Monitoring the 29th/30th for significant impact coastal redevelopment - confidence only medium for now but is trending favorably.

[Typhoon Tip]

We'll see on this .. but feel it is at least worth monitoring at this point - if this doesn't happen, it will be an interesting series where a robust d(PNA) sign flip did not result in an identifiable restoring event.

( there may be a need for thread/ Tuesday overnight, particularly along and N of the Pike - this thread is not intended for that coverage ).

The backing for this is the (multi-day + multi sourced) index projection loudly signaling system emergence in the OV/TV to MA and New England regions in general, coupled with now both ensemble clusters and their operational runs beginning to finally see a cross-guidance identity in the flow. 

We had seen a lot of tussling in the dailies ( operational versions ) prior to that, an identity was lost to any corroborative sense, however. A lot of that is probably more acceptable than not, because ... this signal happens to be embedded in the +d(PNA), which for this evolution is a full sign change ( -PNA --> +PNA). That's a bit different than moving the index within the same positive(negative) the standard deviations - flipping the orientation of the mass field entirely is akin asking the operational runs to forecast through an inflection - complex but just inherently error prone.

So.. it's actually rather straight forward.  This is an emergence of an event that was heavily suggested by prior techniques to actually emerge - and that seems to be taking place now.  

Note, spread emerging along the NW arc ... This not uncommon for a +PNA emerging event, because the total stress in the field/"correction vector" is actually toward a sooner/west strengthening system, and the models are "beginning to detect" by having ensemble members beginning to pull the result set in that direction... This feels like a scenario where we are on the cusp of coalescing a more important low consensus between the D. Marv/CC-BM climate route.

[Heisy]

EPS following the OP..


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[Heisy]

Talk about a jump… 00z vs 12z lol





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[Sey-Mour Snow]

Pretty loud signal for day 6-7, but makes sense as Tip was saying... EPS has a mean over south tip of Delmarva , hugs NW of BM then scoots East of BM, some very strong lows in there.. 4-6" mean for SNE is pretty wild for day 6-7... 

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, Heisy said:

EPS following the OP..


.

I love it when trough axis start to "scoop" like that...   I was talking to prof back in the UML Lab days and I referred to that as 'fish hooking' tends to precede aggressive cyclogenesis.  He just sort of said, hm, while slowly nodding.   Later that afternoon he was giving a lecture and he said, " ...earlier a Met student referred to this structure as a fish hook"      ... I was like yeah.  Finally, a moment in college whence I didn't appear to be a complete dipshit -

I'm interesting it the interval comparison to the 00z ... I suspect this 12z above is more impressive in this regard/overall just because the consensus continues to improve the contributing/governing mechanics are likely also doing so.

[Prismshine Productions]

EPS 50/75/90 and 24h avg... One hell of a signal for over 1 week out

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[metagraphica]

Can't wait for my ~1" of snow.    Seriously though, this does look interesting for DIT on north.  The Ski areas will hopefully be happy with it.

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Can't wait for my ~1" of snow.    Seriously though, this does look interesting for DIT on north.  The Ski areas will hopefully be happy with it.

It is kind of sad for a fantasy storm. Used to be  looking at 45 to 50 inch totals in fantasy land.

[DavisStraight]

If nothing down here I hope central/northern New England does when I visit. Conditions are good now, hope they don't deteriorate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny, Tip's thread titles are as long as his posts.

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS: More than a mere tick N-W with this ...

Also .. .156 hours isn't terribly long to start considering things. 

first of which, noting the +PP N.  "Only" 1035, but that isn't a circumstance we've seen very often, if at all ( as far as I'm aware) in several years ... where we headbutt a cyclogen against a +PP N..

two, that is importing untainted polar air.  Despite the higher hgts ( 546 dm) the actual lower trop. hydrostats are going to be disproportionately cold.   This effects ptype.

This is predicated on that orientation being essentially correct.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, metagraphica said:

Can't wait for my ~1" of snow.    Seriously though, this does look interesting for DIT on north.  The Ski areas will hopefully be happy with it.

You should do “ok” even there !

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS: More than a mere tick N-W with this ...

Also .. .156 hours isn't terribly long to start considering things. 

first of which, noting the +PP N.  "Only" 1035, but that isn't a circumstance we've seen very often, if at all ( as far as I'm aware) in several years ... where we headbutt a cyclogen against a +PP N..

two, that is importing untainted polar air.  Despite the higher hgts ( 546 dm) the actual lower trop. hydrostats are going to be disproportionately cold.   This effects ptype.

This is predicated on that orientation being essentially correct.

 

I wonder if we don't see late QPF bumps upward via intense isentropic lift assuming that idea works out...

[Prismshine Productions]

18z GEFS bumped the low avg NW over 12z

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[512high]

It would be nice to get this in while we are still in "January", ....going into Feb. at the start are we still "mild" ?

[metagraphica]

5 hours ago, kdxken said:

It is kind of sad for a fantasy storm. Used to be  looking at 45 to 50 inch totals in fantasy land.

"Welcome to regression" as they say. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

00z GFS is looking much much more like the earlier Euro. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z GFS is looking much much more like the earlier Euro. 

Touch colder, but yea... 

[Prismshine Productions]

Boom, get IP/ZR base coat then all glory after

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[CoastalWx]

No thanks. Hopefully it cuts into NY state.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the gfs sobered up from its cold predictions in the extended.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Horrific trends on this one overnight, with EURO and GFS pretty similar on a primary into Cleveland

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the gfs sobered up from its cold predictions in the extended.

ya, what a joke, we knew it would happen with no support.. Looks like we got into Feb 10+ before a real wintry threat emerges .. 

[SouthCoastMA]

35 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya, what a joke, we knew it would happen with no support.. Looks like we got into Feb 10+ before a real wintry threat emerges .. 

Our last legit threat for the next 2+ weeks trended warmer, plus the long range confirmed to back down the toilet. 

Still some time for the day 5/6 to trend a bit colder with the secondary forming earlier and/or an earlier infuse of the polar air moving south...I guess.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Boom, get IP/ZR base coat then all glory after

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Looks decent.

[Damage In Tolland]

This one still looks good thankfully 

[SouthCoastMA]

So, whats the deal with the primary now gaining more latitude..northern stream now much slower and not diving south as much as previous runs? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

So, whats the deal with the primary now gaining more latitude..northern stream now much slower and not diving south as much as previous runs? 

Not sure where that came from. Nothing has changed on this one. It’s a costal that goes from rain to ice to snow 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure where that came from. Nothing has changed on this one. It’s a costal that goes from rain to ice to snow 

yesterdays runs did not start as rain. everything shifted north 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

yesterdays runs did not start as rain. everything shifted north 

NS last 6 gfs runs