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Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Prismshine Productions
Prismshine Productions

Nope, just a Brattleboro gal who loves looking at pretty colors on models and long peaceful walks in the snow with my soon-to-be wife (married next Wednesday) Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

dryslot
dryslot

Riding in Sn/Ip in Rangeley, Low vis, Lunchtime at Bald Mtn Camps, Don’t poke the bear.

dendrite
dendrite

ECMWF made the data free once they realized they f’d the model up

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/24/2024 at 12:09 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

That's better than zero. But, I think we all are hoping and waiting for that " Nemo " or " Juno " type storm 

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That would be fun, but good luck with that. We got really really spoiled in this area for many years, the '80s have to come back through the door at some point

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 1/24/2024 at 12:32 PM, UnitedWx said:

That would be fun, but good luck with that. We got really really spoiled in this area for many years, the '80s have to come back through the door at some point

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Oh they’ve come back , and have been here for the 3rd season now.   However, the big dog did happen even in the 80’s, ya just never know when it walks in. Obviously this threat isn’t it, but we have a good chunk of winter left to go, how it plays out is still an unknown.  But for now we nickle and dime.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/24/2024 at 11:42 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Really no room to ramp this up.. No impressive members.. Thread the needle 3-6" type storm in a narrow strip for the max zone it seems .. 

 

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Yes, that is a good description for how this has evolved over the last few days.  'Lowering amplification space'

There's a techy reason for it which would glaze eyes over, ...cause a moment of pause before re-engaging in d-drip withdraw syndrome (haha).. but the simplest way to say it:   the N/stream is out of phase with this event/S/stream.

It's a bit of a race... At this point, if your a snow enthusiast you don't want the N/stream involved, because it's destructively interfering. It's arriving into the wrong aspects of the S/stream wave space; the manifestation of destructive interference is the 'flattening' we're observing.  If the N/stream gets any faster in that arrival, we whiff entirely S. 

So... long of the short, you take your chances on a marginal gunk polar atmosphere that just flips enough - 00z GFS operational best describes that.  Then your arctic boundary arrives and suppresses it all away. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Still quite a few robust members on 06z EPS (that strip way up near Canadian border is from this week, so you can ignore that for this storm)....so I don't think this one is relegated to nuisance yet....it may still trend that way, but that's a good number of warning events.

image.png.baa044a4e9fa450b945b25cd675ce8d8.png

 

image.png.2b5323d8a0dc0586090ec26b68655028.png

 

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 1/24/2024 at 12:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe a pike south deal !

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Lol..yesterday the sentiment was that it’s gonna trend north, north for CNE, and leave SNE mostly out.

Comical how the modeling many times goes in the opposite direction of the current thinking.  All of a sudden it’s now south.  This is Still morphing, nothing figured out yet. Changes to come still. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/24/2024 at 1:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Still quite a few robust members on 06z EPS (that strip way up near Canadian border is from this week, so you can ignore that for this storm)....so I don't think this one is relegated to nuisance yet....it may still trend that way, but that's a good number of warning events.

image.png.baa044a4e9fa450b945b25cd675ce8d8.png

 

image.png.2b5323d8a0dc0586090ec26b68655028.png

 

 

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Wonder if those good members are ones that are slower to depart. The antecedent airmass is dogshit.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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  On 1/24/2024 at 1:20 PM, WinterWolf said:

Lol..yesterday the sentiment was that it’s gonna trend north, north for CNE, and leave SNE mostly out.

Comical how the modeling many times goes in the opposite direction of the current thinking.  All of a sudden it’s now south.  This is Still morphing, nothing figured out yet. Changes to come still. 

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Scoots already said she’s gone. Locked to hit now 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/24/2024 at 1:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if those good members are ones that are slower to depart. The antecedent airmass is dogshit.

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Probably...you can see how there's a trailing "Tail" on the snow distribution on some of those bigger ones....it's also 10 to 1 maps so they will be overdone, esp in lower elevations. Hills over interior def have the best chance of good snows....I'm sure you'll be hoping MQE can triple your total.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
  On 1/24/2024 at 1:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Still quite a few robust members on 06z EPS (that strip way up near Canadian border is from this week, so you can ignore that for this storm)....so I don't think this one is relegated to nuisance yet....it may still trend that way, but that's a good number of warning events.

image.png.baa044a4e9fa450b945b25cd675ce8d8.png

 

image.png.2b5323d8a0dc0586090ec26b68655028.png

 

 

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Just took a look at the 6z eps def amped up quite a bit from 00z.. 

Here's the 50th percentile .. 90th percentile would imply an 8-12" ceiling so def a big improvement from 00z.. let's see if we can get that to continue .

 

image.thumb.png.41e8b4978cd6245a543282e4e3de8fc5.png

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/24/2024 at 1:28 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Probably...you can see how there's a trailing "Tail" on the snow distribution on some of those bigger ones....it's also 10 to 1 maps so they will be overdone, esp in lower elevations. Hills over interior def have the best chance of good snows....I'm sure you'll be hoping MQE can triple your total.

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:lol:  rain to snow is a lot better than snow to rain.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/24/2024 at 1:38 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just took a look at the 6z eps def amped up quite a bit from 00z.. 

Here's the 50th percentile .. 90th percentile would imply an 8-12" ceiling so def a big improvement from 00z.. let's see if we can get that to continue .

 

image.thumb.png.41e8b4978cd6245a543282e4e3de8fc5.png

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IDK. I’m not sold on a miracle thread the needler. It’s going to be shredded weak sauce event or a more consolidated amped one that hits north of us. The h5 look isn’t tickling me correctly. 

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