Layman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Sunny all day down here, hit 48 for a high, my car felt like a greenhouse, didn't need the heat on at all, must have hit Tippys sun angle day. Shortly after I posted that the sun did make an appearance. Only able to muster a high of 45.5. Decent for February but we were hoping for 50+. Even let the wood stove die down in anticipation. We'll try again tomorrow and then shift gears to snow removal early next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Clipper showing up for next Friday. 1-3/2-4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Clipper showing up for next Friday. 1-3/2-4” It's impressive how persistent that's been in the guidance considering it's a torpedo in the N/stream ...tracing back it's coming from Siberia. Like how in the f is the modeling doing that ? But.. I wouldn't begin to speculate who gets what and where in that. "Little critters that Bite" bite because of the erratic/unpredictability of their nature. just sayn' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I don't see much to be excited about RE the 20th yet....seems a good bet to go out south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't see much to be excited about RE the 20th yet....seems a good bet to go out south. It’s a clipper late week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It’s a clipper late week No, that is the 16th...different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, that is the 16th...different. Monday night / Tuesday may be it” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Monday night / Tuesday may be it” Yea, could be....I feel like later February is a lot of smoke and mirrors/H5 animations right now. I don't see anything too cohesive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, could be....I feel like later February is a lot of smoke and mirrors/H5 animations right now. I don't see anything too cohesive. Still time for a few things to pop. But you kind of get the sense it’s fleeting over the next 2-3 weeks. Hard to believe we aren’t far from Morch now . Time flies , winters are short .. especially when full months are lost . Something I learned long ago .. “ don’t lose full months or more” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Still time for a few things to pop. But you kind of get the sense it’s fleeting over the next 2-3 weeks. Hard to believe we aren’t far from Morch now . Time flies winters are short .. especially when full months are lost I agree...it's not a long window...Tuesday, 2/20 and maybe one more shot at a biggie after that before things go to crap again, IMO............I don't buy all of the "PV will save March" crap. Maybe it prevents a complete torch, but I don't think it will be a good month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree...it's not a long window...Tuesday, 2/20 and maybe one more shot at a biggie after that before things go to crap again, IMO............I don't buy all of the "PV will save March" crap. Maybe it prevents a complete torch, but I don't think it will be a good month. Well to be honest…yesterday you saw this potential coming up on Tuesday the 13th, as just another way in which we could be get more porked(no real upside). So sometimes you can be a little quick to judge things too. Don’t mean that in a bad way at all, because you do great work, and I’m a big fan of that work, but just that sometimes things can change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well to be honest…yesterday you saw this potential coming up on Tuesday the 13th, as just another way in which we could be get more porked(no real upside). So sometimes you can be a little quick to judge things too. Don’t mean that in a bad way at all, because you do great work, and I’m a big fan of that work, but just that sometimes things can change. I'm not can cancelling anything.....all I am saying is that I would like to see few runs realize some of this potential. But yes, I'm human. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Tomorrow is going to be a fun day. With temperatures around 60 I'm going to sit outside and watch the Bruins game...all while tracking a big snoowstorm...love it!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not can cancelling anything.....all I am saying is that I would like to see few runs realize some of this potential. But yes, I'm human. I 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Tomorrow is going to be a fun day. With temperatures around 60 I'm going to sit outside and watch the Bruins game...all while tracking a big snoowstorm...love it!! Whiffle ball with the kids, weenie ball with the freaks. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Whiffle ball with the kids, weenie ball with the freaks. I actually should take some time and pull one of Steve's favorite chores...picking up dog poop. There's a few month surplus out in the backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Driveway is a mix of solid ice and muck. Hoping tomorrow can finally finish off the ice. Trying to get at it with the tractor just results in a torn up drive. Bonus picture of the river behind the house. Could tell it was running a little stronger from melt, but I'm curious to see how much it'll get going by the end of tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 -PNA, +NAO... EwSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: -PNA, +NAO... Ew Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk It's getting late in the season where the PNA loses its influence. -PNA is actually good in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: -PNA, +NAO... Ew Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Still