RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 8:02 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Would not be shocked if this did a north shuffle. Expand Oh it will. Don’t be shocked, expect it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 8:02 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Would not be shocked if this did a north shuffle. Expand The Dendrite shuffle instead of the Messenger shuffle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 So, looks like Sunday night is the lion's share of this for the region....should have first call Thursday and final on Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 what in the world is going on with that op 18z GFS run? it looks confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 10:12 PM, DJln491 said: what in the world is going on with that op 18z GFS run? it looks confused.Got drunkSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Days and days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 That route 2 gradient has been a theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Disorganized mess 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 10:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Disorganized mess Expand I would ignore it for now...seem to be gaining a consensus among ensemble means.....12z was the high end of the envelop, this weak...OPs will OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Feeling pretty good about a solid event anywhere 10 miles or so inland away from coasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 Def want dynamics on your side in a setup where you start as rain and the colder air is filtering in during the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 10:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Feeling pretty good about a solid event anywhere 10 miles or so inland away from coasts Expand Keep us posted 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 10:47 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Feeling pretty good about a solid event anywhere 10 miles or so inland away from coasts Expand On 1/23/2024 at 10:53 PM, CoastalWx said: Keep us posted Expand I'll be sure to post how much solid rain I get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 That northern SW dives in and kicks this thing out. Canadian had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 10:53 PM, CoastalWx said: Keep us posted Expand You too . What don’t you like ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 11:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said: You too . What don’t you like ? Expand Prob how disorganized it is. I don’t necessarily like that either because you won’t get good accumulation with that look. There’s plenty of time to make this more consolidated but I think we’ll want to see this trend better in the next 2-3 cycles to be more confident in anything over high end advisory. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2024 Author Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 11:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: Prob how disorganized it is. I don’t necessarily like that either because you won’t get good accumulation with that look. There’s plenty of time to make this more consolidated but I think we’ll want to see this trend better in the next 2-3 cycles to be more confident in anything over high end advisory. Expand GEFs modestly improved... Also more spread closer to the Islands. fwiw - I just wonder if the operational GFS has the jitters about venturing the PNA across signs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 11:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: Prob how disorganized it is. I don’t necessarily like that either because you won’t get good accumulation with that look. There’s plenty of time to make this more consolidated but I think we’ll want to see this trend better in the next 2-3 cycles to be more confident in anything over high end advisory. Expand I don’t think this will a warning anywhere in SNE.. nothing that starts as rain usually is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 11:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t think this will a warning anywhere in SNE.. nothing that starts as rain usually is Expand It doesn’t have to start as rain…and when I say start as rain, I don’t mean for the first 20-40 minutes while the boundary layer evaporationally cools. Yeah technically that counts as “starting as rain”, but it doesn’t really materially affect the storm totals. I mean for like several hours while we wait for heights/midlevel temps to crash. There are several version of this storm where we are already cold enough aloft to snow in the beginning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2024 Share Posted January 23, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 11:24 PM, ORH_wxman said: It doesn’t have to start as rain…and when I say start as rain, I don’t mean for the first 20-40 minutes while the boundary layer evaporationally cools. Yeah technically that counts as “starting as rain”, but it doesn’t really materially affect the storm totals. I mean for like several hours while we wait for heights/midlevel temps to crash. There are several version of this storm where we are already cold enough aloft to snow in the beginning. Expand There was an event about 5 years ago or so in December .. started as heavy rain in the pre dawn hours. I remember because I was running in it early that morning . It flipped over to heavy , wet snow. We had 6” of pretty solid past nice it flipped over . I believe the lower spots and coasts also flipped but had less . 4-5 years ago or so . I bet you know the event . This reminds me of that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 11:41 PM, Damage In Tolland said: There was an event about 5 years ago or so in December .. started as heavy rain in the pre dawn hours. I remember because I was running in it early that morning . It flipped over to heavy , wet snow. We had 6” of pretty solid past nice it flipped over . I believe the lower spots and coasts also flipped but had less . 4-5 years ago or so . I bet you know the event . This reminds me of that . Expand 12/5/20? Sounds like your description. ORH had a 10” paste bomb in that. We had like 3-4” here and further east had like 1-2”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/24/2024 at 12:15 AM, ORH_wxman said: 12/5/20? Sounds like your description. ORH had a 10” paste bomb in that. We had like 3-4” here and further east had like 1-2”. Expand Yup … that would be the one. I knew ORH crushed it. When don’t they Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/24/2024 at 12:17 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Yup … that would be the one. I knew ORH crushed it. When don’t they Expand This actually looks colder than that one believe it or not. The one thing in that one though was the dynamics were very strong, esp in the first half of the storm. I want to see some better dynamics in this threat. A few model runs have had it but a lot more runs have been a bit disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/24/2024 at 12:21 AM, ORH_wxman said: This actually looks colder than that one believe it or not. The one thing in that one though was the dynamics were very strong, esp in the first half of the storm. I want to see some better dynamics in this threat. A few model runs have had it but a lot more runs have been a bit disorganized. Expand Does this event remind you in any way of that ? In looking at it .. to me there were some similarities. But yeah.. dynamics needed to entertain 6-10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 10:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Disorganized mess Expand If it’s not one thing, it’s another, but it seems like this has like 8 ways to be bad and 2 to be good. I want to believe, but you know how it’s been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/24/2024 at 12:46 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: If it’s not one thing, it’s another, but it seems like this has like 8 ways to be bad and 2 to be good. I want to believe, but you know how it’s been. Expand I’ll take 3-6 and throw a parade. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/23/2024 at 10:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Disorganized mess Expand Storm, or the GFS itself... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/24/2024 at 1:07 AM, UnitedWx said: Storm, or the GFS itself... Expand Euro is slightly flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2024 Share Posted January 24, 2024 On 1/24/2024 at 1:10 AM, MJO812 said: Euro is slightly flatter Expand That's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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