100 in a month

[NorEastermass128]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Traffic was horrendous when I drove from Cape Cod to Boston last May.

Took me over 2 hours 

One afternoon last June took me 2.5 hours to get from Bedford, MA to Salem, MA.  128N is a cluster. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

One afternoon last June took me 2.5 hours to get from Bedford, MA to Salem, MA.  128N is a cluster. 

That was my first time driving up there. 

Boston is just like Manhattan with the traffic but with way less people. 

[Typhoon Tip]

mm, I suggest the 'hang back' aspect is the most vulnerable to being tamped S-E as a correction, owing to the untimely arrival of the N/stream into this whole thing.  

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

The tobogganing on an inch of concrete is a fabrication of a man who desperately wanted to get his kid out of the house sledding but EMASS got an inch. He got 100 in a month

Ok 1.5"

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

50 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Eps says game on

Sell. Putrid airmass out ahead of it. We are basically trying to hit a very small target of not super amped and not super weak.

[ORH_wxman]

We ICON....

 

 

 

Ok, the real models should be coming out soon.

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Sell. Putrid airmass out ahead of it. We are basically trying to hit a very small target of not super amped and not super weak.

It's starts out putrid but all models show the northern stream infusing cold air by the end. I'm not sold on anything major, but think a few inches is still in play. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's starts out putrid but all models show the northern stream infusing cold air by the end. I'm not sold on anything major, but think a few inches is still in play. 

Icon jacks you lol

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's starts out putrid but all models show the northern stream infusing cold air by the end. I'm not sold on anything major, but think a few inches is still in play. 

SE areas might have a bit more upside than some of the lower elevations further west because the CCB will get cranking and eventually turn very cold as it draws in that more arctic airmass....so even if you "Waste" the first half of the storm, you could go to pound-town for 6-10 hours during the CCB with big rates and much colder temps.

It is still a needle-thread idea, but there is some upside there.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

SE areas might have a bit more upside than some of the lower elevations further west because the CCB will get cranking and eventually turn very cold as it draws in that more arctic airmass....so even if you "Waste" the first half of the storm, you could go to pound-town for 6-10 hours during the CCB with big rates and much colder temps.

It is still a needle-thread idea, but there is some upside there.

The icon really slows this down. More of a Sunday night into Monday deal. That’s probably partially why it shows a big solution.