some split flow there with a weak ridge axis in western NAMER. Trough in the east. Ridging over Greenland. PV over Hudson Bay. It’s nothing epic, but we can snow with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 These were the best of times.. these were the worst of times…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Still some split flow there with a weak ridge axis in western NAMER. Trough in the east. Ridging over Greenland. PV over Hudson Bay. It’s nothing epic, but we can snow with that. Especially up here. We don’t want strong -nao, and we like -pna when there is a little help on the Atlantic side. That’s a good late winter pattern up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Sigh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Epic pattern past the 20th is gone but it never was. Need to stop looking at 300 hour plus ensembles. Weeklies need to not be run. I never bought into the PNA, it just never made any sense given the pattern we have been in with the strong PAC extensions, Nino, Maritime forcing etc. SSW and PV splits also have driven the cold each time on the other side of the pole, they need to be examined in the context of the pattern and forcing 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I actually should take some time and pull one of Steve's favorite chores...picking up dog poop. There's a few month surplus out in the backyard. I do it everyday. Got another foster pup. Comet another lab mix. 4 months old. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Epic pattern past the 20th is gone but it never was. Need to stop looking at 300 hour plus ensembles. Weeklies need to not be run. I never bought into the PNA, it just never made any sense given the pattern we have been in with the strong PAC extensions, Nino, Maritime forcing etc. SSW and PV splits also have driven the cold each time on the other side of the pole, they need to be examined in the context of the pattern and forcing You trolls need to stay in your lane 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Epic pattern past the 20th is gone but it never was. Need to stop looking at 300 hour plus ensembles. Weeklies need to not be run. I never bought into the PNA, it just never made any sense given the pattern we have been in with the strong PAC extensions, Nino, Maritime forcing etc. SSW and PV splits also have driven the cold each time on the other side of the pole, they need to be examined in the context of the pattern and forcing Actually a good post! Not just a shot of an unfavorable map, but some solid reasoning. Keep doing that, please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This reminds me of an early November air mass the last 24 hours. 54 yesterday was the ping high but it was more likely 52-ish in the ambience. Then it was down to 29 this AM with lots of frost... Now, we're supposedly heading for 60 F - apparently a record out at Logan. But considering the record highs we've seen take place over the last 7 years in February's ... kind of seems like a low bar achievement. lol. Anyway, it's not a warm burst" event to make 60 out of today if you ask me. Not when there's frost in the morning... It's just a mild up - Overnight we fropa but 850's only down to 0C ... I've seen 60 F over snow pack with and 850 mb of 0C in mid February. Tomorrow seems like an easy MOS buster day... feeble wind from 300 ds degs at 8 knots, and zip cloud ... screams super -adiabatic highs. I'm just suggesting that we'll probably still eclipse 50 and might send sun-exposed "nook temperatures" pretty warm relative to the ambience - ... I know, only an excruciating nerd thinks about this kind of tedium but that's how I roll. I have a fetish about this stuff from mid Feb to early May. What can I say. Tomorrow night is when it gets cold. Tomorrow sets the area up with a prep atmosphere...and when the sun goes down we quickly hemorrhage the gossamer BL warmth to space. It'll be something like mid 20s over top low DPs. That's our event entrance air mass... Man, saturate that and if anything, the models are too warm in BL. ..which is a better performance than we've seen in recent years. I don't know what's going on later in the week with that clipper/"critter" idea ..seems to have vanished. Meh... it was fragile to begin with so no expectations on that. In fact, the pattern remains rife with potential out there between the 19th and 26th or so... It a good period for speculation - we just don't have much of an emerged system. But that's the thing with featureless volatility ... if the models realize something and inject it into that domain, outlooks can change rather quickly... So when we say 20th or 24th or 27th ...these just periods to watch for that. But that's an energetic flow with lots of hydrostatic gradient N/S through the mid latitude continent - it's higher octane. Get a load of the 00z Euro with -30 to -38 C at 850 mb over southern Canada out there at the end of the run. That region SE of there that has that open COL look? That's a placeholder just anxiously waiting for a one of those features to be injected into it like a 16 year-old waits for the panty's to uncling 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Well at least the GFS looks like fun @ 12z for PDIII.....That cold air coming in behind it as well is impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Tomorrow is going to be a fun day. With temperatures around 60 I'm going to sit outside and watch the Bruins game...all while tracking a big snoowstorm...love it!! Ad an IPA or two and it don't get better than that in February Paulie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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