Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z Euro Kuchera. Not terribly thrilled with this run.

There she come 

[Prismshine Productions]

We are in that "models trend away" time frame, it will come back Sunday

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[Sey-Mour Snow]

Really no room to ramp this up.. No impressive members.. Thread the needle 3-6" type storm in a narrow strip for the max zone it seems .. 

[Snowcrazed71]

26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Really no room to ramp this up.. No impressive members.. Thread the needle 3-6" type storm in a narrow strip for the max zone it seems .. 

That's better than zero. But, I think we all are hoping and waiting for that " Nemo " or " Juno " type storm 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's better than zero. But, I think we all are hoping and waiting for that " Nemo " or " Juno " type storm 

I don’t think that’s walking through the door this season. We stat pad and hope we get enough cold to keep February wintry. 

[UnitedWx]

22 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's better than zero. But, I think we all are hoping and waiting for that " Nemo " or " Juno " type storm 

That would be fun, but good luck with that. We got really really spoiled in this area for many years, the '80s have to come back through the door at some point

[CoastalWx]

There she go

[Go Kart Mozart]

Cold layer will be thin with the high over western Hudson's Bay.  A lesser 2007 style sleet event?

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

That would be fun, but good luck with that. We got really really spoiled in this area for many years, the '80s have to come back through the door at some point

Oh they’ve come back , and have been here for the 3rd season now.   However, the big dog did happen even in the 80’s, ya just never know when it walks in. Obviously this threat isn’t it, but we have a good chunk of winter left to go, how it plays out is still an unknown.  But for now we nickle and dime.

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe a pike south deal !

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Really no room to ramp this up.. No impressive members.. Thread the needle 3-6" type storm in a narrow strip for the max zone it seems .. 

 

Yes, that is a good description for how this has evolved over the last few days.  'Lowering amplification space'

There's a techy reason for it which would glaze eyes over, ...cause a moment of pause before re-engaging in d-drip withdraw syndrome (haha).. but the simplest way to say it:   the N/stream is out of phase with this event/S/stream.

It's a bit of a race... At this point, if your a snow enthusiast you don't want the N/stream involved, because it's destructively interfering. It's arriving into the wrong aspects of the S/stream wave space; the manifestation of destructive interference is the 'flattening' we're observing.  If the N/stream gets any faster in that arrival, we whiff entirely S. 

So... long of the short, you take your chances on a marginal gunk polar atmosphere that just flips enough - 00z GFS operational best describes that.  Then your arctic boundary arrives and suppresses it all away. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe a pike south deal !

Maybe an NYC South deal.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe an NYC South deal.

Maybe with the 2nd wave 

[ORH_wxman]

Still quite a few robust members on 06z EPS (that strip way up near Canadian border is from this week, so you can ignore that for this storm)....so I don't think this one is relegated to nuisance yet....it may still trend that way, but that's a good number of warning events.

 

 

 

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe a pike south deal !

Lol..yesterday the sentiment was that it’s gonna trend north, north for CNE, and leave SNE mostly out.

Comical how the modeling many times goes in the opposite direction of the current thinking.  All of a sudden it’s now south.  This is Still morphing, nothing figured out yet. Changes to come still. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still quite a few robust members on 06z EPS (that strip way up near Canadian border is from this week, so you can ignore that for this storm)....so I don't think this one is relegated to nuisance yet....it may still trend that way, but that's a good number of warning events.

 

 

 

Wonder if those good members are ones that are slower to depart. The antecedent airmass is dogshit.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..yesterday the sentiment was that it’s gonna trend north, north for CNE, and leave SNE mostly out.

Comical how the modeling many times goes in the opposite direction of the current thinking.  All of a sudden it’s now south.  This is Still morphing, nothing figured out yet. Changes to come still. 

Scoots already said she’s gone. Locked to hit now 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if those good members are ones that are slower to depart. The antecedent airmass is dogshit.

Probably...you can see how there's a trailing "Tail" on the snow distribution on some of those bigger ones....it's also 10 to 1 maps so they will be overdone, esp in lower elevations. Hills over interior def have the best chance of good snows....I'm sure you'll be hoping MQE can triple your total.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scoots already said she’s gone. Locked to hit now 

Poor guy is broken…ya hate to see it. He needs to get away. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still quite a few robust members on 06z EPS (that strip way up near Canadian border is from this week, so you can ignore that for this storm)....so I don't think this one is relegated to nuisance yet....it may still trend that way, but that's a good number of warning events.

 

 

 

Just took a look at the 6z eps def amped up quite a bit from 00z.. 

Here's the 50th percentile .. 90th percentile would imply an 8-12" ceiling so def a big improvement from 00z.. let's see if we can get that to continue .

 

[SouthCoastMA]

I just want to give the kid a chance to sled, so I'll take an advisory type event if it happens. If anything, I like my chances more after 6z. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just took a look at the 6z eps def amped up quite a bit from 00z.. 

yeah, vort is stronger / slower and there are way more tucked in lows. it's a pretty big shift from the EPS at this range. usually it's slow to move

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably...you can see how there's a trailing "Tail" on the snow distribution on some of those bigger ones....it's also 10 to 1 maps so they will be overdone, esp in lower elevations. Hills over interior def have the best chance of good snows....I'm sure you'll be hoping MQE can triple your total.

  rain to snow is a lot better than snow to rain.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scoots already said she’s gone. Locked to hit now 

I’m trying for a 2015 mindset. Just need Ginx to tell me he went tobogganing on an inch of snow like he did that January and we’re off.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

  rain to snow is a lot better than snow to rain.

Imo rain to snow is always better.  Unless it changes over 10 minutes before it ends obviously. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

  rain to snow is a lot better than snow to rain.

Could be some coke lines OES later in the event as temps plummet. GFS has temps in the lower to mid 20s with OES at the end.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m trying for a 2015 mindset. Just need Ginx to tell me he went tobogganing on an inch of snow like he did that January and we’re off.

Lol.. I remember that. Couple of dogs riding with him, dropping doodies as they head down the hills.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Could be some coke lines OES later in the event as temps plummet. GFS has temps in the lower to mid 20s with OES at the end.

I saw that. We blow.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol.. I remember that. Couple of dogs riding with him, dropping doodies as they head down the hills.

Concussions and frozen dog shit flying into your face sounds like a great time. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just took a look at the 6z eps def amped up quite a bit from 00z.. 

Here's the 50th percentile .. 90th percentile would imply an 8-12" ceiling so def a big improvement from 00z.. let's see if we can get that to continue .

 

IDK. I’m not sold on a miracle thread the needler. It’s going to be shredded weak sauce event or a more consolidated amped one that hits north of us. The h5 look isn’t tickling me correctly.